Part of what I love about the NFL draft is guessing along with the teams about which players will blossom into NFL stars. The reality is nobody can know for sure with the mountain of variables that range from injury to off-field issues to scheme fit. That unpredictability is what makes sports the best reality show ever invented. The old adage is you cannot judge a draft class for 2-3 years. That may be true in terms of finalizing grades, but there are a few different ways to assess a draft early on. I look at each pick three ways: the player, the fit/need, the value. Where the first two days were great in all aspects, it was a little more mixed on day three, which is to be expected as teams pivot to prioritizing fit/need over value. The aggregate of Seattle’s haul over the full draft has the potential to be placed right alongside the best drafts in franchise history. That would be even more impressive, should it play out, given this was a down year for top talent and the Seahawks did not have top ten pick. Most of Seattle’s great drafts involved at least one top pick (Walter Jones and Shawn Springs in 1997, Russell Okung in 2010, Charles Cross in 2022). This feels more like a 2012 class where the team picked Bruce Irvin at 15, but then added Bobby Wagner and Russell Wilson with their next two picks. Or the 2011 class with James Carpenter late in the first round (no offense to Grey Zabel), but then K.J. Wright, Richard Sherman, Byron Maxwell, and Malcolm Smith later. Those are some big shoes to fill, but it is already clear the opportunity for upside here is sky high.
If you were to design the perfect prospect, they would have a high ceiling and a high floor. In other words, they would have the requisite athletic profile and play skills to stand out in a league full of outliers, while also having a high probability to be a valuable player even if they do not reach the peak of their potential. Byron Murphy II and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are good examples of players who may wind up being All-Pros, but were almost certain to be valuable contributors no matter how things unfolded for their careers.
Teams take those types of players early, with their most valuable draft capital. Strategies shift as the draft extends into day two and three. Some teams focus on high floor players that are highly likely to be someone who can fill a role on their roster even if their ceiling is pretty low. That would be characterized as prioritizing need. Other teams focus on players with a bigger disparity between ceiling and floor. These are “lottery ticket” players who have a lower probability to reach their potential and often come with the risk of not even making a roster. Seahawks fans might remember Jameson Konz from John Schneider’s first draft as being a good example of an ultra-talented athlete who the team was not even sure what position he would play in the NFL that they decided was worth the dice roll in the seventh round. The third style of drafting on day three is focus on value, taking the best player the team has on their board, which tends to balance need, risk, and upside.
Schneider employed different strategies at different stages in this draft. One thing that was consistent throughout was the focus on extreme athleticism. Whether you look at the NFL’s Next Gen Stats or Kent Lee Platte’s Relative Athletic Scores (RAS), the Seahawks had the most athletic draft class of any team in the NFL. In fact, it was historically athletic according to Next Gen Stats.
Being a great athlete does not guarantee anything in the NFL. Just ask Konz. It does increase the likelihood that the player will be able to fit in or stand out in a league full of superhuman athletes. After all, it still is a game that is often decided by whether you can run faster than someone, be stronger than someone, or get around someone.
What you can’t measure is football acumen, instincts, and the makeup of the player. Those intangibles can allow a lesser athlete like Lofa Tatupu (sorry Lofa!) to be a Pro Bowl player and franchise legend. Betting on intangibles and middling or poor athletes is a dangerous game. Betting on pure athletes who fail the intangibles test is not much better.
A big part of what makes this class so exciting is the balance the Seahawks appear to have struck between elite athleticism and promising intangibles.
Nearly every player they picked would seem to score well on both attributes. It starts with Zabel, who is off-the-charts on intangibles. You would generally expect you would have to sacrifice on athleticism/ceiling in those situations, but not with the 99th percentile athlete in Zabel.
Jalen Milroe may have serious obstacles to overcome in order to be an NFL passer, but his intangibles are as unquestioned as his athletic ability.
Players like guard Bryce Cabeldue fit that mold on day three as 99th percentile athlete at guard who is going to work his tail off to apply those gifts in the NFL. The Seahawks even applied that approach to their fullback. Schneider talked about why they were excited to take Robbie Ouzts in the 5th round.
“We added a 275-pound fullback that runs 19 miles an hour. That’s pretty cool,” Schneider said.
Wide receiver Tory Horton, another 5th round pick, said he ran a 4.35 40-yard dash in preparation for the NFL Combine, and posted a 37.5″ vertical leap that came after rehab for an injury to his LCL and hamstring that cost him most of his final college season.
Players selected late still managed to balance athleticism and intangibles. Mason Richman, an offensive tackle from Iowa, posted 91st percentile agility scores, which is something John Benton and Klint Kubiak look for in linemen in their outside zone system.
I asked Cabeldue his favorite type of run play to block for and his answer had to make his new coaches smile.
“I love wide-zone,” Cabeldue said. “Front side of wide-zone and back side of wide zone. You really just get to run off the ball as fast as you can and hit someone as hard as you can. When you get those defenders running a little bit, you can get them out-leveraged, and that’s when you get guys on the ground.”
That speaks to another aspect of this class that stands out: fit. A year after the Seahawks assembled a coaching staff that had never worked together and tried to mesh with a personnel department who had partnered with the same head coach for 14 years, Seattle seems so much more certain of what they want to be and what kind of positions and players they need to be exactly what they envision.
Macdonald sat there as the team made 11 draft picks, with only two on defense, and seemed genuinely enthusiastic about what the team had done. This was a guy who had trouble complimenting the offense after training camp practices last year because he was focused on the performance of the defense.
He knows how important the run game is going to be if this team is truly going to be considered a physical and tough team. He knows converting short yardage and 4th downs and red zone are going to be critical areas of growth. When he talks about complimentary football, a big aspect of that is the collaboration between the offense and defense to make life easier for each other.
Not everything about this draft was perfect. The team did not address a glaring need at nose tackle despite this being a deep and talented nose tackle class. I asked Macdonald about that and he acknowledged that there were some players they liked that got taken before they were able to add them.
I would bet a guy like Cam Jackson, who was taken two picks before Seattle drafted Rylie Mills might have been a target. Yahya Black was taken two picks before Tory Horton. Jay Toia went with the first pick of the 7th round, six picks before Seattle chose running back Damien Martinez.
The team did sign 320-pound nose tackle Thor Griffith as an undrafted free agent. Griffith is incredibly strong and has a chance to make the roster.
The team chose TE Elijah Arroyo over talented corner Shavon Revel Jr, lanky corner Darien Porter, and Azareye’h Thomas. A favorite day three target of mine, Zah Frazier, went three picks after Seattle chose Horton.
I have some minor quibbles with taking an injured Rylie Mills early in the 5th round, and taking a fullback in the 5th round. Mills has the potential to be a great value pick given he was may have gone in the 3rd round had he not torn his ACL. Ouzts seems destined to be a fan favorite and an important part of the offensive transformation into a physical group, but I question whether the team really needed to spend a 5th round pick on a position and player most teams likely did not have on their board. This class would have been even better if they had nabbed a NT and a guy like Frazier and then grabbed Ouzts as a free agent or later round pick.
The team clearly thought highly enough of the player that they did not want to gamble on another team snagging their guy. Mills was essentially traded for Sam Howell. Seattle traded their 172nd pick and Howell to the Vikings to move up 30 spots to pick 142. That is roughly the equivalent of trading Howell for a 6th round pick, which is similar to the what the Seahawks gave up to get Howell last year.
A trade that will be one to watch for years will be Seattle giving up pick 144 in the 5th round to the Browns in exchange for pick 166 in the 5th round and a 6th round pick. Why is such a mundane day three trade so intriguing? The Browns selected quarterback Shedeur Sanders with the pick Seattle gave them, and Seattle chose Horton and Cabeldue with the picks they received in return. You could have won a lot of money if you predicted a team would trade Horton and Cabeldue for Sanders before the draft.
Grades
Round 1 – Guard Grey Zabel
- Player: A
- Fit/Need: A+
- Value: B
- Summary: Has the potential to be one of the best interior linemen in the NFL and an ideal fit for the outside zone scheme, while also being a terrific personality to inject into a relatively reserved offensive line room.
Round 2 – Safety Nick Emmanwori
- Player: A+
- Fit/Need: B
- Value: A+
- Summary: The best athlete ever measured for the position who also was a 1st-team All American. He has cornerback background, linebacker size, and wide receiver speed. My overwhelming impression of him at the Combine was: All-Pro.
Round 2 – Tight End Elijah Arroyo
- Player: B-
- Fit/Need: A-
- Value: A
- Summary: There were other tight ends I liked more for Seattle, but they were all gone by the time they picked. Arroyo has durability concerns and questions about his ability as a blocker, but this was the right gamble to take on a position that is key to Kubiak’s offense.
Round 3 – Quarterback Jalen Milroe
- Player: C
- Fit/Need: B+
- Value: A-
- Summary: I am skeptical of his ability to ever be a competent passer in the NFL, but even if there is a 10% chance of that happening, the potential reward completely justifies the risk and he comes with the bonus of being a valuable weapon even if he never becomes a full-time starter. If everything pans out, this becomes the best pick in the draft for Seattle, and maybe for any team. This is the Powerball pick.
Round 5 – Defensive Lineman Rylie Mills
- Player: B
- Fit/Need: B
- Value: C (cuts both ways since he could have been taken later, in my opinion, but could be a terrific value when healthy)
- Summary: The coaches excitement about him makes him intriguing and he was a critical part of a very good Notre Dame team. I’m not sure I see a high ceiling here, but he talked about Zach Allen as a guy he likes, and if he becomes anything close to Allen or Zach Sieler, this will be a terrific addition.
Round 5 – Wide Receiver Tory Horton
- Player: B+
- Fit/Need: B
- Value: B+
- Summary: This is a player who some saw worthy of a 3rd round pick. He is a 98th percentile athlete at a very athletic position, and can contribute as a punt returner as well. He had the same receiving grade as 1st round pick Tetairoa McMillan in 2023 when he played his last full season. He has terrific hands and makes contested catches. Seattle would have ideally added an X receiver, and Horton profiles more as a flanker.
Round 5 – Fullback Robbie Ouzts
- Player: A
- Fit/Need: A
- Value: D
- Summary: Ouzts looks the part, plays the part, and loves the part. He is a surprisingly good athlete and is adept at targeting blocks on the move. He is a capable receiver and can potentially be more than just a blocker, but even if he just is a terrific blocker in the run game, he would be a critical addition. Given that only a few teams use a fullback, Ouzts may have the best chance of making a Pro Bowl or getting eventual All-Pro recognition from this class.
Round 6 – Guard Bryce Cabeldue
- Player: B
- Fit/Need: A
- Value: A
- Summary: I was advocating the Seahawks take Cabeldue as high as the 4th round (they had a very late 4th, to be fair). He is incredibly athletic off the line and seems to embody everything John Benton is looking for in his linemen. He will add a lot to a now competitive guard spot on the roster. It would not surprise me if he pushes some other guys off the roster and makes the final 53.
Round 7 – Running Back Damien Martinez
- Player: B
- Fit/Need: C-
- Value: A-
- Summary: Wrecking ball of a running back who does not get enough credit for his agility in and out of his cuts. Will drag tacklers with him. Only Ashton Jeanty averaged more yards after contact in college football last year. It’s a very crowded running back room. Martinez may be destined for the practice squad.
Round 7 – Tackle Mason Richman
- Player: C
- Fit/Need: B
- Value: C
- Summary: Richman is a guy they probably could have added as a free agent but the team did not want to risk it. He’s a great personality and hard worker to add to the room. Even if he makes it to the practice squad as a developmental player, he will have been work the pick.
Round 7 – Wide Receiver Ricky White III
- Player: B
- Fit/Need: C
- Value: B+
- Summary: This was a value-driven pick who would have been drafted earlier before a poor combine performance. He raised his stock with a better Pro Day. He’s a good all-around receiver who has been an excellent special teams performer, blocking four punts last season. He will push for a roster spot if that special teams prowess translates to the NFL.
OVERALL: A
The combination of talent, fit, and value in this class is as good as any in franchise history…a day after the picks were made. As with any class, it could be waylaid by any number of things. Schneider entered with five picks in the first 92 selections and moved around the board deftly to exit with a lot of quality talent. It is now up to Macdonald and the coaches to maximize every drop of talent these guys have to offer and put them in position to impact the culture and identity he came to Seattle to establish.