Lucas is losing his battles. Zabel is losing his help.

Abraham Lucas and Grey Zabel are both allowing more pressure than the league average at their spots this year. Lucas allowed pressure at 0.68 times the league tackle rate in 2025. This year it's 1.26 times, and his Value Over Replacement, where 100 is replacement level, fell from 127.2, 30th of 96 regular tackles, to 97.2, 50th of 69, below replacement level. Zabel went from 0.90 times the league guard rate to 1.17. His VOR fell from 137.7, 18th of 96 guards, to 104.4, 45th of 75.

Sumer Sports charting; Player Evaluator VOR (computed 2026-10-18 by 2026-10-17-lucas-zabel-step-back.py). Regular season. 2026 is Weeks 1-6. League rate is every tackle (Lucas) or guard (Zabel) that season. Against the league: 1.00 is average, higher is worse. VOR rank is among regular starters at his position; 100 VOR is replacement level.

Blockers across the NFL are being charged with much more pressure this year than last. Over the first six weeks of each season, tackles have gone from allowing pressure on 4.4% of pass-block snaps to 5.7%, guards from 3.7% to 5.1%, centers from 2.4% to 3.8%. The league's sack rate held close to flat, 6.3% to 6.1%. A plain 2025-to-2026 comparison is misleading for that reason, so Lucas and Zabel are measured against their own position in the same season.

Player or system?

There are two ways a lineman's numbers fall. He gets worse, or Seattle asks harder things of him. Each leaves its own marks. If it's the player, he is worse even when he gets help, he loses fast, and the gap is still there once the situation is taken out. If it's the system, he is fine with help, his timing holds, and the gap goes away once the situation is taken out. Both men get the same tests here, and the first one is when each slide began.

This is where the two men split. Lucas got better all through 2025: 0.82 times the league rate in his first nine weeks, 0.56 from Week 10 on, 0.25 in the playoffs. Then he fell to 1.26 this year. Zabel's rate moved the other way last year, 0.53 early, 1.20 from Week 10 on, 1.26 in the playoffs, and his 2026 number, 1.17, matches his second half of last season more than his start to it.

Sumer Sports charting (computed 2026-10-18 by 2026-10-17-lucas-zabel-step-back.py)

Sumer Sports charting (computed 2026-10-18 by 2026-10-17-lucas-zabel-step-back.py). 1.00 is the league rate at his position over the same weeks (the playoffs use Weeks 10-18). Higher is worse. Rows marked pass-block snaps give the sample.

It isn't the rushers

Rusher quality doesn't explain either man's decline. Lucas's rushers this year carried an average 111.6 VOR, almost identical to his first half of 2025 (111.7). He handled tougher pass rushers late last season, 115.0 and then 121.1 in the playoffs, and allowed less pressure against them. Zabel's rushers this year average 109.5 VOR, a higher average than his soft early-2025 group (104.0) but well short of what he faced late last year: 121.7 in Weeks 10-18, when his rate rose the most, and 128.6 in the playoffs.

Player Evaluator VOR; Sumer Sports charting (pairings) (computed 2026-10-18 by 2026-10-17-lucas-zabel-step-back.py). Rep-weighted VOR of every rusher he blocked, in that season. A double team counts each rusher. The last column rates 2026's opponents on their 2025 seasons. 130+ is a strong starter.

What help does for each man

Both men block alone more often than they did last year. What happens to each of them when help does arrive?

Lucas is losing fast, off the edge

A pressure in under 2.5 seconds is on the blocker. How often is that happening to Lucas now, and whom is he losing to?

Take the situation away

Take out the league-wide change, the lost help, the rushers, the score and the play calls, one at a time. Whose gap is left?

Stunts aren't the leak

Teams are running more games at Seattle's line, with two rushers crossing. Is that where the pressure is coming from?

What Seattle should do

Some help nearly erases the fast losses, and some costs a route Seattle can't spare. What should Seattle do for each man?