Many Seahawks fans are unhappy with their 9-7 team that missed the playoffs for a second straight year. Stories are already being published lambasting the team for blowing winnable games and being blown out by good teams. The most common refrain is that this team chose to move on from Pete Carroll because they “underachieved” last season, and it is looking like Mike Macdonald will either have the same win total or win one more. That way of assessing team progress is flawed, and seems more fueled by emotion or agenda than objective evaluation.
Macdonald flaws and question marks
Macdonald is not perfect, nor has his first season merited a perfect grade. Here are a few the areas that leave room for improvement.
EQ
A key aspect of leading any organization is emotional intelligence. Understanding what motivates people to be their best or even identifying organic motivation in people is a crucial skill. This was an area where Carroll was one of the best in the NFL. His players loved to play for him. He made work not feel like work, and helped coax the best versions of players out of themselves. This showed up in mostly intangible ways, like the consistently high effort players showed each week.
This is an area where Macdonald either has a blind spot or some growing yet to do. There were a number of games where the team seemed to start slow. The Giants game felt like they sleepwalked through three quarters and overlooked a bad team that ultimately cost them a playoff spot. Some players, like Devon Witherspoon, seem to love Macdonald. Some, have talked about him being robotic or corny, or groused about the multitude of meetings that felt unproductive.
He has admitted to being an anxious person who turns that energy into endless preparation and “chasing edges.” He has shown a willingness to hold players accountable for performance on the field, which can also create an air of anxiety in the locker room. Carroll lost touch with his “always compete” mantra, enabling underperforming players endless amounts of rope that held back his teams. Macdonald has to find the right balance of accountability and camaraderie that comes from a shared vision only the head coach can create.
He would be wise to spend some of that anxious energy this offseason chasing edges for ways to create more fun for his players that may be uncomfortable or different for him. Not everyone is inspired by military visits or talks. This was never a strength of mine as a leader, so I found people in my organization who would take this on. Leslie Frazier is a great collaborator on the coaching side, but it might be more a guy like Neiko Thorpe who could infuse some fun.
The best news here is that this has to come from an authentic place, and Macdonald is an authentic and caring person. He already knows that protecting his players is paramount and he wants to create a winning culture. He may just have a little further to go on this front than he does in designing his next sim-pressure.
Unforced errors
The Seahawks rank 30th in penalty yards and 29th in penalties per play after 17 weeks. They had 6 games with 70+ penalty yards. That included games against the Lions, the Bills, the Rams, the Packers, and the Vikings. In all, they were 1-5 when have 70+ yards in penalties, and if you want to throw in the 69 yard penalty game against the 49ers, they were 1-6.
Some penalties come from being overmatched by a better team. These show up in holding penalties or pass interference penalties, and they definitely had their share of those in these games. But the more concerning and damning penalties were the unforced errors like pre-snap penalties.
Seattle was 7th in the NFL in pre-snap penalties. They were also 1st in the NFL in penalties at home with a whopping 76, compared to just 41 on the road. Most of the pre-snap penalties were on the offensive line where the team was 2nd in the NFL in false starts (26). Key defensive penalties like Tre Brown lining up offsides against the Vikings on 3rd down stand out as well. This is not about another team being more talented. This is about attention to detail by coaches and players.
The good news is penalties on defensive players dropped year-over-year. The offensive line was the biggest culprit with 39 penalties. Yet another reason to invest in that position group.
Mismatched offensive identity
What Macdonald has stated as a desired identity for his team did not show up on the offensive side of the team. They talk about playing a style of football nobody else wants to play. Defenses were very happy to rush the passer against this offensive line 40+ times a game. It was not physical. It was not repeatable. It did not control the football. Reports from Brady Henderson are that Macdonald had to be convinced that Ryan Grubb would run the football enough given his penchant for passing at University of Washington.
Even if it is understandable that a first year, first time, head coach might be too accommodating when hiring his first OC, Macdonald is ultimately responsible for making the call on who to hire. That seems like a miss to this point. The offense took a step backward in most areas, but the most concerning aspect was the inability to get alignment within his ranks earlier and more effectively once it became clear there was a problem.
Macdonald needs to nail his offensive counterpart this offseason. The assumption is that will be a new OC. Whether it is sticking with Grubb or getting someone else, Macdonald has to be clear enough about what his own offensive philosophy is to find someone he can count on to bring it to life. He will have more time and more candidates to choose from this go around. Keep in mind Carroll let his OC go after year one. Kevin O’Connell, Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay and others took a few shots before they found their partner on the other side of the ball.
Too many non-competitive games
This season would feel different if Seattle had the same record but looked like they belonged on the same field as the Bills, the Packers, and the 49ers (first game). Some might throw the Lions on that list, but that game felt competitive even if the defense was non-existent. Seattle was one of only two teams to put up 500+ yards on the Lions this year, and that doesn’t even include the 100+ penalty yards they induced through pass interference and holding calls.
The Bills game was embarrassing. The 49ers got out to a huge lead before a kickoff return for TD helped that look more competitive late. Both of those games came before the team had made all the personnel changes on defense and the scheme adjustments. The Packers game ended a win streak and turned what had become a growing strength on defense into what appeared to be a mirage. They did steady themselves, but that was never a contest.
Great coaches have a way of being competitive in every game. There was too much inconsistency in Macdonald’s first year, and some of that falls on his shoulders for not entering games with some sort of game plan advantage that has opponents on their heels instead of vice versa. There was no excuse for how the Packers started on offense in that game.
Macdonald strengths and misnomers
The negative spin on Macdonald that has popped up after they officially were eliminated from the playoffs is missing some important context. Let’s address that.
“Pete won 9 games last year, so Macdonald is no better.”
If someone told you that beating the Panthers was as impressive as beating the Chiefs, you would rightly tell them they were crazy. Every win is not equal. Every opponent is not equal. Every season is not equal.
The Seahawks won 9 games last year. That included six game-winning drives. That included a final game against Arizona where their normally reliable kicker missed not one, but two, field goals that should have won the game but mysteriously missed to help Arizona get a higher draft pick and lower Seattle’s. That made for a 2-4 divisional record, which really should have been 1-5.
Columnists and fans dismiss Macdonald’s early wins against Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, and Skylar Thompson as if Carroll did not tally wins against Josh Dobbs, Andy Dalton, Sam Howell, Ryan Tannehill, and PJ Walker. They like to point out how Macdonald lost to Daniel Jones at home while ignoring Carroll losing to Mason Rudolph at home with the playoffs on the line.
Macdonald drew the NFC North in his first year. Mike Sando wrote convincingly about how it might be the best division in the history of the NFL. It is not hard to see 1-2 more wins if they had played, say, the NFC South this year.
There are a variety of strength of schedule ranking systems out there. All of them seem to agree Macdonald had a tougher schedule than the 2023 Seahawks. That doesn’t even factor in the net rest differential that was much worse in 2024 (-13, 4th-toughest) than 2023 (-4, 10th-toughest).
Even with all that working against Macdonald, he still has a positive point differential (+2) compared to Carroll’s very negative (-38) result last season.
None of this is to say people should be celebrating 9 or even 10 wins. It is intended to illustrate why simply pointing at win totals is a myopic way to assess team progress from one season to the next. The 2010 Seahawks won 7 games, a division title, and a playoff game, but had a -97 point differential in Carroll’s first season. They had the same record the next season, missed the playoffs, but had a positive point differential and a Top 10 defense. Guess which team was closer to being competitive?
“Who cares if the defense got better? They are just finding different ways to be mediocre.”
It is true that the offense took a step back while the defense took a step forward. Context matters here as well. Seattle went from one of the four worst defenses in the NFL by DVOA to a borderline Top 10 unit. They went from 30th in yards allowed to 13th. The went from 30th in EPA/play to 9th. They have improved in every category, mostly by very large margins.
They did all that while facing the 2nd-hardest schedule for a defense in the NFL, per DVOA. They also did it while having the 27th ranked offense in giveaways, and an offense that often started slow, leading to very few positive game scripts. Macdonald took one of the worst defenses in the NFL, that had been sliding without hope of improvement for many years, and turned it into one of the best defenses in football in one season.
It is not his first turnaround. He did it at University of Michigan and with the Ravens. At some point, you have to credit the coach.
A primary reason you hire a head coach is to get someone who excels on one side of the ball enough that you will have a stable schematic advantage for years to come. All signs are pointing to Seattle having found one of those guys in Macdonald.
It is still not good enough, but there is reason to expect it will be even better next year with a full season under their belts, not much turnover expected on the personnel or coaching side, continued growth from young talent, and what will almost certainly be a simpler schedule.
The offensive slide is a concern, but given this same personnel (mostly) was a Top 12 DVOA offense under Shane Waldron a year ago, it does not take a major leap of faith to think they can improve considerably in an offseason where it is clear where the investment will go. Seattle no longer needs to fix everything on this team. The defense is in good shape one year after the majority of investment went into that side of the ball. There is every reason to think Seattle will focus on offense this time around.
Also, the slide on offense was not nearly as pronounced as the climb on defense, and the offense faced a tougher strength of schedule than the previous year.
Getting the best from players
Macdonald’s first season in Seattle brought out the best in a number of players. Leonard Williams had arguably the best season of his career. Coby Bryant became a quality starter at safety. Julian Love had his best season. Derick Hall erupted for 8.0 sacks after having none as a rookie. Jarran Reed had his best overall season.
It is not a coincidence when that many players take major leaps when all of them were on the same team a season ago. They are a mix of veterans and young players, defensive line and secondary. Tyrice Knight was a great find at linebacker, and he was very much a Macdonald pick.
Being able to coax great performances out of different players at different positions is the core part of coaching. The salary cap, age, and injury, will force any coach to have to adapt to different players and different strengths over time. Macdonald has a track record of doing exactly that. That he proved it again here is very good news.
NFC West progress
Carroll had been getting owned by Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay for a number of years. Macdonald had a very rough first NFC West game against the 49ers, but then proceeded to out-coach every rival in the division the rest of the way. Yes, they lost to the Rams, but Macdonald dominated McVay’s offense for four quarters. They had seven 3-and-outs, which had only happened one other time in McVay’s tenure as a head coach. Had this final game mattered, there is every reason to think Macdonald would have done it again.
His history has shown moments where offensive play callers get the best of him the first time they face off, but never again. That happened with Mike Macdaniel in Baltimore. It happened with Shanahan this season. It happened with McVay from last year to this year. Seattle may finish 4-2 in the division with one of those losses coming in a game against the Rams that had a crazy list of oddities just to allow the game to reach overtime. This feels more like a 5-1 season against the division, and that is a huge step forward from where Seattle has been the past few years.
Separating frustration from fact
This was a frustrating year as a Seahawks fan. Seattle was embarrassed at home, both in record and in how many visiting fans took over the stadium. Every big game Seattle played in front of a national audience was ugly. Their quarterback’s most memorable moments involved throws to opponents in the end zone. Their offensive line felt like more of the same. Every time it felt like they were building toward something, it all came tumbling down.
All those things can be true, and still not be as important as the progress made by Macdonald in his first year. This team could have had better luck and won 11 games, and yes, they could have had worse luck and won 7 or 8. A fanbase known for causing earthquakes should know that truly powerful change comes beneath the surface. Macdonald made some tectonic shifts in the fortunes of this franchise. Taking this offseason to address the areas of weakness could break this team free from mediocrity by as early as next year.