One of the most fascinating aspects of the NFL season is watching two teams play each other for the second time. Adjustments are made. Location and field changes. And despite the same two logos appearing on the uniforms, the players wearing them usually have changed. All of these will apply when the Seahawks travel to Santa Clara to take on the San Francisco 49ers five weeks after they Thursday Night matchup in Seattle.
Seattle was in first place in the division entering that game, but had lost two straight. They are now in last place, and are under .500 for the first time after losing 5 of their last 6 games. The 49ers had lost their first two division games and were reeling at 2-3. They won that game convincingly and have won two straight as they try to climb back into the division race.
Both teams will look massively different on the field. San Francisco has lost a star player in Brandon Aiyuk, and welcomed back a star player in Christian McCaffrey. The Seahawks defense will look almost completely different, with at least eight players joining the fray who did not play in the first game.
Seattle was embarrassed on their home field in week six. Geno Smith and D.K. Metcalf had games they would like to forget. Smith threw an interception on the first series after the Seahawks had driven down to the 49ers 25-yard line. Jordan Mason had the first of a number of explosive rushing plays on the next series when he broke out for 38 yards to key a 90-yard drive for a field goal. The 49ers would tack on a 76 and 77-yard touchdown drive as they went ahead 16-0.
The Seahawks would eventually fall behind 23-3 before a kickoff return for touchdown by Laviska Shenault Jr. (who had fumbled earlier) and 94-yard touchdown drive pulled Seattle within one score at 23-17. Seattle had two straight possessions with a chance to take the lead, but a poor route by Metcalf led to an interception.
Seattle lost the turnover battle 3-0, had their quarterback and best receiver struggle, surrendered an eye-gouging 228 yards rushing, and still were in this game into the late fourth quarter. Seahawks fans would like to believe that was an aberration, but there have been a number of games where Murphy’s Law seemed to rule the day this season.
The 49ers have not yet found the same dominant gear they hit last year or the year prior. A beat-up Bucs squad nearly stole a game this weekend, even with McCaffrey back in the lineup. The Tale of the Tape will show you that the 49ers are the superior team in nearly every way.
There are some intangibles that make this a more intriguing game than most will believe. Seattle played their most impressive defensive game before the bye week, and seemed to have found some backbone against the run. They are coming off a bye week where the coaching staff had plenty of time to prepare and adjust for this game. Smith knows he has yet to beat this team and is coming off a performance where he apologized to the city for letting them down. The most leaky part of the offensive line, right tackle, could get a big lift if Abe Lucas plays as expected. Metcalf returns after missing two games and his receiving partner, Jaxon Smith-Njigba found a new gear while he was out.
The 49ers are rightly favored by 6.5 points in this one. Nobody gives the Seahawks a chance. Most people are expecting a blowout. I think Seattle surprises everyone and shocks the 49ers at home.
The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories.
Changes since last matchup
Performance trends
There were so many changes since the last game that I decided to capture them in this new section of Tale of the Tape. The first part attempts to get a feel for which players are playing better or worse than they were when these two teams faced off in week six. Week 6-10 performances are included in the second column, and the difference between their early season grades and more recent grades show in the final column.
It was a little surprising to see that most players on the Seahawks offense have seen their grades improve. It is worth noting that Stone Forsythe will not play in this game, and Noah Fant is likely out as well. Improvement is relative. The actual grades for the offensive players are pretty unimpressive. Anthony Bradford has seen an increase in his grade, but he’s still a below average guard. No Seahawk is above an 80.0, which denotes Pro Bowl level play.
Renardo Green has made a major step forward for the 49ers, and is playing a near elite level at corner. That has helped the 49ers pass defense make big strides. Malik Mustapha has fully taken over the starting safety spot and has been playing solid football. Nick Bosa and Fred Warner have dropped off after playing at All-Pro levels.
Brock Purdy has come back to earth a bit. He had a 3 interception game against the Chiefs and has thrown just 3 touchdowns since playing Seattle. He has 6 turnover-worthy throws in the last three games after having just 4 in the first six. He has also fumbled in each of the last two games and been sacked 5 times.
Part of that is due to a big step back from Trent Williams, who went from elite to above average. As goes Williams, usually goes Purdy. Colton McKivitz, the other tackle, has also struggled recently. In fact, every linemen regressed except for rookie Dominick Puni. Brandon Aiyuk has been replaced by Ricky Pearsall, who has roughly the same grade (68).
Riq Woolen has had a disastrous two game stretch that has torpedoed his grade. Julian Love has regressed after an elite start to the year. Derick Hall took a big step back and has not been the pass rushing presence he was when the season started. The only players who have improved are Byron Murphy II and Coby Bryant. These tables do not show the new players, however, so let’s talk about who will be stepping in for both teams.
Lineup changes
All of the talk will be about the changes for the 49ers. That makes sense when you add the reigning offensive player of the year back to the lineup in McCaffrey. Pearsall is a different player than Aiyuk who presents different pros and cons. He did just have his first touchdown against Tampa.
Kevin Givens has missed two straight games with a groin injury. His availability for this week is unknown. George Odum got the majority of starting safety snaps versus the Seahawks, but he got zero snaps against Tampa on defense. Mustapha has taken all of those snaps.
That is a lot of change. The addition of Lucas on the offensive line could be a huge difference. Even if Lucas is rusty and not his former self, he almost certainly has more to offer than either Forsythe in week six or rookie Mike Jerrell. Forsythe gave up 10(!!) pressures in the first matchup. That is a low bar.
This defense is basically getting a fresh start. There is less that is the same than there is that has changed. Johnathan Hankins will still play, but Murphy has jumped him in snaps and was not available in week six. Roy Robertson-Harris was acquired after the 49ers game and represents a big upgrade over Mike Morris physically. Dre’Mont Jones was asked to play a fair amount of defensive tackle in week six, and has now returned to being an edge.
Boye Mafe played limited snaps against the 49ers as he was returning from injury. He should be fully back. The whole starting linebacker corps has changed over. Earnest Jones IV and Tyrice Knight are upgrades against the run, and possibly in coverage. Woolen missed the first game. Josh Jobe had not yet played. Coby Bryant was not getting meaningful snaps and Jerrick Reed II is poised to get his first snaps on defense with K’Von Wallace going on IR.
This is going to feel like watching a season opener when the Seahawks are on defense. There is a lot of unknown, and most of it seems like an improvement.
DVOA
New this season, Tale of the Tape will feature DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective. You can get 15% off an FTN subscription if you use promo code HBAM. It’s less than $8/mo and I’ve been a subscriber for a while. Be sure to get the FTN+ or greater sub to access StatsHub.
The 49ers have every edge except for special teams, defending WR2, and defending RBs as receivers out of the backfield. Their run defense (20th) is not great, and their run offense has been far less efficient this year than in the past.
Seattle has dropped in defending WR3, but it will be interesting to see if that changes with the increased playing time for Jobe. Tight end pass coverage will be worth monitoring as well with two new linebackers and two new safeties in the mix.
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
49ers key advantages on defense
Bosa is a monster who feasted on Forsythe and the Seahawks OL to the tune of 14 pressures. Warner is still the best inside ‘backer in football even if his heroic plays have slowed. Green is becoming a great corner and Mustapha has become a quality safety.
This is a more sound defense than the one that came to Seattle. There are not a lot of easy plays to be made.
Seahawks key advantages on offense
Believe it or not, Smith has the most passing yards by far against the 49ers this season. His 312 yards far exceeds Sam Darnold’s 268 yards. Patrick Mahomes only threw for 154 yards and had 2 interceptions with 0 touchdowns. Smith did not just pile up numbers in garbage time. He had most of his yards by the end of the third quarter, and did it despite having his most inaccurate game of the season where he missed some easy throws he normally makes.
He should have his full compliment of weapons back. They may be more effective on the ground with Lucas at right tackle. His run blocking was always more impressive than his pass protection.
It sounds like the Seahawks may do more work from under center, so there could be some advantage for Seattle early on if they find success with formations and plays the 49ers have not seen on tape.
Seattle gained the second-most yards and scored the third-most points of any offense against this 49ers defense even with three turnovers.
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
49ers key advantages on offense
Purdy was under a ton of pressure by the Seahawks in the first game but managed to wriggle out of it time and again. He now has his favorite target back in the fold with McCaffrey, and is getting more comfortable throwing to Pearsall.
Jennings played his first game at the X spot against Tampa and was terrific. Samuel has routinely terrorized the Seahawks, as has George Kittle. San Francisco continues to have an overwhelming number of weapons on offense and a playmaking quarterback.
Seahawks key advantages on defense
The improvements on the defensive line and at linebacker are considerable. That group, minus Knight, had a terrific game against the Rams. The run defense was stellar. If they can win the line of scrimmage in this game, fun things could happen for Seattle.
They generated 26 pressures when these teams played last. Jones led the team with 6. Reed and Williams had 5 apiece. Add Murphy to that mix and get the edge players going again and there is reason for some optimism. They did all of that without defending the run. Any type of early down success could unlock some of Macdonald’s more exotic pressures as we saw against the Rams when Seattle had the most unblocked pressures of any team in the NFL that week.
Woolen, even with his recent struggles, is a huge upgrade of Pritchett. Witherspoon is coming off his most complete performance. Jobe will be tested.
Jones IV is a huge upgrade at middle linebacker. Knight should be an upgrade in run defense.
Special Teams
Seattle has the edge on special teams. Jake Moody missed three field goals before making the game winner last week. The 49ers punter is hurt and may not play. That could impact holding for kicks.
Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!