The game against the Jets was one of those high variance matchups when the NFL schedule was released. Aaron Rodgers was set to finally play and possibly power what had been a terrible offense to at least respectability while the defense was in the conversation for best in the NFL. If everything went as hoped for New York, this could have been one of the tougher games on the Seahawks slate.
Almost nothing went as hoped. Rodgers has been disappointing. Receiver Garrett Wilson has not gelled with Rodgers, and even former Packers teammate Davante Adams has not been an impact player since acquired via midseason trade. Breece Hall, their version of Kenneth Walker III, has struggled behind a suspect offensive line. The defense started reasonably well, but has taken a dive since head coach Robert Saleh was fired. Now, their general manager has been let go as well.
At 3-8, the season is lost for these Jets. They have lost 7 of their last 8 games. All that is left is playing for pride and future contracts. It would be easy for the Seahawks to let their guard down just a bit after three straight division games. That would be a potentially season-defining mistake.
Rodgers has not been great, but he still boasts 17 TDs and just 7 INTs. Wilson and Adams and Hall are as talented of a skill player trio as Seattle will face. Given how much the Seahawks offense has struggled of late, even just a small hiccup from the Seattle defense could allow more points than their offense could counter.
New York is built to stop the pass. They have excellent cover corners and linebackers, and a disruptive pass rush that ranks 2nd in the NFL in sack rate. Falling behind this team allows them to play defense on their terms. Attacking them on the ground is your best bet, and Seattle has been unable to do that all season. The Jets have allowed 110+ yards rushing in 8 of their 11 games.
This is one of those uncomfortable games where the record indicates Seattle is playing a bad team, but the roster tells a different story. New York is the opposite of the Arizona Cardinals in some ways, where the results are far less than the sum of the parts. Take Sauce Gardiner. He is having a rough season, but anyone who thinks he is now easy pickings at cornerback is asking for trouble.
The Seahawks will have to at least match their level of play from the last three games to win this one. They will probably need a better on offense. The best case for that happening is that New York is one of the heaviest man cover teams in the NFL, and Geno Smith has had some of his best games this season going against man cover teams like Detroit and New England.
The forecast calls for a high of around 37 degrees and clear skies. Rodgers and Adams certainly have experience playing in cold weather. I would like to think the Seahawks could keep the good times rolling against a struggling Jets team, but the matchup is rough for the offense. They will need to run the ball better than they have all season. Betting on that is hard to do right now. New York has a good chance to ruin Thanksgiving weekend for Seahawks fans.
The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories.
Fresh Faces
New York invested in their offensive line this offseason and have had mixed results. Tyron Smith, the future Hall of Fame tackle, has been okay but missed the last game with injury and is expected to be out a while. Rookie Olu Fashanu has stepped in and struggled as most rookies linemen do. That could create a pass rush surface for Seattle to exploit as the rest of the line is pretty solid.
Kicker Greg Zuerlein was having a terrible season before he was injured. He remains on IR and New York will roll with Spencer Shrader, who made both his kicks against the Colts before the bye week.
Receiver Allen Lazard went down with an injury a few weeks ago and was placed on IR. He is not expected back for this game.
Edge rusher Haason Reddick missed the first 7 weeks due to a contract dispute and has played between 37-57% of the snaps in the four games since.
Safety Chuck Clark returned to action before the bye, taking all the snaps from Tony Adams.
Seattle should be getting TE Noah Fant back in the lineup after missing four weeks with a groin injury. Anthony Bradford is unlikely to play, and early indications are that rookie Sataoa Laumea could see his first action of the year.
DVOA
New this season, Tale of the Tape will feature DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective. You can get 15% off an FTN subscription if you use promo code HBAM. It’s less than $8/mo and I’ve been a subscriber for a while. Be sure to get the FTN+ or greater sub to access StatsHub.
If you want to feel optimistic about this game for Seattle, this is the table to fixate on. The Seahawks have advantages almost across the board, per FTN and DVOA. This is the first time in a while Seattle has been the better DVOA team heading into a game.
DVOA really does not like the Jets offense or their defense. Opponent adjustments pull down these rankings. The only teams New York has beat are the Titans, the Patriots, and the short-handed Texans. They have allowed 25+ points in four of their last five games after doing it only once in their first six.
Their inability to defense the running back as a receiver could be something Seattle can exploit.
Seahawks Offense vs Jets Defense
Jets key advantages on defense
Sauce Gardner, DJ Reed, and Michael Carter II are an elite cornerback trio. It will be hard to believe anything else in spite of some uneven play this season. Gardner, in particular, has struggled.
Quinnen Williams is the most disruptive interior defensive lineman the Seahawks have faced since the Rams game, and that did not go well. Whether it is Laumea or Christian Haynes, the Jets will try to get Williams matched up against the right guard and wreak havoc.
Will McDonald IV is an excellent speed rusher on the edge who has 8.0 sacks. He will be a handful for either Abe Lucas or Charles Cross. Redick can be a game-wrecker as well. Although, he has not been as dominant since returning.
Rookie Leonard Taylor III has had some good performances of late on the inside. Linebacker Jamien Sherwood has been excellent most of the year, and Quincy Williams is solid as well.
Seahawks key advantages on offense
It has become pretty bleak on offense. They are inefficient and have a turnover problem. Smith will have his latest version of a “revenge game” against the team that drafted him.
This will be the first time in over a month he will have his full slate of weapons with Fant and Metcalf in the lineup.
Walker was electric against the Cardinals even if the results were unremarkable. Mike Macdonald believes they are close to a breakthrough on the ground. This would be an ideal game for that to happen. Walker did go for 133 yards against the Jets his rookie year.
Metcalf only had 1 catch for 3 yards in that game. Smith had to work his tight ends with touchdown passes to Colby Parkinson and Tyler Mabry. Fant was the leading receiver with 40 yards.
Jets Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Jets key advantages on offense
The Jets offensive line is pretty solid and talented. It will be harder for the Seattle front four to dominate the way they did against the Cardinals.
Rodgers, Wilson, Adams, and Hall are dangerous even if Rodgers looks washed up. He is savvy and can still draw defenders offsides to get free plays and make some remarkable throws.
Their offense has protected the ball well, ranking 9th in the NFL in giveaways.
Seahawks key advantages on defense
New York has done nothing particularly well this year. They bog down on drives and have missed a ton of field goals.
They have not been explosive or efficient in either the run or the pass. Seattle should feel good about their chances to stuff the run game and force the Jets into uncomfortable 3rd and long situations. Rodgers has helped the Jets rank relatively well in those scenarios with a 30.6% conversion rate (8th in the NFL). The problem for New York is he will also force things. The Jets have the second-highest turnover rate on 3rd and long (6.9%) in the league.
Hall can struggle in pass protection, which could give Devon Witherspoon a chance to make a big play.
Fashanu at left tackle should also be a weakness the Seahawks can exploit.
Special Teams
The Jets kicking has stabilized since Zuerlein went on IR. They struggle in the return game, which has led to poor average starting field position.
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