It has been eventful Seahawks offseason. The team has traded its quarterback and their perceived top wide receiver. They have fired one offensive coordinator, hired another, and brought aboard a bevy of new offensive coaches. They signed a local legend in Cooper Kupp to play receiver and replaced one late blooming Jets quarterback with another in Sam Darnold. Much has been written and talked about these changes. Most of those words have been skeptical at best, and bitingly negative at worst. Notably absent from these discussions is the side of the ball where little has changed: the defense. Mike Macdonald was hired a year ago as arguably the hottest defensive mind in football. He took a group that had been plummeting for years toward the bottom of the league and turned it into a top ten unit in one season. Before buying into the doom and gloom gathering around the 2025 Seahawks, it is worth remembering how good that group was, and how valuable a good defense can be when trying to build. winner in the NFL.
The turning of the tides
Macdonald inherited a defense that was in free fall. The vaunted Legion of Boom was no longer legion or booming. After a dominant stretch from 2012-2016 that saw the Seahawks rank near the top of the league in points and yards allowed, Seattle had become bottom dwellers. Seattle was 25th in points allowed, 30th in yards allowed, 30th in EPA/play allowed, 30th in opponent success rate, and pretty much awful in every defensive metric you could imagine.
Macdonald’s defense finished the season having improved in every measure defensively. These were not small steps forward. What was a bottom five defense in most measures became top ten defense in points allowed and EPA/play allowed. They became sturdy in the red zone (10th) and on 3rd downs (11th).
Not everything was rosy. The rushing defense remained a work in progress for a good chunk of the season. They finished with mediocre rankings in defending the run. They also struggled to create turnovers, ranking 19th.
Hidden beneath these cumulative rankings is the tempest that raged during the middle of the season. Seattle started off ranked as the best defense in the NFL through three weeks, but that was a mirage. They had played three quarterbacks who were either inexperienced (Bo Nix’s first game), unimpressive (Jacoby Brisset), or both (Skylar Thompson). That all came crashing down over the next stretch of three games in 11 days, where they gave up 107 points (35.7 per game) and 1,292 yards (430.7 per game). That even included a game against an unimpressive quarterback (Daniel Jones).
John Schneider and Macdonald did not wait for the off-season to make changes. They traded for DL Roy Robertson-Harris and linebacker Ernest Jones. They elevated CB Josh Jobe to the starting lineup. They started Coby Bryant at safety and Tyrice Knight at the other linebacker spot. Byron Murphy, who had been hurt, returned to the lineup.
It took a couple of additional games and a bye week tweak to the scheme that impacted how they were aligning upfront in order for the defense to pull out of the tailspin. But damage had been done to their season, both statistically and in the win-loss column.
Between weeks 4-8, the Seahawks lost four of five games, and fielded what may have been the worst defense in the NFL. They ranked 30th in points allowed, 31st in yards allowed, and dead last in yards per play allowed. So how did that finish the season with such impressive rankings given nearly a third of their season was spent dragging along the bottom? Those changes to personnel started to settle in. The scheme adjustments mostly held up. Players who began the season a bit overwhelmed by Macdonald’s sophisticated defense became more experienced and effective. The results were sparkling.
Taking out the bye week (week 9), the Seahawks finished the year playing with what was essentially a top five defense. Not listed in the table above is their defensive DVOA ranking over that period was 7th.
They did this against tough competition. The Rams, 49ers, and Cardinals all finished the year ranked 11th or better in offensive DVOA. They had five games against those offenses down the stretch. They also played the 4th ranked Packers offense and the Vikings. Not every game went well, but there was no dismissing this as a mirage.
In fact, Seattle played the toughest defensive schedule of any team in the NFL last season, per DVOA. For them to finish as a top ten defense while cratering during a large stretch of their season and facing the toughest schedule of offenses in the NFL is impressive. That Macdonald accomplished that in his first year while having a clear disconnect with his offensive staff and not having prior experience working with anyone on his defensive staff is remarkable.
What a Top 10 defense gets you
Offense has been all the rage in the NFL for a few decades. It is no surprise that the tectonic shifts Seattle has made on that side of the ball is getting all the attention. The Eagles changed the narrative a bit by winning the Super Bowl with the top-ranked defense, but the reality is the Chiefs won the last two Super Bowls with defense more than offense.
Let us assume for the sake of argument that the Seahawks have not improved on offense after free agency. What if the Seahawks just play a full season with a Top 10 defense? Looking back over the last five seasons of all the teams that finished with a Top 10 defense can give us a little bit of an idea for what kind of team you might see.
Fifty teams finished with a Top 10 defense in points allowed between 2020-2024. Of those 50 teams, 19 (38%) finished with 12+ wins. 26 (52%) finished with 11+ wins, 34 (68%) finished with 10+ wins. The average across all 50 teams was 10.6 wins.
The current over/under projection for Seahawks wins in 2025 is 8.5 wins. Only 9 of 50 teams (18%) that finished in with a Top 10 defense since 2020 have won fewer thank 9 games. The lowest win total among the group belongs to the New York Giants, who finished with 6 wins in 2020 despite a 9th-ranked defense in points allowed.
You can look at DVOA as an alternative that takes opponent strength into account, but the results are largely the same. The average win total for a Top 10 DVOA defense since 2020 is 10.5 (vs 10.6 for a Top 10 defense in points allowed).
But should the Seahawks be satisfied with a Top 10 defense? After all, they were a Top 5 defense over the final eight games of the season, and Macdonald took his defense to even greater heights (1st overall) the year after he led a similar mid-season turnaround in Baltimore.
Seattle returns nearly every starter on that defense. They will enter training camp already knowing the system and the coaches (and vice versa). Players like Muphy and Knight should step forward in their second seasons. Bryant and Jobe will enter their first season preparing to start at their respective positions for the first time. Uchenna Nwosu is expected to play a full year after missing most of the last one. DeMarcus Lawrence has been added to give them an elite run defender on the edge. Jones will be in a place that wants him for the first time in years. And that is without any additional help from the upcoming draft.
What a Top 5 defense gets you
Narrowing the list of defenses that have finished 5th or better in points allowed since 2020 gives us 25 teams. Those 25 teams averaged 11.2 wins per season, up from the 10.6 for 10th or better. Twelve of the 25 (48%) finished with 12+ wins. Sixteen of the 25 (64%) won 11+ games. Twenty of the 25 (80%) finished with 10+ wins.
For those looking to wager, just three of 25 (12%) finished with fewer than 9 wins.
Consider that the Seahawks would not need to improve to play at a Top 5 level. They did it for the last half of the season. Factor in as well that Seattle has what should be an easier schedule of offenses to face. It would be unlikely for them to have the toughest slate two years in a row, even with the unknowns of any NFL season.
DVOA, once again, mirrors points allowed. Top five DVOA defenses averaged 11.4 wins per season compared to 11.2 for those at the top of points allowed rankings.
The offense might also be better
Few are willing to whisper the words at this point of the off-season given that the Seahawks have done nothing to address the personnel of their perennially struggling offensive line. Skepticism is warranted. This team will do nothing interesting as long as the offensive line is one of the worst in the league.
There is reason, though, to think the offense will improve.
Ryan Grubb struggled in his first season in the NFL. He was unable to establish any sort of run game or play-action passing. His 3rd down and red zone offense was among the worst in the league. They telegraphed run/pass by formation and the disconnect between how they ran play-action and how they actually ran the football.
Klint Kubiak does not need to be the next savant play caller to give the offense a big leg up. He needs to install a reputable run game, help the offensive line with a consistent scheme and play-action that looks identical to run plays, and cut down on backbreaking turnovers.
He and his coaching staff have worked together for years. They know the scheme. They know how the offensive line has to play within that scheme. They know it down to the steps that each linemen needs to take and what landmark on the field they need to hit in order to execute their outside zone run game.
This young group of linemen will get the most consistent and comprehensive coaching any Seattle line has received since Tom Cable left.
It is worth noting that this line also finished the season on a meaningful upswing. Once Abe Lucas, Olu Oluwatimi, and Sataoa Laumea were all in the lineup starting in Week 13, the Seahawks were the 7th best running team in the NFL by EPA, and 8th best by yards per rush.
Grubb rewarded that growth by ranking 25th in rush attempts during that stretch. It should be no wonder why Macdonald cited philosophical differences when he let Grubb go after just one season.
Darnold may not do everything as well as Smith, but he threw literally twice the touchdowns in the red zone last year, and led the NFL in explosive passes. Marquez Valdes-Scantling had the best stretch of his career playing with Kubiak, hauling in 4 TDs in 8 games after never having more than 6 TDs in an entire season.
Kenneth Walker III enters a contract year with the most clarity of the scheme they will run, and one that can accentuate a player with the breakaway speed he possesses.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba broke out for a career year, and should only get better. Kupp is an excellent route runner and blocker for his position, which will help the run game.
The team has five picks in the first 92 of the draft, and is certain to add to the offensive room, both on the offensive line and at receiver or tight end.
That doesn’t even factor into the result what it would be like for the offense to benefit from a full season of playing with a great defense that should provide them better field position than last year when they ranked among the bottom of the league in starting field position.
Seattle won 10 games with a roller coaster season on defense and a below average offense. It doesn’t seem like a stretch to think they could win 11-12 games with a more consistently great defense and a less error-prone offense that is capable of better rushing and better red zone performance. That is not what you will hear around the league about the Seahawks right now, which makes it exactly the time to share it here.