Fans will not see 3rd and 1 running plays that gain 2 yards on SportsCenter very often. Someone watching football for the first time sees those plays where a mass of humanity collides with very little movement, and wonder how this game has become so popular. There is little sex appeal in short yardage football, but teams that are able to reliably move the football short distances in these situations sustain drives and score more points. Seahawks fans know how pivotal these moments can be better than most. The 2005 squad led the NFL in converting 3rd and 4th down short yardage plays (60%). The 2014 team was 7th, but could not convert the most infamous short yardage situation in NFL history. This version of the Seahawks started strong, converting 75% of their short yardage attempts over the first five weeks before sliding all the way to dead last in the seven games since (35.7%). Explosive plays will always dominate fan and media attention, but the ability of this Seattle team to move the ball a few feet could well determine whether they are in the playoffs or watching at home.
When something small is big
Short yardage situations tend to be high leverage moments in a football game. None are bigger than when teams have 3rd or 4th and short (2 yards or fewer) at the goal line. Seattle has had six chances to score a touchdown in those moments this season. They have yet to convert a single one.
Three of those tries came in their game against the Jets when a touchdown would have given the team the lead. Two more came against Buffalo on the 1-yard line, including a 4th down play where Geno Smith was tripped by his center. Scoring there would have put Seattle up 10-7 in a game that became a blowout. The final came against the 49ers in Seattle when the team had no timeouts and a few seconds before the half, but could not connect on a fade pass. They settled for a field goal to go into halftime down 16-3 in a game where they were behind by six and five points later. Settling for a field goal earlier meant Seattle needed a touchdown to take the lead.
The only other teams in the NFL to have a 0% conversion rate in these short yardage goal-to-go situations are the Giants (2-10), the Raiders (2-10), and the Titans (3-9). Not exactly the company you want to keep.
Being near the goal line is not necessary for these to be pivotal plays. Overall, Seattle ranks 28th in the NFL in converting a 3rd or 4th down and 2 yards or fewer into a 1st down. Their 56.8% conversion rate is tied with the Browns, and only better than the Dolphins (48.9%), Jaguars (47.6%), and 49ers (45.5%).
Sampling some of the highest leverage short yardage moments for the Seahawks this season makes it even more clear how critical this aspect of the game is to their success or failure.
Highest Leverage Short Yardage Plays
- +3.64 EPA 4th and 1 at SEA 38-yard line at Jets (4th Quarter, 9:18 to go, trailing 19-21): Incomplete pass to DK Metcalf. Defensive pass interference called for a 1st down.
- -3.41 EPA 4th and 1 at the NYJ 1-yard line at Jets (3rd Quarter, 5:32 to go, trailing 16-21): Sacked for -15 yards
- -3.17 EPA 4th and 1 at the BUF 1-yard line vs Bills (2nd Quarter, 4:47 to go, trailing 3-7): Smith tripped for -6 yards
- +2.79 EPA 4th and 1 at the ATL 44-yard line at Falcons (3rd Quarter, 5:03 to go, leading 17-14): Zach Charbonnet run for 7 yards
- -2.74 EPA 4th and 1 at the SEA 35-yard line vs Giants (4th Quarter, 14:13 to go, trailing 13-20): Smith sacked for -8 yards
- -2.69 EPA 4th and 1 at the NWE 23-yard line at Patriots (3rd Quarter, 10:27 to go, leading 17-13): Charbonnet runs for -1 yards
- +2.58 EPA 4th and 1 at the SEA 50-yard line at 49ers (4th Quarter, 6:23 to go, trailing 13-17): Kenneth Walker runs for 4 yards
- -2.47 EPA 4th and 1 at the LAR 16-yard line vs Rams (Overtime, 7:25 to go, tied 20-20): Walker runs for 0 yards
- +2.46 EPA 4th and 1 at the LAR 39-yard line vs Rams (1st Quarter, 12:40 to go, tie 0-0): Walker runs for 2 yards
- +2.44 EPA 4th and 1 at the SEA 34-yard line at Lions (3rd Quarter, 12:48 to go, trailing 7-21): Smith sneak for 2 yards
- +2.42 EPA 4th and 1 at the NWE 36-yard line at Patriots (2nd Quarter, 8:04 to go, trailing 7-10): Smith sneak for 2 yards
Had each of these plays flipped, the Seahawks record might be different, or in the case of the Jets game, eliminated the need for high leverage short yardage plays later.
This is not a secret inside the Seattle locker room. Quarterback Geno Smith was asked about a particularly calamitous set of short yardage plays near the Jets goal line and did not mince words.
“Yeah, we’ve got to get better at that,” Smith said. “If I was to be critical of anything, I think that’s the main thing. We’ve got to be better in the short-yardage area and that’s all of us. It’s on all of us. Those are the situations where you can really punch it in and dominate a game. If you can dominate short yardage and you can get all those, you’re going to be a really good team.”
A review of every 3rd and 4th down play of 2 yards or fewer supported Smith’s assertion that the problems are across the board. There have been some questionable play calls from offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, some poor blocking from the offensive line and the tight ends, and some missed checks at the line by Smith. Here is a look at some of the highest leverage short yardage moments, including some that worked. You may choose to skip the play-by-play and see my conclusions further down.
-3.41 EPA 4th and 1 at the NYJ 1-yard line at Jets
This play is fresh in everyone’s minds, but was also the biggest negative EPA play of the bunch, so it gets first position here. Seattle had failed on a series of short yardage plays to get to this point. This was the final failure.
Assessing blame
It’s always dangerous for anyone outside the locker room to assign responsibility to why a play succeeded or failed. I will share my assessments on each of these plays, and you can evaluate for yourself.
This failure feels like it falls at the feet of Grubb, who hoped to catch the Jets off-guard with a pass play and clearly did not as every receiver was well covered.
-3.17 EPA 4th and 1 at the BUF 1-yard line vs Bills
Including this play may seem pointless since Smith was stepped on and tripped by Connor Williams, but I believe we saw enough to learn from it.
Assessing blame
Obviously the trip was officially why this play did not work. It did not, however, look like it was going to succeed either way. Mike Jerrell was badly beaten at right tackle. Even if the tight ends were moving into open space, Smith would have been under instant pressure before he could even turn to face them. Part of the issue here was Jerrell. Part was the play call.
+2.79 EPA 4th and 1 at the ATL 44-yard line at Falcons
This is the first successful play we will look at. The Falcons had crawled back into the game, trailing by only three, and the Seahawks went for it on 4th down. The success on that play eventually resulted in a game-sealing touchdown.
Assessing credit
This might be my favorite short yardage play design by Grubb of the whole season. He has utilized Charbonnet and Walker in the backfield quite a bit in these situations throughout the year. In this case, he has them both offset and creates some tension in the defense by running misdirection. The design of the play directly contributes to why it succeeded. There were also some great blocks by Pharaoh Brown and Jake Bobo.
-2.74 EPA 4th and 1 at the SEA 35-yard line vs Giants
This is another play where Seattle chooses to try and pass for the first down, and the opponent does not buy it, resulting in a sack.
Assessing blame
It would be easy to criticize Grubb for passing on this play, but the Giants were eating the Seahawks alive upfront with Dexter Lawrence all day. Brian Burns attacked the play in a way that Mike Macdonald acknowledged afterward was different than they expected, and may have even been a freelance decision by the edge rusher. The play never had a chance, so responsibility falls to the play caller.
-2.69 EPA 4th and 1 at the NWE 23-yard line at Patriots
This is a run play that results in a loss near the Patriots red zone.
Assessing blame
Noah Fant gets blown into the backfield. Charles Cross fails to get any push, contributing to a pileup in the backfield. There was nobody to block the backside pursuit. Primary problem here was the blocking. Fant is not a great blocker, and his failure basically kills the play. You could ask whether it was wise to ask him to block the Patriots best pass rusher, but you cannot control every variable in terms of where defenders line up. Maybe there was an option to check to a pass where Fant would have then had the advantage, but we cannot know.
+2.58 EPA 4th and 1 at the SEA 50-yard line at 49ers
This is another successful running play in the game at San Francisco.
Assessing credit
This play works despite Charbonnet completely blowing a block. Walker gets some credit for beating the unblocked linebacker to the edge. Cross and Oluwatimi do a nice job sealing the edge. Grubb gets the bulk of the credit for calling an outside run when the 49ers were clearly guessing inside. I tend to hate slow-developing or outside runs on short yardage, but this was an example of why it works.
+2.44 EPA 4th and 1 at the SEA 34-yard line at Lions
I wanted to include this as the last play as it was a good example of where a QB sneak works well.
Assessing credit
This was made easy by the alignment of the Lions. Any quarterback and offensive line could have gained sufficient yards for a first down via sneak. Some credit to Grubb for calling a sneak or giving Smith freedom to run that play if they get the look they want.
Call outs
I watched every single 3rd and 4th down of 2 yards or fewer on the season. A few things stood out.
- Nearly every QB sneak worked (3 of 4)
- The only one that did not work was when there was a questionable spot in San Francisco
- Passing in these situations worked early in the season (5 of the first 6 passes converted), but has failed since (5 of the last 6 passes have failed)
- The only pass play to convert since Week 5 was when Metcalf drew the DPI against the Jets, so none of them have worked on their own
- The pass plays largely have had every player covered and do not seem to be fooling the defense which begs the question about whether Seattle is tipping their tendencies
- Grubb has heavily utilized two-back sets with Charbonnet and Walker
- Outside of sneaks, no play was repeated
- Each appeared to be a unique call
- Almost everyone took turns blowing blocks
- Jerrell had a few bad reps, Laumea had a few bad reps
- The tight ends have been part of the problem with Brown missing a few blocks, Barner and Brady Russell missing as well
- Only two plays appeared to include some aspect of misdirection
The biggest concern here is the lack of repeatability. Think about the best teams at converting short yardage plays. They tend to have a single play opponents cannot stop even if they know it is coming. The Tush push in Philly. The Tom Brady sneaks. The Shaun Alexander run to the left side. Grubb was asked whether he thinks it is more important to find a repeatable short yardage play or have a variety of ways to attack defenses.
“I think a lot of that depends on personnel,” Grubb said. “We’re still seeking that one play, obviously, but I do think that it’s kind of forced us to evaluate the personnel situations and all those type of scenarios. I think that once you find your groove, you can build things off of that and continue to complement those things.”
The implication is Grubb has not found a play that the Seahawks personnel can run well enough against enough defenses that he feels comfortable calling it when the defense knows what is coming. This gets back to the chicken and egg scenario a bit.
It would be hard for the team to get great at any one short yardage play if they continue experimenting and not committing to repetition. The Lions are a good short yardage team playing behind a fantastic offensive line with a respected play caller, and they ascribe to the “keep ’em guessing” approach to short yardage.
There is not one path to being good in these situations, but having a good offensive line certainly helps. Seattle can take some encouragement from winning their game against the Jets with an 8-yard touchdown run on 3rd and 1 where Laumea and Oluwatimi combined on a nice block to help spring Charbonnet. Grubb also utilized some misdirection with motion from Walker to hold some of the second-level defenders.
It feels like it would make sense for Smith to be given some authority to check to a sneak if they get the look they want or even just lean into that play more. Grubb seemed reluctant to follow that path when asked this week.
“Without giving anything away,” Grubb said. “Some people are better at it than others.”
That might be in reference to Smith or his linemen, or even the opponents they face. What is clear is he does not see it as an option they can rely on the way some teams do in these situations.
The path to turning around the Seahawks fortunes in short yardage likely involves continuity on the offensive line, better performance on the ground no matter the down or distance, and Grubb narrowing his play list to help the team excel at something. The addition of Laumea created some new hope on that front.
“I thought last week was probably our best week as far as working the football inside the B gaps and getting physical on some of those double teams,” Grubb said. “There were certainly some times in the Jets game where I felt like we were dominating the line of scrimmage and moving those double teams. I thought last week was one of our biggest steps in the run game, and I thought we did a great job.”
Building on that to gain more confidence in short yardage will result more defenders committed to the run game, more space for receivers to get open, and more points. It could all come together quickly as it did with the once-disastrous run defense or be more incremental. The only certainty is they will never be a great team while they are the worst at converting short yardage.