Watch a football game in any era and any level, and you are likely to hear conversation about third down. It is the pivotal down that often determines whether your team keeps the ball or ends their drive. Coaches have made careers devising excellent third down strategies on offense and defense. Mike Macdonald, the Seahawks new head coach, spent time as an intern for Baltimore studying third down strategies across the league and across eras. Some of the best offenses in football avoid third down entirely. They look to the predecessors, first and second down, and devise strategies that allow them skip the headaches and stress that comes with the penultimate down. Like the forgotten older sibling, early downs can go through changes without anyone noticing. NFL offensive play callers are more divided than ever on how to approach early downs, with two of the most extreme examples calling plays for the Seahawks and Packers on Sunday night.
It was not that long ago that Seahawks fans were obsessed with early down play calling. Pete Carroll had been clear how important the run game was to his overall team philosophy. He also had a budding franchise quarterback. That led to some debate about whether the team should be passing more often.
The last time the Packers came to Seattle was in 2018. It was a close, 27-24, win for the Seahawks. The game followed a Carroll-esque script with Seattle running the ball on 55% of early downs. The three-headed running back crew of Chris Carson (83 yards), Rashaad Penny (46 yards), and Mike Davis (26 yards) combined with an efficient Wilson (21/31, 225 yards, 2 TD/0 INT) to beat a Packers team that was far more pass-heavy behind Aaron Rodgers (332 yards).
Seattle would go on and make the playoffs where they faced a Dallas Cowboys team that was determined to stop the run while the Seahawks had some injuries on the offensive line. The Seahawks refused to adjust their early down strategy, running the ball on the majority of their early downs despite anemic results. Seattle would lose that game and the analytic nerd whispers of “Let Russ Cook” became full throated roars across much of the fan base.
It was normal to see charts posted on Twitter showing Seattle at, or near, the bottom of the NFL in early down pass rate. The logic behind early down passing advocates was that most defenses were either more geared toward defending the run on 1st down or at least neutral in their approach. That meant that teams had one of their best chances to pass the ball on that down without facing exotic blitzes or coverages. Passing is more efficient than rushing overall, so anything you can do to improve your passing attack should also help your offense overall. Bigger gains on early downs from passing should also reduce the distance needed to convert a 3rd down, which should have the knock-on effect of limiting what a defense can do to try and stop your offense since either a run or pass could work on 3rd and short.
This perspective became pervasive across the NFL. From 2019-2023, 52.3% of all early downs were pass plays. Just six franchises passes less than 50% on early downs over that span. Times have changed in 2024. Thirteen of the 32 teams in the NFL are running more often that passing on early downs this season. That list includes some of the most prolific scoring teams in football like the Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, and…the Green Bay Packers.
Matt LaFleur’s offense has the lowest early down pass rate in the NFL.
Not only does he run the ball more than anyone, but his offense is lethally efficient whether he passes or rushes on early downs.
Macdonald has noticed the Packers success and the changing landscape of how offenses are attacking early downs.
“Yeah, I think there’s a little bit of a shift going on,” Macdonald said. “More emphasis on running the ball and taking the yards they give you.”
He is quick to point out, though, that these shifts tend be part of an endless cycle of offenses trying to take advantage of what defenses are presenting.
“It’s circular,” Macdonald said. “Defensively, you come up with a solution for something, and you kind of start banging on that door for the offense to say, ‘Okay, we’ve had enough of that. We’re going to do X.’ As a defense, you’ve got to recognize they’re doing X, so we’ve got to do Y. And then a lot of times it ends up just going in circles. There are times to counter. There are times to live with it. There are times to maybe make them think that they have what they want, and you can counter. All of those things are kind of going on, and I think it’s about how well you’re playing the plays you need to stop, and things that you’re trying to take away. Yeah, it’s great to stop the run, put the 1,000 guys in the box, but it’s really easy to score on a 70-yard pass too. So, we’re trying to limit those as well.”
Macdonald came from a Ravens organization that was one of the most run-heavy early down teams in the NFL, even when other teams were emphasizing the pass. His first year offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb, is overseeing one of the most pass-heavy early down offenses. That has come with mixed results. Seattle has been one of the most prolific passing teams in the NFL, but the have struggled to be consistent from drive-to-drive, in part, due to early down inefficiency. Grubb sees early down strategy as at least partially reflective of personnel and team strengths.
“I think [early down play calling] certainly leads to the potential for skillset and what they feel like they’re really good at,” Grubb said. “And I think that some of those things can be systematic for sure, and obviously, Coach LaFleur has had a lot of success with the system that he runs and maybe even more heavy right now than he’s been in the past because of the success that they’ve had. So I think certainly everybody is programmed to follow their system to a point, but everybody’s always going to follow what they feel like gives them the best chance to be efficient on early downs.”
Grubb is right to point out that LaFleur has not always been so fun heavy.
Just last year, Green Bay was close to the middle-of-the-pack in pass rate on early downs. The addition of RB Josh Jacobs has played a major role, as did the injury to QB Jordan Love in the first few weeks.
LaFleur will face an early down defense from Macdonald that has become one of the best in the league after the personnel and scheme changes adopted around midseason. Seattle ranks 2nd in the NFL in early down EPA/play allowed since Week 9. Perhaps most importantly, they rank 1st in early down rush EPA. The two teams that rank right behind the Seahawks, the Vikings and the Eagles, both beat the Packers this season.
Macdonald focuses his game planning on early downs to start the week before moving on to 3rd down strategy.
“We spend a good amount of time game-planning early downs,” Macdonald said. “Normally, earlier in the week you’re working on early downs. As the week starts to evolve, it’s more specific situations like third down and red zone. We practice red zone every day, we’ll practice pressures every day. So, there’s carryover as well, and then it kind of shifts and moves a little bit throughout the week based off of what you think you need to emphasize.”
The Packers defense has done well defending the run on early downs, but have struggled mightily on stopping early down passing. They rank 28th in the NFL in opponent dropback success rate on early downs.
That flaw could be the difference in a game where LaFleur and Macdonald appear well equipped to battle each other when the Packers have the ball. Macdonald may prefer the Carroll style of heavier emphasis on the run game, but letting Grubb cook might be the edge Seattle need to win at home.