The NFL playoffs are nearly here. Prognosticators will debate which team has the best offense, the best defense, the best quarterback, as the primary methods to assess which teams will make the Super Bowl and win it. The head coach will be discussed less often, but will be mentioned as a factor in a game where the slimmest of advantages can be the difference between being a champion or simply the last team to lose. Oddsmakers may want to add another factor to their prediction models. One head coach may not be enough. The last 10 Super Bowl winners have all had staffs with at least two coaches who had prior experience as a head coach. In an age where many franchises are chasing innovative young play callers on both sides of the ball that encourages taking risk on inexperience, teams that prioritize experience on their staff seem to have the advantage.
Look around the top contenders in the NFL this season and one of the things that stands out is how many of them have experienced coaches on both sides of the ball. Kevin O’Connell is almost a lock to win Coach of the Year. His defensive coordinator, Brian Flores, could very well win Assistant Coach of the Year. It is not a coincidence that Sam Darnold or Andrew Van Ginkel are having career years. The Chiefs the favorites to three-peat, and while Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid deserve a huge portion of the credit, neither of them had won a ring before Steve Spagnuolo joined as the defensive coordinator.
The Eagles have rebounded from a terrible end to the 2023 season, especially on defense, by producing one of the best defenses in the league. Vic Fangio was hired in the offseason to remake that side of the ball. Even the Washington Commanders merit a mention as Dan Quinn selected Kliff Kingsbury to oversee what became a top five offense.
Each of these teams boast at least two coaches who have experience as a head coach. That does not ensure they will win a ring, but recent history indicates it could certainly help.
The trend goes back even further. Pete Carroll won the Super Bowl in the 2013 season with Dan Quinn as his top coordinator. Quinn would go on to become a head coach soon after. There have been 17 straight Super Bowl winners who have either had multiple coaches with head coaching experience calling plays on one side of the ball or would go on to become a head coach after the win. Sixteen of the those 17 winners had two coaches with prior head coaching experience calling plays.
The last champ to have two coordinators who had neither been a head coach or would become one was the 2006 Indianapolis Colts with Tony Dungy, Tom Moore (OC), and Ron Meeks (DC).
The Detroit Lions have been favorites in the NFC for some time. They have two coordinators, Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, who could both become head coaches as soon as next season. Neither have done the job before. The Buffalo Bills are another contender without any head coaching experience as either OC (Joe Brady) or DC (Bobby Babich). Neither appear to be on track to becoming a head coach soon.
Baltimore has Todd Monken (OC) and Zach Orr (DC). Neither have head coaching experience in the NFL, nor clear prospects to become a head coach soon. Green Bay is in a similar boat with Adam Stenavich (OC) and Jeff Hafley (DC).
Tampa Bay has a hot head coaching candidate in Liam Coen (OC). The Texans may be a cautionary tale about hot young play callers in the playoffs with little experience. Bobbly Slowik (OC) was a hot name for head coaching vacancies last season before seeing his offense crater this year. Anyone who coaches on Sean McVay’s staff becomes a head coaching candidate, but there has been little buzz about Chris Shula (DC) or Mike LaFleur (OC).
Pittsburgh makes the cut with Arthur Smith (OC) as a recent head coach. The Chargers have Greg Roman (OC) as a career coordinator without a lot of head coaching prospects and Jesse Minter (DC), who could get some interest after turning around the Chargers defense this season.
The players on the field largely determine the outcome of each game. The head coaches set the culture and often have an expertise on one side of the ball that got them to their position. It appears that the very best teams have expert play callers on both sides of the ball who have been so good at their job as to get a shot as the head coach.
Teams that are assembling their staffs or revamping them this offseason may want to take this into consideration. The Seahawks brought aboard Leslie Frazier, who has head coaching experience, to assist Mike Macdonald in his first season. Frazier doubles up on the defensive side of the ball with his expertise and does not have any play calling duties. Seattle chose Ryan Grubb, who not only is without NFL head coaching experience, but lacked any NFL coaching experience, to handle the side opposite of Macdonald’s expertise. That may not be the formula that allows this team, or any team, to maximize their potential.