It is rare to face the same twice in three weeks in the NFL. Having that team be your chief competition for the division title is even more unique. Seattle will try for a home-and-away sweep of the Arizona Cardinals in a game that very well could decide the NFC West champ.

A Seahawks win would put Seattle up two games over the Cardinals with the tiebreaker, which means they would really have a three game lead. Seattle would need to go just 2-2 the rest of the way to clinch the division with a win against Arizona.

All of that can be true and still not matter much. Neither of these teams are setup to make much noise even if they get into the playoffs. The bigger story is jockeying for position as the team with the best case to rule the division in the coming years. Both feature young head coaches and rosters stocked with starters drafted in the past three years.

Most analysts would have told you that these teams were better equipped to be dangerous on offense coming into the season even if their head coaches were defensive minded. Kyler Murray, Geno Smith, Marvin Harrison Jr., D.K. Metcalf, James Conner, Kenneth Walker III, Paris Johnson Jr, and Charles Cross made for a lot of talent on that side of the ball. Each offense started out pretty well, and both have fallen off a bit recently.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals defense was considered one of the least talented units in the division and the league headed into the year. They lived up to that billing early on, but have transformed into one of the best defenses in football the last few weeks. What was a poor pass rushing team as recently as three weeks ago, led the NFL in pressure rate against the Vikings in Week 13.

Seattle has surged as well on that side of the ball, but you don’t have to tell Cardinals players, coaches, or fans about that. The Seahawks dominated Arizona in the first matchup in a way no other team has done this season. Cardinals announcers were left muttering by halftime trying to understand how Seattle was dominating the Arizona offensive line so thoroughly on the way to just 6 points and 49 rushing yards.

You could make the case that defenses for these two squads will decide this rematch. They are both playing at an elite level. The Seahawks offense would seem to be the ugly duckling of the matchup, giving the Arizona defense a seemingly easier task.

Watch out for the Seahawks run game in this one. They do not have the numbers to show for it, but there are signs on tape of an offensive line that is getting closer to creating running lanes. Arizona played two-high coverage (two safeties deep) on 53% of their snaps against the Seattle in the first game. The Seahawks were not able to consistently punish the Cardinals on the ground for pulling guys out of the box. Seattle averaged just 2.5 yards per carry against light boxes in that game.

It is asking too much for the Seahawks defense to hold Arizona to microscopic numbers in another game, this time at home in what will feel like a must-win situation. Seattle has not allowed an offense to score more than 17 points in regulation for the last four games. They have scored a touchdown on defense in each of the last two games.

Smith and the offense will have to build on the final drive they had to seal the first win. I like their chances to do that and come out on top.

The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories. 

Fresh Faces

There are a few notable changes for each team even though only one week has passed since their last game.

Arizona welcomed their second 1st-round pick to the field against the Vikings when Darius Robinson finally made his debut. He played 22 snaps and was not much of a factor. Jalen Thompson missed the first game and is one of the better safeties in the league. He will be back for this one.

Noah Fant was unavailable for the first game, and will be in the lineup for this one. Anthony Bradford started the first game before getting hurt. Christian Haynes played all but a few snaps. Sataoa Laumea should get his second straight start and represents a potential upgrade in the run game. A wild card is whether Uchenna Nwosu will make it back this week or the team will wait one more week. It is unclear where his snaps would come, but he is a leader on the defense and their most well-rounded edge defender.

DVOA

New this season, Tale of the Tape will feature DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective. You can get 15% off an FTN subscription if you use promo code HBAM. It’s less than $8/mo and I’ve been a subscriber for a while. Be sure to get the FTN+ or greater sub to access StatsHub.

Arizona held pretty large DVOA advantages in the first game, and that continues heading into this one. DVOA adjusts for opponent and the game against the Vikings was a positive for Arizona despite the loss. They outplayed Minnesota on both sides of the ball much of the game, and the Vikings have one of the best records in the league.

Seattle saw their 7th-ranked special teams unit plummet to 21st after one of the worst special teams performances you will ever see from an NFL team. Still, that likely will not be reflective of the group that goes out there this week, especially with changes in the return team.

Seahawks Offense vs Cardinals Defense

Cardinals key advantages on defense

Roy Lopez is a name most fans do not know. He personifies this Cardinals defense. He is tough and rarely gets moved off the ball. He is a key cog in their run defense.

Garrett Williams remains their best corner and had a pick in the first game. Sean Murphy-Bunting had a terrific came against the Vikings, forcing two fumbles.

Mack Wilson has been turned into a weapon as a blitzer. He was sent repeatedly and effectively against the Vikings. Arizona would sometimes send two extra players to overwhelm the Vikings protections. They had an 80% pressure rate on blitzes in that game.

Arizona only blitzed 18.9% of the time against the Seahawks the first game. They had 5 sacks but only a 29.7% pressure rate. It will be interesting to see how they choose to attack this Seahawks offense this time around.

Budda Baker and Thompson are terrific safeties.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a problem for every team lately, and Arizona was no different. The second year receiver had 6 catches in 7 targets for 77 yards and a TD in the first game. Metcalf had 4 catches for 59 yards.

While Walker only had 41 yards on the ground, he had 52 yards as a receiver. If Arizona continues to play zone as they have all season and play two-deep, there should be chances for underneath throws to the backs.

Arizona started getting wise to the Seahawks tunnel screens in the first game and almost picked off a couple. Ryan Grubb would be wise to insert some misdirection screens that fake the throw one way and deliver it another.

Cardinals Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Cardinals key advantages on offense

Murray was terrific for a lot of the game against the Vikings, taking what the defense offered and scrambling for chunk plays. He also had multiple crippling mistakes that cost his team the game, including two interceptions and a grounding penalty in the red zone late.

He and James Connor remain the most important players on this offense. Arizona is 2nd in the NFL in explosive rushing plays because of those two. Neither could get untracked in the initial matchup versus Seattle. It will be almost impossible to replicate that level of dominance.

Teams have started to figure out that they cannot run up the middle against the Seahawks defense and are trying to attack the edges. That could lead to more use of rookie running back Trey Benson in this one.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

Leonard Williams exists. That has become one of the biggest advantages in the NFL. He wrecked the Cardinals and then the Jets. They will have to commit more blocking to him, which should create mismatches for other players on the line to exploit.

This would be an ideal game for Byron Murphy II to bust out. Jarran Reed is another one to watch.

Cardinals receivers struggled to get open against the Seattle corners last time. Michael Wilson made a gorgeous catch over his shoulder, and made a couple more like that against the Vikings. New York had some success targeting Josh Jobe, and Arizona will likely try to follow suit.

Julian Love adjusted in that game and provided more help for Jobe. He has played excellent safety all season and Coby Bryant would love to follow up his pick-six against Arizona with another big play.

Special Teams

Who knows what we will witness after that debacle on Sunday. The most hopeful perspective would be that Seattle will get a good returner or two and solidify the return game for the first time this season.

Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!