The Seahawks defense has been nearly unrecognizable since Week 9 after a series of personnel changes and some schematic tweaks transformed it into one of the best defenses in football. Going from terrible to terrific that fast can leave many opponents and national media out of touch with what is going on in the PNW. League rankings take time to reflect the quality change. Casual evaluation of this game between the Seahawks and the Green Bay Packers would likely lead to the conclusion that the Packers are a class above. This is not the time for casual.

Green Bay comes to town to rekindle one of the better rivalries in the NFL over the past two decades. The games in Seattle, especially, have been classics. Everyone remembers Golden Tate catching the controversial touchdown to win as time expired. The NFC Championship was one of the best games in league history. Even the last matchup in 2018 was closely contested as Russell Wilson hid Ed Dickson for the game-winning touchdown late in a 27-24 victory.

In all, the Packers have lost their last four games when visiting Seattle, dating back to 2012. Jordan Love has never played at Lumen Field. Matt LaFleur has never coached in Seattle. He brings with him one of the best offenses in the NFL. What they will find is one of the best defenses. Seeing how these teams have played over the last five weeks gives a good overview of what to expect.

Green Bay has been on a tear, scoring at least 30 points in three straight games. They have rushed for 99+ yards six straight and eight of nine. Their only two losses in their last nine games are both to the Detroit Lions. The only other teams to beat them are the Eagles and the Vikings.

Their wins, however, are not particularly impressive. Only the Rams and Texans currently have winning records. Wins over the Colts, Jags, Bears, and Dolphins tell us little, and beating a 49er team that was at its most injured says even less. Their most convincing win might be their 34-13 romp over the Cardinals. Seattle just swept Arizona.

This Seahawks defense has been better than the Packers offense recently. That sets up a strength-versus-strength matchup that should be highly entertaining. Love and LaFleur have never faced Mike Macdonald (and vice versa). LaFleur has had a terrific season. Love was lost early to injury, and LaFleur found a way to win with Malik Willis by transforming their team into a heavy run offense.

He comes from the Mike Shanahan tree back with Washington, and also coached under Sean McVay with the Rams. His play callings seems more independent than others from those trees. His bias toward the run more closely mimics Shanahan. They are excellent on early downs, while being the most run-heavy early down team in the NFL.

Meanwhile, Macdonald’s defense has been the 2nd-best early down EPA/play defense in the NFL since Week 9 and the #1 run defense on early downs by rush EPA/play. Again, steel will meet steel.

Where we may see some separation between these two teams is when the weaker two units take the field. Green Bay has a some decent defensive numbers but they have been mediocre lately and are fighting some significant injuries a secondary that has surrendered a lot of yards through the air.

They are predominantly a zone coverage team who struggle to get pressure on the passer. They rank 29th in the NFL in pressure rate. Other teams who have had that defensive profile and faced Seattle include, Arizona (25th in pressure rate), New England (28th), and Atlanta (30th). The Patriots played more man coverage than Green Bay does, but it generally does not go well for opponents when they cannot pressure Geno Smith. Seattle is coming off their best pass protection game of the season.

Oh, and that Packers secondary ranks dead last in the NFL in dropback success rate when you exclude turnovers (53.3%). The implication there is that this defense has feasted on interceptions to be viable in pass defense. When they are not picking off a pass, they are among the worst pass defense in football. Weakness…meet strength.

The injury situation in the Packers secondary combined with their poor pass rush, and the Seahawks improving line play in front of a version of Smith that seems to be getting more comfortable with taking what zone defenses give him, would seem to give Seattle a chance to move the ball.

Green Bay has respect around the league after their playoff performance last season and their record this season. Seattle does not, even though they have just one fewer win. This will be the game where that changes.

The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories. 

Fresh Faces

The Packers injury situation is complicated. Safety Evan Williams is in concussion protocol. Javon Bullard, another safety, seems unlikely to play this week after leaving the game against the Lions in a walking boot and crutches. Outstanding rookie linebacker Edgerrin Cooper has missed numerous weeks with a hamstring injury. Their best cornerback, Jaire Alexander, has been out a while with a knee injury.

That has forced a lot of shuffling in the secondary. Keisean Nixon has moved back to nickel corner with Bullard out. Carrington Valentine and Eric Stokes took snaps at outside corner. Zayne Anderson, a special teamer, played 53 of 61 career defensive snaps at safety once they lost Williams and Bullard against Detroit.

Receiver Romeo Doubs was still in the concussion protocol as of Monday, and is one to watch.

For Seattle, the primary injury focus will be on Kenneth Walker III, who may have a more serious injury than initially expected, as the team is waiting on test results. Zach Charbonnet and Kenny McIntosh filled in ably against Arizona. Uchenna Nwosu should get some additional snaps as he continues to work back. Stone Forsythe may be added back to the active roster as a backup tackle this week. Michael Dickson punted through a sore back last game, and remains one to watch.

DVOA

New this season, Tale of the Tape will feature DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective. You can get 15% off an FTN subscription if you use promo code HBAM. It’s less than $8/mo and I’ve been a subscriber for a while. Be sure to get the FTN+ or greater sub to access StatsHub.

DVOA would tell you this is a pretty one-sided game. Of course, the Seahawks are the 2nd-ranked DVOA defense since Week 10, behind only the Eagles. They are 3rd in pass defense DVOA and 4th in rush defense DVOA. As shown earlier, that unit has no reason to fear any matchup right now. The Packers, though, are their biggest test.

The Packers trouble defending the tight end could mean Noah Fant plays a bigger role. They give up pass yardage to running backs as well, and that could be even more pronounced if their safeties are out.

Seahawks Offense vs Packers Defense

Packers key advantages on defense

Green Bay has had a knack for creating turnovers. They are 3rd in the NFL in that category. Safety Xavier McKinney has been a terrific addition in free agency and started the season with an interception in five straight games. He helped the Packers have 2+ takeaways in each of their first six games. They have done that just twice in the last seven.

Cooper, if back, would be a big boost to their run defense and their pass rush. Alexander would help their coverage a lot.

Rashan Gary is their best pass rusher, but five Seahawks have more pressures on the year. Kenny Clark is arguably their best front seven player and helps anchor a stout run defense.

Nixon has been playing his best ball lately at corner, and it will be interesting to see if he remains inside due to the Bullard injury.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

Smith has been one of the best quarterbacks in football when not pressured. He actually is also one of the best when under pressure. The problem has been that no quarterback is the best version of themselves when pressured, and too high a percentage of Smith’s dropbacks have been under pressure this year. That has changed of late.

Smith led the NFL in dropbacks under pressure through Week 9. He is tied for 18th since Week 10. That difference cannot be overstated.

His connection with Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues to grow. The combination of zone defenses and a less-than-healthy D.K. Metcalf have made Smith-Njigba a centerpiece, and he has flourished.

Charbonnet has been a good receiver out of the backfield, as is McIntosh. There should be opportunity for Smith to take advantage of his checkdowns against a zone defense, especially with a defense that struggles to pressure the QB. The linebackers can be exploited in coverage.

Packers Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Packers key advantages on offense

Love actually has a higher interception rate (3.4%) than Smith (2.6%) on the season. The difference is that Love has more than doubled Smith’s TD rate (6.4% vs 3.0%). Love is a playmaker and has a bevy of weaponry to choose from. His receiver room goes five deep and can be a handful after the catch.

Josh Jacobs rumbled over the Seahawks for almost 300 yard of total offense the last time he came to Lumen Field with the Raiders. He has slowed down a bit, but is tied for the league lead in forced missed tackles (58).

The Packers offensive line is mostly excellent. Their tackle play tends to be very good. They rank 10th in pressure rate allowed on the year, and the 5th-best time to pressure (2.86 seconds).

Their early down excellence helps open up a healthy play action game (10th-highest PA rate).

Seahawks key advantages on defense

Green Bay likes to run up the middle at one of the highest rates in the NFL (55.8%). That has been an area Seattle has excelled at stopping of late. The teams that have managed to limit the Packers 1st down success have had the best chance to beat them.

Center Josh Myers and right guard Sean Rhyan can be vulnerable in pass protection. The Seahawks interior line play is among the best in the NFL. Love has only been sacked 2+ times in three games this season. Still, he had thrown an interception in his first eight starts this season before going three straight without a pick. Turnovers have started becoming more common for the Seahawks as their defense forces teams into more challenging downs, distances, and scores.

Macdonald has been excellent against Shanahan coordinators over the years. The chess match in this one will be fascinating.

Special Teams

Green Bay has struggled in both placekicking and punting. They only have one field goal over 50 yards all season. That could play a role in this one.

Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!