The Arizona Cardinals are a joke. They have almost 100 more losses than the nearest NFL franchise, and the 3rd-lowest winning percentage, ahead of only the Jaguars and the Bucs. They have never won a Super Bowl and only appeared in one. It is almost impossible to be this irrelevant for this long in a league designed for parity. Somehow, they have managed to do the impossible.

It appeared they were headed toward another forgettable era when they hired Jonathan Gannon as the head coach last year. His early filmed appearances interacting with his team made everyone cringe. This did not seem like someone ready to lead alpha males. Their first season was bad enough to get 4th overall pick in the draft. They had the good fortune of seeing the consensus top player in the draft, wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., fall to them only to see him largely underperform expectations.

The defense features mostly players nobody has heard of. The offense has a #1 overall pick at quarterback who has numerous questions about his ability to lead a team to success. Through it all, this Cardinals team has found a way to climb out of the muck and become one of the most gritty teams in the NFL.

Credit goes to a coaching staff that is getting considerably more out of their players than the talent would project. That no-name defense has held their last two opponents under 10 points. Cardinals fans have not seen their defense do that since 2016. This was just the third time it has happened since 1980.

They are undefeated in the NFC West, and sit atop the division. They have impressive victories over the Rams and 49ers and Chargers. Their losses are to quality opponents in the Bills, Packers, Commanders, and Lions. They have won 5 of their last 6 games, and are coming off their bye week.

This is a good team, and that is a good thing.

Muscles are not built by lifting light weights. Resistance builds strength. Seattle went into the home of the 49ers and beat their tormenters. They have played two excellent defensive games in a row against division rivals. This Sunday represents a chance for Mike Macdonald and his defense to announce their arrival in the NFC West.

Kyler Murray represents a different sort of challenge as a quarterback. Brock Purdy is an effective scrambler. Murray is a home run threat. He has managed to protect the ball well this season, throwing only 3 interceptions and completing over 69% of this passes.

James Connor is a battering ram and the heart of the offense. He has over 100 scrimmage yards in every game but four. The Cardinals are 1-3 in those four games, with the only victory coming against a Dolphins team that choked away a sure win.

Limiting Connor is the key to this game. Yes, the Cardinals have weapons in the passing game, but this is a team that has rushed for under 140 yards just four times (same four). They scored 13 points in two of those four games.

Limiting Connor would have been a laughable concept for this Seahawks defense just two games ago. The turnaround has been sudden and dramatic. They have gone from a team that was 26th in the NFL in opponent rushing success rate in the first eight weeks to a team that is 6th in that metric the last two weeks while facing two of the top rushing offenses in the league.

This will be a battle between a rock and a hard place. Too often, the Seahawks have been the one to yield in recent years. This game represents a chance to set a new standard and send a new message.

The Cardinals defense, while spunky, is susceptible to good passing attacks. They are among the worst teams in the league in generating pressure. There are some similarities to the Falcons defense the Seahawks scorched for 34 points.

Macdonald emphasizes the notion of stacking wins. He means wins during each rep, each practice, and each game. Seattle has a chance to stack back-to-back wins for the first time since week three of the season. The Cardinals deserve to be 6-4 and on top of this division. They will soon be 6-5.

The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories. 

Fresh Faces

Arizona will be getting back some players for this game. Prized free agent right tackle Jonah Williams is expected to come of injured reserve this week and return to his starting spot. Kelvin Beachum has done well in his place, so it is unclear how much of an upgrade this will represent.

First round pick DE Darius Robinson is expected to play in his first game of the season. That would be a big boost for a pass rush that has struggled. Arizona traded for edge rusher Baron Browning from the Broncos before the deadline. He played his first game for them before the bye and had a couple of pressures. This will be Browning’s second game at Lumen Field this season. He was here with the Broncos in Week 1, and had 1 pressure.

Sean Murphy-Bunting returned to the lineup in Week 10 after missing a couple of games, which has meant fewer snaps for rookie CB Max Melton.

Seattle will look forward to having RT Abe Lucas and C Olu Oluwatimi start for the second time this season after each had stellar debuts against the 49ers. There is a chance S Rayshawn Jenkins could be activated off IR.

It seems unlikely either of the Seahawks return men (Dee Williams, Laviska Shenault Jr) will play in this game. Cody White and Kenny McIntosh substituted for them in SF. The team may make different decisions with a full week to plan.

TE Noah Fant might return, but there has been little indication other than that the team will not put him on injured reserve. This would be the fourth straight week he was unavailable if he does not suit up.

LB Tyrice Knight will get his second straight start, while LB Ernest Jones will make his fourth as a Seahawk.

DVOA

New this season, Tale of the Tape will feature DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective. You can get 15% off an FTN subscription if you use promo code HBAM. It’s less than $8/mo and I’ve been a subscriber for a while. Be sure to get the FTN+ or greater sub to access StatsHub.

Seattle holds few DVOA advantages for the second week in a row. These are cumulative ranks, though, and do not reflect the play of the defense from the last two games. That said, the offense has struggled and may be more highly ranked than they are currently playing.

Two important items are the Seahawks improved rank against WR1 (5th overall) and continued effectiveness in defending RBs as pass catchers. Both will be important in this one. The tight end defense is one to watch as Trey McBride represents the best test of this new middle of the defense so far.

Seahawks Offense vs Cardinals Defense

Cardinals key advantages on defense

Arizona suffocated their last two opponents. They allowed 241 and 207 yards, and a combined 15 points. The important asterisk is they played a Bears team that fired their offensive coordinator and a Jets team that has fired their head coach and now their GM. Still, that level of dominance is impressive no matter the opponent.

Their run defense has become increasingly stingy. After allowing 130+ yards rushing in 5 of their first 6 games, they have allowed 79 or less in 3 of their last 4. Seattle has been atrocious on the ground all year. There is little reason to expect that to change in this game.

Would you believe LJ Collier leads the Cardinals in pressures this year with 21? By comparison, the Seahawks have five players with 27+ pressures. Arizona will bring pressure from everywhere. Thirteen (!) players recorded a pressure in their game against Chicago. They piled up 36 pressures overall. Blitz pickup will be tested.

Robinson is an unknown and Browning will be playing just his second game for the Cardinals. There is some advantage in the lack of tape on them playing for Arizona together.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

Seattle coaches could not have known what they would have in Lucas and Oluwatimi before last week. Lucas was fantastic against Nick Bosa. He will not be facing anyone of that level, or even an injured Bosa level in this game. Even with their 36 pressures against the Bears, Arizona still ranks 30th in pressure rate, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

The last time Seattle faced a team ranked that low in pressure rate was when they faced the 32nd-ranked Falcons. Other Seahawks opponents who rank low in that statistic are the Patriots (24th) and Lions (21st). Seattle threw for 312 yards versus New England, 383 yards versus the Lions, and Geno Smith has his highest passer rating of the season (110.3) against the Falcons.

The Cardinals only decent corner is Garret Williams, who plays in the slot. Starling Thomas V, Melton, and Murphy-Bunting have struggled. D.K. Metcalf should have a solid advantage against any corner across from him. Watch out for Tyler Lockett in this one. Teams are going to have to pay more attention to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, which should lead to some easy pickings for Lockett.

The linebackers are weak in coverage as well, and that could lead to some success for the tight ends or the backs as receivers.

Cardinals Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Cardinals key advantages on offense

This has been one of the best offensive lines in the NFL so far. They are getting solid play across the group, especially in run blocking. The combination of solid blocking and Connor out of the backfield has been a potent recipe. Connor is a little like Lions running back David Montgomery, who terrorized the Seahawks in Week 4. Seattle did a good job wrapping up against the Rams and 49ers. They will need to do it again in this game.

Murray’s legs are always a concern. Seattle gave up some running lanes for Purdy in both games against the 49ers. They will have to make containing Murray a higher priority, which will likely limit their pass rush. Macdonald will not want his guys getting too far upfield or doing as many twists that lead to gaps in the line.

McBride is an excellent tight end. Jones and Knight have not been challenged by a player like this since either have been playing for Seattle.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

The Seattle secondary posted their lowest average separation per route of the season (2.7 yards) against the 49ers. They have a chance to force more tight window throws and frustrate Murray and his young receivers.

Macdonald is gaining confidence in his crew, and is expanding his play calling as they demonstrate a readiness to build off the basics. It all starts with the run defense that has been elite for two games. This Cardinals rush offense will present more variation than what Seattle has faced during that stretch.

They have the personnel to overpower almost any opponent, and now are playing with the requisite discipline. This is a game where Macdonald could represent a strategic advantage now that he has a group rowing in the same direction.

Special Teams

Arizona has an excellent special teams unit, except when it comes to kickoff coverage. That will probably not matter with both Seahawks returners sidelined.

Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!