There are always two conversations going on during an NFL game. The first is about the outcome of the game being played. It focuses on the matchups between players on the field and coaches on the sidelines. The second is about where the team is headed beyond this game and even this season. Exiting a game with a loss, but feeling positive about the future is common for young teams. You may see glimpses of development of key players that foreshadow future wins in more meaningful seasons. The worst outcome is not feeling bad about the game and feeling bad about the future. There is clarity that can be valuable in those moments about what needs to change. The worst outcome is uncertainty. Uncertainty can come from challenging player evaluations or coaching evaluations or front office evaluations. The Seahawks find themselves facing all of the above after another loss that will likely knock them out of the playoffs. They are caught by the gravitational pull of parity in the NFL, and their only chance to escape it will be to make the right choice on a variety of complex decisions.
The game itself was a credible showing by a team that had failed to show up for their previous opportunities to prove their worth against top competition. Seattle fell behind immediately, as is their custom, and seemed to be headed toward another embarrassment when the deficit quickly reached double digits with a chance to get worse. An unlikely touchdown drive just before halftime, followed by a scoring drive to start the second half, drew them even. A late touchdown gave them the lead before getting beat by the best receiver in football.
Why the team lost and who should shoulder the blame is up for debate. Many will point to interceptions thrown by Geno Smith or play calling from Ryan Grubb. Those are familiar and fair targets. The offense, though, was facing the best defense in football. Only one team outside the NFC North has scored more than the 24 points Seattle scored against the Vikings (LA Rams, 30). That should have been enough to win this game for a team built around defense going up against an offense that has a poor offensive line and a suspect running game.
Nobody would mistake this Seahawks offense for a top-tier unit. There was at least some question about whether this defense had ascended into that conversation. A top defense does not allow a touchdown on that final series. A top tier defense does not have a cornerback lineup offsides on a key 3rd down and then surrender a touchdown on the next play. A top tier defense puts more pressure on a quarterback playing behind that line, and comes away with at least one turnover. Making this offense play on “hard mode” against a defense of this caliber is not a formula for winning.
But I’m not interested in debating who should be blamed for the latest loss. You could be an octopus and still be short of appendages to call out every responsible party. What captured my attention was the implication of not just this game, but an accumulation of performances that have left the Seahawks with some very difficult choices to make.
Geno Smith
This was a quintessential Geno Smith game. He threw 3 touchdowns and made a series of sublime throws. He played through a painful injury and without the benefit of a running game or short fields to alleviate any burden from his shoulders. He also threw two interceptions, and could have thrown more. He eschewed sure yards on easy throws for bigger plays in tight spaces. He put too much trust in his biggest target, D.K. Metcalf, to come through in contested situations.
What has become clear to me over the course of this season is that while the hardcore fan and football analysts debate the merits and flaws of Smith, the casual Seahawks fan largely hates having him as their quarterback. I hear it throughout the stadium during home games. People are waiting for him to make mistakes and deriding him at every turn. They do not care about his faulty surroundings. They care that he has lost as much as he has won, turned it over as much as he has thrown touchdowns. Even the most ardent Smith supporter would need to acknowledge he has shown poor judgment in some critical moments this season.
The reason this matters is that, like it or not, all personnel decisions are not limited to football evaluations. This is a business, and Smith is not popular among the most plentiful portion of the fanbase. That is not the only factor to consider when deciding his future with the team, but it is a larger factor than most would want to admit when evaluating whether to hand over $40-50M per year.
Smith was caught yelling at a fan in the stands at the end of the game. It would not surprise me if the fan said something awful that merited that sort of response, but that does not matter in the court of public opinion. Smith has simply not had the season necessary to convince ownership and the front office to extend him beyond his age 35 year. The rapid decline of Kirk Cousins and the regression of Matthew Stafford does not help either.
This game felt like the final confirmation that Smith will likely be forced to either play out his final year, or perhaps more dramatically, released to pursue other options at the position.
Everyone will have opinions about what the right thing to do here is. It is further complicated by two other upcoming decisions.
Ryan Grubb
I wrote last week that Grubb likely cemented his exit with his play calling against the Packers. He did slightly better in this one, but still went long stretches between calling run plays despite some early success on the ground. At one point, he went multiple series (11 total plays) without calling a handoff to a running back after Kenneth Walker III had 11 yards on a first down run.
The first of Smith’s interceptions came on the first play of a drive during that run drought. There was a 1st and 5 play later in the game in Vikings territory where he again chose to pass on a play that wound up losing 6 yards. His unwillingness to run the ball continues to hurt this team. It was even more egregious in a game where Smith was playing hurt and appeared to have trouble putting weight on his plant leg at times, leading to some inaccurate throws.
I do not believe the decision on Grubb will be challenging. I do believe it complicates a series of other decisions. Whoever the new OC will be likely will want a say in how they handle the quarterback position and could impact the offensive line coach, scheme, and players.
Scott Huff is someone the team should really try to retain, but he may choose to follow Grubb. The line played admirably in this game even if the final interception was largely due to Olu Oluwatimi getting beat immediately on a 3-man rush that forced an early throw from Smith. There were also a ton of unforced errors with false starts and alike. Still, they held up pretty well against one of the best pass rush defenses in football.
Sam Darnold has had a season in 2024 (32 TDs / 11 INTs) that is similar to Smith’s 2022 (30 TDs / 11 INTs). That has a lot to do with the person calling plays. Mike Macdonald can build a terrific defense, but it won’t matter until he has a sustainable offense. That requires some tectonic change on his coaching staff. If they believe Jake Peetz is the guy in-house, that would lessen the turbulence and accelerate the decision-making. If they go outside, the team may face another offseason of scheme and personnel transition.
D.K. Metcalf
The ultra-talented receiver is one of the most difficult decisions ahead for this team. He will command a salary north of $30M per year. His production has not merited that salary, and there is not a lot of reason to think he would provide sufficient return on that level of investment.
He is respected by coaches and players alike who appreciate his work ethic and selflessness. He is genuinely excited when teammates are getting the highlights even when he is not getting the ball. That is not common at the receiver position, especially when the droughts last for long stretches as they do with Metcalf.
There is no doubt that he is the first guy opposing defenses circle when game planning to try and take away. He commands coverages that make life easier for others including the run game. It should be noted, however, that JSN had his biggest game (180 yards) when Metcalf was on the sideline. Saying JSN is only producing at his current levels because of Metcalf is overstating Metcalf’s case.
There appears to be a ceiling on what Metcalf can provide as a #1 receiver. He is too easily taken out of games, and too rarely able to make the big catch his team needs. Justin Jefferson commands at least as much attention as Metcalf, and he is a factor almost every week and close to every play. He has a more diverse route tree and better hands.
The question to answer with Metcalf is whether the team would be better off extending him with a big contract or trying to see if they could gain some draft capital via trade and shift that cap spend elsewhere, like the offensive line.
The 49ers had a similar decision to make this offseason, and they chose to extend Brandon Aiyuk after a protracted holdout and multiple declined trade offers. Even before his injury, that looked like a bad decision they will regret. Aiyuk has been a much more productive receiver than Metcalf the past few seasons.
Generally, teams choose to keep good players they draft, especially when they play premium positions. It seems very likely the Seahawks extend Metcalf. I am not convinced that is the best move for the roster. A talented player who too rarely is the reason you win ballgames should not be where you park $30M+ per year. Further, the receiver position continues to be flush with new talent, and John Schneider has a very good track record for scouting and drafting receivers.
Moving on from Metcalf would mean letting go of your best athlete. That rarely makes you a better team. Should they choose to keep him, they will need to find an OC (and maybe a QB) who is better able to accentuate what Metcalf has to offer.
Riq Woolen
Woolen is your next most talented athlete. He is young, on a rookie deal, and plays a premium position at cornerback. There are metrics that indicate he is one of the top 2-3 corners when in man coverage. He also has been benched in consecutive seasons by two different coaches.
Woolen missed the first series of this game due to a rules violation. This comes after Macdonald acknowledged that Woolen struggles being locked in snap-to-snap.
You could chalk this up to youthful mistakes that he will grow out of. The problem is that he is not showing signs of growth after almost three full seasons as a professional, and his personality conveys a general lack of intensity about his craft. Worse, he is getting beaten in big moments even when he is focused. Jefferson made mincemeat of Woolen multiple times in this one, including the game-winning score. This was not the first time Woolen has been victimized for a game-winner.
Coaches will want to continue to try and get through to Woolen, but I think the only person who really can do it is Devon Witherspoon. Even then, Woolen has to be invested enough in his own development to do things he has been unwilling or unable to do thus far.
Again, moving on from your best athletes that were draft “wins” by your front office generally does not happen. Keeping a guy around who is neither good enough to win against the best receivers nor serious enough to follow team rules before the biggest game of the season is a hard way to build a championship culture.
Macdonald has a very difficult call to make here. Woolen is also due for an extension as he enters the final year of his rookie deal. Deciding whether he is part of the solution or the problem is going to be a crucial call. My instinct is the team should entertaining offers for Woolen. Truly great corners do not struggle the way Woolen has struggled early in his career. Richard Sherman was shutting down A.J. Green as a rookie. There is an intensity that emanates from Macdonald and the players he loves (Witherspoon). Woolen does not have it, and leopards do not change their spots.
Where to go
Seattle needs help to make the playoffs at this point. They will need to win twice and have the Cardinals beat the Rams on the road to have a realistic shot. They have finished the season 3-6 at home, and will need to win at least one of the final two to have a winning record on the year.
This is not a good team. This is not a hopeless team. It is a very complicated team without a clear path to becoming true contenders. Their most promising path would include a defense finishing this season strong, continued development along the offensive line, a new OC that better fits Macdonald’s identity, and the right moves to improve the offensive line this offseason. Even then, they may now have to consider a change at the quarterback position sooner than they might have hoped.
Macdonald and Schneider have their work cut out for them.
