PinnedHB LIVE! First Show At Victory Hall With Brady Henderson
ShowREAL HAWK TALK: Can Seahawks Turn It Around In Denver?
Follow on X
5hNEWVideoI think Leah does some of the best work out there for balancing data with worthy questions. Not sure if she’s on here, but worth a follow on TikTok
6hNEWThere are some Seahawks fans who think Brian Fleury should already be on the hot seat. @EvanHillHB @NathanE11 and I shared our thoughts on the OC, and our predictions for TNF vs Denver on @RealHawkTalk
9hNEWLanded in Denver! Let's do a rapid fire @RealHawkTalk with @EvanHillHB and @NathanE11
Come on over!10hNEWThis league makes absolutely no sense sometimes.11hNEWTale of the Tape is up previewin this Seahawks vs Broncos matchup
11hNEWDrake Thomas will not play in this one. Neither will Zach Charbonnet.
Look for Tyrice Knight to start, but that could also lead to other lineups with more DBs.
Broncos list Riley Moss as questionable.12hNEWThe roster manuevers continue for the Seahawks. Irv Charles has been signed to the practice squad and Velus Jones back to the 53. We will see if Charles is elevated for the game tomorrow.
16hNEWI shared my perspective on some of the conversation my question to Brian Fleury sparked, as well as the somewhat unhinged discourse around the Seahawks following this past game, plus some keys to this matchup with Denver.
17hNEWLet's take a First Look at this throwback matchup between former AFC West rivals in Denver.
Come on over!
TueNEWVideoThe progression of Byron Murphy II into an absolute game-wrecker has been fun to watch.
He is well on his way to forcing voters to recognize him as an All-Pro.
Pick a tape and it goes in the VCR.
Injury report
Reserve lists
Injury report
Reserve lists
At 3:45 PM PT, 90 minutes before kickoff, each team's inactive list replaces its injury report.
Chance of rain by hour, Pacific time.
No call-ups yet. Teams make them by the afternoon before the game.
The last game, the next one, and the numbers that explain both. From Brian Nemhauser.
Grade is yards per route he takes away on a typical rep, against the receivers he covered. Every grade is adjusted for the opponent, and small samples are pulled toward average. Data: Sumer Sports player-by-player charting.
Grade is yards per route he adds on a typical route, against the defenders who covered him. Every grade is adjusted for the opponent, and small samples are pulled toward average. Data: Sumer Sports player-by-player charting.
Grade is how much he raises the pressure rate on a typical rep, in percentage points, against the blockers he faced. Every grade is adjusted for the opponent, and small samples are pulled toward average. Data: Sumer Sports player-by-player charting.
Grade is how much he cuts the pressure rate on a typical rep, in percentage points, against the rushers he faced. Every grade is adjusted for the opponent, and small samples are pulled toward average. Data: Sumer Sports player-by-player charting.
Grade is how much he raises the disruption rate on a typical run, in percentage points, against the blockers he faced. Every grade is adjusted for the opponent, and small samples are pulled toward average. Data: Sumer Sports player-by-player charting.
Grade is how much he cuts the disruption rate on a typical run, in percentage points, against the defenders he faced. Every grade is adjusted for the opponent, and small samples are pulled toward average. Data: Sumer Sports player-by-player charting.
VOR is value over replacement, from the Player Evaluator. 100 is replacement level, and every 30 points is a full step up. See every player →
Franchise cornerstone. Seattle's No. 1 player by VOR this season.
Best at pass breakups + ints per 100 coverage snaps (96th percentile) and run defense net positive plays % (95th percentile). Weakest at missed tackle % (24th percentile).
Full profile in the Player Evaluator →Franchise cornerstone. The Broncos' best player by VOR.
Best at quick pressures per 100 rushes (ftn) (97th percentile) and pressure rate vs blockers faced (pts) (97th percentile). Weakest at run stuff rate (ftn) % (29th percentile).
Full profile in the Player Evaluator →Below replacement. The lowest-rated regular in the Broncos' lineup.
Best at sack rate % (84th percentile) and missed tackle % (70th percentile). Weakest at run stuff rate (ftn) % (2nd percentile).
Full profile in the Player Evaluator →Each spoke is one input to his VOR, scored against his position. The number in each dot is his percentile. The dashed ring is replacement level.
The HB matchup model: each player's opponent-adjusted grade over the reps he's projected to see against the other. Data: HB matchup model on Sumer Sports charting.
Zach Allen is the matchup to watch on the offensive line. The model's board has him beating Grey Zabel for a projected 0.4 pressures on the 12 reps they're likely to share.
| Phase | Seahawk | Opponent | Favors | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass rush | Charles Cross (T) | Nik Bonitto (EDGE) | DEN | 0.04 pressures |
| Run game | Demarcus Lawrence (EDGE) | Mike McGlinchey (T) | SEA | 0.03 disruptions |
| Run game | Byron Murphy (IDL) | Ben Powers (G) | SEA | 0.4 disruptions |
| Pass rush | Grey Zabel (G) | Zach Allen (IDL) | DEN | 0.4 pressures |
| Run game | A.J. Barner (TE) | Alex Singleton (LB) | DEN | 0.2 disruptions |
| Run game | Jarran Reed (IDL) | Quinn Meinerz (G) | DEN | 0.3 disruptions |
| Season | Stat | Under center | Shotgun | NFL (UC / gun) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Share of dropbacks | 33% | 67% | 18% / 82% |
| 2025 | EPA per dropback | +0.32 (6th) | +0.04 (23rd) | +0.14 / +0.02 |
| 2025 | Success rate | 55% (7th) | 51% (4th) | 50% / 45% |
| 2025 | Yards per attempt | 10.7 (2nd) | 7.5 (10th) | 7.9 / 6.9 |
| 2025 | INT rate | 3.8% (21st) | 2.6% (31st) | 2.0% / 2.2% |
| 2026 | Share of dropbacks | 35% | 65% | 21% / 79% |
Women's Nike Julian Love Royal Seattle Seahawks Throwback Player Game Jersey
$149.99
Men's Nike Julian Love College Navy Seattle Seahawks Game Jersey
$149.99
Men's Nike Jaxon Smith-Njigba Royal Seattle Seahawks Throwback Player Game Jersey
$149.99
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Seattle Seahawks Autographed Riddell Speed Authentic Helmet - Art by King Saladeen - Limited Edition #1/1
$8099.99
HawkBlogger earns a commission when you buy through these links. It helps keep the show going.
Pain is a part of the NFL. The Seahawks are dealing with the physical and emotional toll of an intense divisional loss to the 49ers on Sunday. Their schedule does them no favors by sending them on…
The Seahawks are in trouble. It would be easy to look at a close loss to the undefeated 49ers and come to the conclusion that they are just a few adjustments away from being the best team in…
Here we are again. Seahawks versus 49ers. One team enters undefeated. The other team enters with a dust-free Lombardi Trophy. Whichever team wins will leave in first place in the NFL’s toughest…
Seattle: 6th in rush success rate allowed (35.6%), 3rd in dropback success allowed (40.4%).
Stops both · 9VikingsSeahawksFalconsTexansRavensChiefsBroncosPatriots+1 more
Data: nflverse play-by-play. Open this grid →
Seattle: 22nd in success rate (41.5%), 14th in explosive play rate (9.5%).
Both · 1249ersBillsRavensChiefsLionsJaguarsPatriotsRams+4 more
Data: nflverse play-by-play. Open this grid →
Seattle: 13th in 1st down success rate (45.0%), 30th in 2nd & 8+ escape rate (21.6%).
Ahead of the chains · 949ersChiefsRavensPanthersBillsLionsCowboysPatriots+1 more
Data: Sumer Sports charting. Open this grid →
Seattle: 24th in EPA per play (−0.073), 2nd in EPA per play allowed (−0.137).
Good at both · 749ersJaguarsChiefsRamsRavensBengalsTexans
Data: nflverse play-by-play. Open this grid →
Seattle: 14th in explosive play rate (9.5%), 2nd in explosive play rate allowed (6.7%).
Hit big, allow little · 1049ersJaguarsPatriotsFalconsSeahawksChiefsPanthersTexans+2 more
Data: nflverse play-by-play. Open this grid →
Seattle: 16th in dropback EPA (+0.087), 30th in rush EPA per play (−0.218).
Both work · 9BillsRavensChiefs49ersJaguarsLionsCowboysRams+1 more
Data: nflverse play-by-play. Open this grid →
Seattle: 4th in pressure rate (37.5%), 2nd in 20+ yard pass rate allowed (4.8%).
Get home, allow nothing deep · 9SeahawksVikingsChiefsRamsRaidersBroncosPanthersFalcons+1 more
Data: nflverse play-by-play · FTN charting. Open this grid →
Seattle: 6th in rush success rate allowed (35.6%), 3rd in dropback success allowed (40.4%).
Stops both · 9VikingsSeahawksFalconsTexansRavensChiefsBroncosPatriots+1 more
Data: nflverse play-by-play. Open this grid →
The dashed line is the NFL average that week. Green beat it, orange didn't.
Open the Team Evaluator →Biggest climb: Packers ▲10 to 10th
Seattle trails the 49ers by 1.5 points of HB rating, 2nd in the NFL. Ranks are in the NFL.
The biggest 2026 cap hits, of $294.6M on 63 players.
Most value over replacement per $1M of 2026 cap.
23 Seahawks are in the last year of their deals, $61.9M of this year's cap. Best by VOR first.
How the Seattle Seahawks silenced all doubts and became Super Bowl LX champions.
The best daily dose of Seahawks and NFL insights, delivered to your inbox.
You're on the list. Check your inbox and tap Confirm to keep the issues coming. One email address, nothing else. Unsubscribe any time.
Social
Follow @hawkblogger →I think Leah does some of the best work out there for balancing data with worthy questions. Not sure if she’s on here, but worth a follow on TikTok
There are some Seahawks fans who think Brian Fleury should already be on the hot seat. @EvanHillHB @NathanE11 and I shared our thoughts on the OC, and our predictions for TNF vs Denver on @RealHawkTalk
Landed in Denver! Let's do a rapid fire @RealHawkTalk with @EvanHillHB and @NathanE11 Come on over!
This league makes absolutely no sense sometimes.
Tale of the Tape is up previewin this Seahawks vs Broncos matchup
Drake Thomas will not play in this one. Neither will Zach Charbonnet. Look for Tyrice Knight to start, but that could also lead to other lineups with more DBs. Broncos list Riley Moss as questionable.
The roster manuevers continue for the Seahawks. Irv Charles has been signed to the practice squad and Velus Jones back to the 53. We will see if Charles is elevated for the game tomorrow.
I shared my perspective on some of the conversation my question to Brian Fleury sparked, as well as the somewhat unhinged discourse around the Seahawks following this past game, plus some keys to this matchup with Denver.
Let's take a First Look at this throwback matchup between former AFC West rivals in Denver. Come on over!