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Real Hawk TalkNew 5h ago

Big Test From KC

Evan Hill, Nathan Ernst, and I talk through this challenging matchup between the Seahawks and the undefeated Chiefs. Is it realistic to go from the team we saw lose to the…

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Today on HB
  1. Last night Real Hawk TalkBig Test From KC Up
  2. 6 AM HB Daily Later
  3. Noon Sam Darnold press conferenceClips, then the full presser Later
  4. ~3 PM Brian Fleury and Aden DurdeThe coordinators Later
  5. ~4 PM Injury report 2 of 3Who practiced, for both teams Later
Game week · vs Chiefs

Locker Room

Brian talked with 3 Seahawks on Wednesday. Tap a player to listen.

Apple Podcasts →

Ty Okada

A quick and funny chat with Ty Okada, where he gives us his strategy for wrestling AJ Barner

10h ago

Josh Jones

Josh Jones wasn't sure I wanted to talk to him, but I did! We discussed what is needed to get things back on track on the OL.

10h ago

AJ Barner

Talks Leadership

10h ago
Injury report 1 of 3 · Wednesday

Who's practicing: Seahawks vs Chiefs

Next report Thursday about 4 PM PT. Seahawks.com →

DNP did not practice Ltd limited Full full · ▲ better ▼ worse than the last report · New added · Cleared off the report

Seahawks

Wed
Chazz Surratt LB · Calf DNP
Connor O'Toole LB · Hamstring DNP
DeMarcus Lawrence LB · NIR-Resting Player DNP
Drake Thomas LB · Ankle DNP
Anthony Bradford G · Knee Ltd
Beau Stephens G · Knee Ltd
Drew Lock QB · Right Elbow Ltd
Rashid Shaheed WR · Hip Ltd
Tyrice Knight LB · Oblique Ltd
Zach Charbonnet RB · Knee Full

Chiefs

Wed
Jaylon Moore OT · Concussion DNP
Josh Simmons OT · Back/NIR (Personal) DNP
Rashee Rice WR · Hamstring/Knee DNP
Cooper McDonald LB · Knee Ltd
L'Jarius Sneed CB · Knee Ltd
Travis Kelce TE · Ankle Ltd
Chamarri Conner DB · Knee Full
Cyrus Allen WR · Knee Full
Patrick Mahomes QB · Knee Full
Trey Smith G · Hip Full

The Show

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1:11:00
Latest episode · Wed, Oct 21 · 9.7K views

REAL HAWK TALK: Big Test From KC

Evan Hill, Nathan Ernst, and I talk through this challenging matchup between the Seahawks and the undefeated Chiefs. Is it realistic to go from the team we saw lose to the…

Listen to this episodeDaily Seahawks Podcast
Ad-free on Patreon
Apple PodcastsSpotify
Earlier this week
  • FIRST LOOK: Seahawks vs Chiefs1:07
  • Fix It: Hasselbeck Weighs In1:26
  • NFC Chaos: What Happens Next?1:23
Locker Room · 4 player clips this week→
Brought to you by Local team. Local coverage.go.pemco.com/hawkblogger

This Week in the Numbers

HB Analytics →

Seahawks risers and fallers

VOR after the Week 6 game at Broncos
Rising
Falling

VOR is value over replacement, from the Player Evaluator. 100 is replacement level, and every 30 points is a full step up. See every player →

The Playoff Race

Explore every team →

Seahawks' playoff odds

60%to make the playoffs
Win the West
4%
1 seed
2%
Super Bowl
8%
1 seed 2%Seeds 2-4 3%Seeds 5-7 56%Out 40%

Projected NFC field

Each division's favorite, then the three best wild card bets. Bars are playoff odds. A 4 is a team's seed if the season ended today.

Division favorites

  1. 49ers6-0299%
  2. Vikings5-0194%
  3. Panthers3-2375%
  4. Giants3-2-1447%

Wild cards

  1. Packers4-2566%
  2. Lions3-2764%
  3. Seahawks3-360%

In the hunt

  1. Bears4-2659%
  2. Cowboys2-432%
  3. Rams2-431%

Rooting interests

The other teams' games that matter most to the Seahawks' playoff odds the rest of the way.

Week 14 · Sun, Dec 13 Root for the 49ers vs Rams +4.0−0.1 SB
Week 7 · Thu, Oct 22 Root for the Patriots at Bears +3.5+0.4 SB
Week 14 · Sun, Dec 13 Root for the Dolphins vs Bears +3.4+0.4 SB
Week 8 · Thu, Oct 29 Root for the Panthers at Packers +3.3+0.4 SB
Every game, every team →

Points of playoff odds, from 60,000 simulated seasons with the NFL's full tiebreakers. SB is the same game's worth to Seattle's Super Bowl odds. Updated 18h ago.

Insight of the Day

HB Daily →
YesterdayWed, Oct 21 · Chiefs

Something has to give: Seattle's 35-game streak without a 100-yard rusher, against Walker's four 100-yard games in five

The last time it happened was James Cook, 111 yards on 17 carries, October 27, 2024. A few backs have come within shouting distance since. The next five highest: Josh Jacobs's 94 on December 15, 2024, Kyren Williams's 91 on 12 carries last November, James Conner's 90 that same December, Jonathan Taylor's 87 this past December and Bijan Robinson's 86 a week before that. This season's best against Seattle is Christian McCaffrey's 68, in Week 5.

The closest calls since Cook
DateOpponentTop rusherYards
Dec 15, 2024GBJosh Jacobs94
Nov 16, 2025LAKyren Williams91
Dec 8, 2024ARIJames Conner90
Dec 14, 2025INDJonathan Taylor87
Dec 7, 2025ATLBijan Robinson86
Read yesterday's issue
TuesdayTue, Oct 20 · Seahawks

Give Macdonald extra rest, and Seattle crushes the Vegas line

That is not just rest. Every NFL team with 10 or more days to prepare from 2015 to 2025 beat the line by about 0.3 points a game, barely anything. Seattle's +15.2 points a game is something else: the coach, a small sample, or both.

Every NFL team vs the Vegas line with 10 or more days to prepare, 2015-2025
RestTeam-gamesAvg marginMargin vs lineCover rate
10+ days722+0.9+0.351.4%
Read Tuesday's issue
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Fri, Oct 16

The Morning After: Mile Low In Denver

Mike Macdonald has faced challenges before. He had a defense that was malfunctioning during his first season as head coach in Seattle. His offense was both ineffective and divergent from the identity…

Wed, Oct 14

Tale of the Tape: Seahawks vs Broncos

Pain is a part of the NFL. The Seahawks are dealing with the physical and emotional toll of an intense divisional loss to the 49ers on Sunday. Their schedule does them no favors by sending them on…

Mon, Oct 12

The Morning After: Scuffling Offense Dooms Seahawks

The Seahawks are in trouble. It would be easy to look at a close loss to the undefeated 49ers and come to the conclusion that they are just a few adjustments away from being the best team in…

HB Analytics

All tools →
Team Grid of the Day · TodayBuild your own grid →

Stopping the run and the pass

RUSH SUCCESS RATE ALLOWED · BETTER →DROPBACK SUCCESS ALLOWED · BETTER →NFL medianArizona Cardinals: 41.7% (14th), 46.9% (24th)Atlanta Falcons: 37.6% (7th), 43.6% (11th)Baltimore Ravens: 37.6% (6th), 42.9% (10th)Buffalo Bills: 42.9% (20th), 50.4% (29th)Carolina Panthers: 40.9% (12th), 44.9% (16th)Chicago Bears: 42.9% (19th), 39.2% (3rd)Cincinnati Bengals: 41.9% (15th), 46.1% (22nd)Cleveland Browns: 43.0% (21st), 42.2% (7th)Dallas Cowboys: 44.0% (25th), 55.1% (32nd)Denver Broncos: 39.4% (10th), 42.1% (6th)Detroit Lions: 42.1% (18th), 52.1% (30th)Green Bay Packers: 43.1% (22nd), 43.8% (13th)Houston Texans: 41.5% (13th), 42.0% (5th)Indianapolis Colts: 46.6% (30th), 42.3% (8th)Jacksonville Jaguars: 35.9% (5th), 46.8% (23rd)Kansas City Chiefs: 32.8% (1st), 41.8% (4th)Los Angeles Rams: 43.4% (24th), 45.5% (19th)Los Angeles Chargers: 42.0% (16th), 45.5% (20th)Las Vegas Raiders: 42.0% (17th), 48.6% (27th)Miami Dolphins: 43.3% (23rd), 54.1% (31st)Minnesota Vikings: 33.3% (2nd), 35.2% (1st)New England Patriots: 39.1% (8th), 45.8% (21st)New Orleans Saints: 49.1% (31st), 50.2% (28th)New York Giants: 44.2% (27th), 45.3% (18th)New York Jets: 44.1% (26th), 44.6% (15th)Philadelphia Eagles: 45.5% (29th), 45.1% (17th)Pittsburgh Steelers: 40.3% (11th), 43.6% (12th)San Francisco 49ers: 44.6% (28th), 42.3% (8th)Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 35.7% (4th), 43.9% (14th)Tennessee Titans: 39.3% (9th), 46.9% (25th)Washington Commanders: 50.0% (32nd), 48.4% (26th)Seattle Seahawks: 34.6% (3rd), 38.5% (2nd)Stops bothPass defense onlyRun defense onlyLeaky
RUSH SUCCESS RATE ALLOWED · BETTER →DROPBACK SUCCESS ALLOWED · BETTER →NFL medianArizona Cardinals: 41.7% (14th), 46.9% (24th)Atlanta Falcons: 37.6% (7th), 43.6% (11th)Baltimore Ravens: 37.6% (6th), 42.9% (10th)Buffalo Bills: 42.9% (20th), 50.4% (29th)Carolina Panthers: 40.9% (12th), 44.9% (16th)Chicago Bears: 42.9% (19th), 39.2% (3rd)Cincinnati Bengals: 41.9% (15th), 46.1% (22nd)Cleveland Browns: 43.0% (21st), 42.2% (7th)Dallas Cowboys: 44.0% (25th), 55.1% (32nd)Denver Broncos: 39.4% (10th), 42.1% (6th)Detroit Lions: 42.1% (18th), 52.1% (30th)Green Bay Packers: 43.1% (22nd), 43.8% (13th)Houston Texans: 41.5% (13th), 42.0% (5th)Indianapolis Colts: 46.6% (30th), 42.3% (8th)Jacksonville Jaguars: 35.9% (5th), 46.8% (23rd)Kansas City Chiefs: 32.8% (1st), 41.8% (4th)Los Angeles Rams: 43.4% (24th), 45.5% (19th)Los Angeles Chargers: 42.0% (16th), 45.5% (20th)Las Vegas Raiders: 42.0% (17th), 48.6% (27th)Miami Dolphins: 43.3% (23rd), 54.1% (31st)Minnesota Vikings: 33.3% (2nd), 35.2% (1st)New England Patriots: 39.1% (8th), 45.8% (21st)New Orleans Saints: 49.1% (31st), 50.2% (28th)New York Giants: 44.2% (27th), 45.3% (18th)New York Jets: 44.1% (26th), 44.6% (15th)Philadelphia Eagles: 45.5% (29th), 45.1% (17th)Pittsburgh Steelers: 40.3% (11th), 43.6% (12th)San Francisco 49ers: 44.6% (28th), 42.3% (8th)Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 35.7% (4th), 43.9% (14th)Tennessee Titans: 39.3% (9th), 46.9% (25th)Washington Commanders: 50.0% (32nd), 48.4% (26th)Seattle Seahawks: 34.6% (3rd), 38.5% (2nd)Stops bothPass defense onlyRun defense onlyLeaky

Seattle: 3rd in rush success rate allowed (34.6%), 2nd in dropback success allowed (38.5%).

Stops both · 10VikingsChiefsSeahawksRavensBroncosBuccaneersFalconsTexans+2 more

Data: nflverse play-by-play. Open this grid →

This week
More from HB Analytics
Team Evaluator · last 4 games

Seattle's trends

Offense · 24ththis season
−0.60−0.40−0.20−0.00+0.20−0.05Week 3: at Washington CommandersWk 3−0.09Week 4: vs. Los Angeles ChargersWk 4−0.43Week 5: vs. San Francisco 49ersWk 5−0.10Week 6: at Denver BroncosWk 6
Defense · 2ndlower is better
−0.20−0.100.00+0.10−0.08Week 3: at Washington CommandersWk 3−0.09Week 4: vs. Los Angeles ChargersWk 4−0.14Week 5: vs. San Francisco 49ersWk 5−0.14Week 6: at Denver BroncosWk 6

The dashed line is the NFL average that week. Green beat it, orange didn't.

Open the Team Evaluator →
Updated 16h ago

Power Rankings

See all 32 →
Player Evaluator

Seahawks by VOR

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR173 VOR · 29th in NFL
Julian LoveS168 VOR · 39th in NFL
Leonard WilliamsIDL159 VOR · 65th in NFL
Byron MurphyIDL153 VOR · 89th in NFL
All 886 regulars →
Seahawks Cap Outlook · 2026

Where the money goes

Rodney ThomasS118 VOR on $0.96M
George HolaniRB102 VOR on $1.07M
Jalen SundellOL100 VOR on $1.07M
Ty OkadaS101 VOR on $1.15M
Christian HaynesOL104 VOR on $1.58M

Most value over replacement per $1M of 2026 cap.

Open →
More from HB Analytics

Social

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XLatest from BrianFollow on X
Brian Nemhauser@hawkblogger · 4h

Uh oh @EvanHillHB!
Brian Nemhauser@hawkblogger · 5h

The Seahawks signed LB John Ross to the practice squad. That may have something to do with the recent injury to Chazz Surratt. I do not believe it is related to Drake Thomas, but we shall see. Guard Evan Beentsen was released to create space.
Brian Nemhauser@hawkblogger · 7h

It's time for @RealHawkTalk! Come on over and hang with @EvanHillHB @NathanE11 as we talk about this matchup with the Chiefs
Brian Nemhauser@hawkblogger · 7h

Anthony Bradford was limited and Zach Chardonnay was a full go. The Chiefs right tackle did not practice with a concussion
Brian Nemhauser@hawkblogger · 8h

Anthony Bradford stretches ahead of Wednesday practice
Brian Nemhauser@hawkblogger · 8h

The new right side of the Seahawks line, back to the old right side. Anthony Bradford and Abe Lucas warm up for practice
Brian Nemhauser@hawkblogger · 8h

Zach Charbonnet getting ready for Wednesday practice
Brian Nemhauser@hawkblogger · 9h

You've studied so many great DCs. What does Steve Spagnuolo do that allows him to create all these pressures in big games and big moments? "I think he has a great understanding of how to systematically approach a team."
Brian Nemhauser@hawkblogger · 9h

The Chiefs excel at stopping outside zone run game. You guys major in that. You've done better with man scheme runs. How do you decide how much to stick with your major versus adapt to opponent? Cool answer from Mike Macdonald
More on X →
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