There are moments in life where you do everything right and still do not get the outcome you hoped for. There are even more moments where you make one mistake, and that is enough to cost you the result you were after. You may get lucky now and then when a mistake or two can be overcome. What happened on Sunday does not happen. Literally, it has never happened. Here is an incomplete accounting of the oddities that occurred:
- Two fumbled kickoffs, plus a third muffed kickoff
- Allowed a 99-yard kickoff return for a touchdown
- Blocked an extra point and had an extra point blocked
- Returned an interception 92 yards for a touchdown
- Done by a defensive linemen*
- Done by a player who also had 2 sacks*
- Done by a player who also had 1 of the blocked extra points*
- Had a game that featured both a 90+ yard kickoff return for TD and 90+ yard interception return for TD*
- Lost a punter to injury that caused the team to go for a 4th and 6 in their own territory that they would not have tried if he was available, on a drive that resulted in the game-winning touchdown
- Beat Aaron Rodgers on the road*
- Held Aaron Rodgers to his lowest passer rating against Seattle*
- Passed the ball 5 times inside the 4-yard line, including three times inside the 1-yard line
- Wound up giving the ball back on the 16-yard line
- Had your primary receiver go down with a knee injury that appeared serious enough to have teammates kneeling in prayer and a cart driven beside the injury tent, only to see that player back in the game after only missing two plays
- Had a player with 2+ sacks in back-to-back game
- Saw your opponent lose their top 3 cornerbacks and play without either starting offensive tackle
- Benefited from 5 penalties on 3rd or 4th down on the game-winning drive
- Gave up 14 points on defense in the 1st quarter, and 0 points on defense the rest of the game
- Had back-to-back games with an interception returned for a TD
*Never happed before
Games like this defy logic and probability. Vegas certainly struggled to prognosticate ahead of kickoff. The line opened in favor of the Jets, swung to as much as a 2.5 point favorite for the Seahawks before swinging back to 1.5 points in favor of the home team before kickoff.
The game was not all unpredictable. A Seahawks offense that has been heavily reliant on the passing game involving their wide receivers had a terrible time trying to move the ball against a Jets team that was 2nd in the NFL in passing yards allowed coming into the game. Cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed made life difficult while they were in the game.
The Jets offense came out refreshed after the bye week and found some early success against a Seahawks defense that had been dominant the week prior. Seattle came out a little flat and a lot sloppy against a 3-8 opponent in a 10AM start during a holiday-shortened week after three straight intense games against division opponents.
It was hard to imagine the Seahawks offense scoring 20 points in this game. Turns out, they didn’t. Nineteen points from the offense was enough with the defense chipping in seven.
Oddities have become the expectation in this transitional season under Mike Macdonald. Seattle has had games with multiple safeties on offense, multiple red zone turnovers, multiple bad snaps, and blocked game-tying field goals. One starting linebacker was traded, the other was waived despite being the team’s leading tackler. They have played four players at right tackle. They have played two 6th round rookies on the offensive line, and three rookies overall. Their quarterback is near the league lead in interceptions despite having one of the lowest turnover-worthy play rates. Their defense has gone from best in the NFL to worst in the NFL to among the best again. The offense has gone from one of the most productive to the least productive.
Special teams had their, “hold my beer,” game against the Jets. The kickoff returners had a game so bad they might not play the rest of the year. Laviska Shenault Jr. had a costly fumble against the 49ers earlier in the season. He muffed one kickoff, and then another. The second was a pratfall that wound up turning into a lost fumble. Dee Williams fumbled a punt in his first game against the Broncos, and has been anything but secure with the ball all season long. He lost a fumble that turned into the Jets second touchdown.
Every Seahawks fan prays every time the ball is kicked to this team, regardless of spiritual preference. There should be no more patience or tolerance. Players have lost jobs on this team for less.
Kick coverage came into the game as the best in the NFL. No longer. Not only did Seattle give up the touchdown, but every return felt on the verge of going the distance. Jason Myers appeared unable to kick the ball deep enough into the end zone to force a touchback after it became clear the Seahawks could not cover.
Jay Harbaugh was understandably taking a lot of heat online from Seahawks fans during and after this game. The reality is the Seattle special teams was among the best in the NFL entering this game. They ranked 7th in DVOA, and had been climbing steadily for weeks. This game was catastrophic and will shine the Klieg light on Harbaugh the rest of the way. Special teams are a bit like the offensive line in that fans generally only notice them when things are going wrong. The return game has had far too many things go wrong this season, and this game should be the elephant that breaks the camel’s back.
Speaking of the offensive line, rookie Sataoa Laumea got his first start. The results were mixed. He had a costly penalty and some poor timing on run plays early according to Macdonald. My overall impression, though, was positive. He seemed to have some promising reps, especially in the run game. He is a more athletic mover than the other players they have had in that spot, and appears to have some pop to accompany the movement.
Seattle did not have an impressive day statistically on the ground, but there were a handful of runs that were a tackle away from going the distance. That, after having one nearly break last week against the Cardinals. Progress in building a run offense is often measured in small increments. This group feels closer than ever putting it together, and Laumea could be a key cog. I don’t expect he will grade well in this one, but I liked what I saw.
Run defense had been the biggest weakness of this team a few weeks ago. Seattle has turned that around, but the Jets are the first team to have made a clear adjustment to how the Seahawks have been defending running plays of late.
Macdonald had been playing a lot more tight alignments on the defensive line, where three down linemen were closely bunched in the middle, often with two edge players flanking them to form what is referred to as a Bear Front (referring to the Buddy Ryan Chicago Bears defense in the ’80s). This alignment makes it very difficult to run up the middle. The same tight bunching can make it susceptible to wide runs.
New York ran outside on 76% of their rushing plays. That was by far a season-high outside rush rate for them. They did not gash the Seahawks, but Breece Hall did average 5.0 yards per carry. That is the highest number by a running back with at least 5 carries against the Seahawks since they made this switch in week nine. The film is out there, and now Macdonald and the Seahawks will have to be ready to adjust to opponent adjustments.
Having Leonard Williams on your side helps. The former Jet and Giant had his second straight superhuman performance. He should not only win Defensive Player of the Week, but also Defensive Player of the Month. This game counts for the November award even though it took place in December.
He is playing what may be the best ball of his career. Williams spoke in training camp about the way this defense was similar in some ways to when Williams had his biggest sack totals.
“A similar coaching staff utilized me this way, Patrick Graham, with the Giants,” Williams said. “I played a lot of 5-technique (defensive end), which I actually like because it creates some mismatches in the run game and the pass game and I like to be utilized that way.”
Seattle is able to move Williams around because they have enough defensive tackle talent with Byron Murphy II, Jarran Reed, Roy Robertson-Harris, and Johnathan Hankins, to allow it. Murphy had one of his more active games in this one with 5 tackles, including one nice pursuit and diving stop.
Nobody is happier to see Williams playing like one of the best defensive players in the league than John Schneider, who gave up 2nd and 5th round picks along with $21.5M per year to add Williams to the lineup. Stacking Williams with Murphy, Devon Witherspoon, Ernest Jones IV, Boye Mafe, Derick Hall, Riq Woolen, Julian Love, Tyrice Knight, Coby Bryant, and more in the last three years has created a core that is capable of high level play.
Uchenna Nwosu may be ready to join the party as soon as this week.
Witherspoon was once again part of the convoy blocking for a teammate on the interception return. He was the guy registering 2+ sacks and having a 90+ yard interception return for a touchdown in this stadium last season. Only three players in NFL history have done that in one game. Two of them play for the Seahawks. Both did it in the same stadium in back-to-back seasons. The other player to do it was James Francis.
Seattle has had three straight games allowing fewer than 300 yards of offense. They have not allowed an offense to score more than 17 points since week nine, and have scored 14 points themselves. They are 4th in EPA/play over that span, 6th in EPA/dropback, and 3rd in rush EPA.
They have done it at home. They have done it on the road. They have done it against division opponents. They have done it against good rushing teams, good passing teams, good offensive lines, good play callers. This is what Macdonald means when he talks about stacking wins.
This defense will be tested the rest of the way, and not just by opposing offenses. The Seahawks offense will lean on them to hold things together while they try to find their footing. Great teams can win games in multiple ways in various game scripts. Right now, the Seahawks have to win defensive struggles.
The offense is scuffling. Geno Smith acknowledged after each of the last two games that defenses are dropping a lot of players into coverage and playing two deep safeties to limit their explosive plays and the pass game in general. Offenses need to be able to run effectively against defenses that are dedicating more players to coverage. Seattle has not been able to do that so far.
As frustrated as fans, and players, and coaches are with the state of the offense, this feels like necessary growing pains. Three of the offensive linemen did not have a start this season before three weeks ago. The team has made some adjustments to the way they are running the ball after the bye. Run blocking takes a lot of coordination and timing, which takes repetition. Seattle has run the ball on 40%+ of their plays four games in a row after doing it just twice in the previous eight games.
Macdonald said he thought it was close last week. I was skeptical. I see it now. This process is important enough to the long-term potential of this team that I am willing to sacrifice games this season to find it. Seattle will never be a championship team if they are as one-dimensional on offense as they have been this season.
Ryan Grubb is increasingly looking like his place is not assured on this staff next season. The chemistry between him and Macdonald has felt off much of the year, and there are philosophical mismatches with how much Macdonald wants to feature a physical run game. If I had to bet, I think Macdonald will hand the offense over to passing game coordinator Jake Peetz next season. Grubb may choose to leave on his own. This has been his first go at the NFL, and it is not for everyone.
It would be ideal if his offense could find its way the rest of the season and the staff stays together to allow for continuity for all involved. Time is running out for that to happen.
Seattle finds itself two games over .500 for the first time since Week 4, and alone in first place after the Cardinals booted a game in Minnesota they led for all but the final two minutes. There can be no sigh of relief for the Seahawks. They travel to Arizona this week to play a game they may need to win to get the division.
The Cardinals have a far more favorable schedule the rest of the way, and the Seahawks would benefit greatly from owning the head-to-head tiebreaker over their division foe. The Rams managed a close win against the Saints but feel like they will fade. San Francisco got blown out again and lost Christian McCaffrey for the year with a knee injury. They are done not only for this season but for this window of title contention.
Seattle is playing meaningful games in December. That is success for Macdonald in his first year, and it has not been easy to get to this point. Credit to him, his staff, the personnel department, and the players for persevering through the turbulence to get here. A division title is in sight even if the quality of the team is in question.
Another first year Seahawks coach wrote a similar tale in his first season when he won a division despite a 7-9 record and even won a home playoff game. Those early Pete Carroll teams also had a habit of playing their best ball in December. Transition years present unique challenges to find players that match the schemes and are bought in to the new regime. Finding a way to win and build toward your best ball late in the year is a great sign. None of the last four games have been complete performances by any stretch, but you can see the outline of an identity starting to form. Nothing is more important.
Beast quake was the first sign of the identity Carroll wanted when he took over. Big Cat’s stalk and sprint may be the play that defines this new era.