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2hNEWCelebrating throwbacks on today
3hNEWThere is a lot of bad analysis out there about what is going on with the Seahawks offense. @qdiggs6 and I attacked it from both angles: data and strategy. Great insights into the boot game from Q.
4hNEWWe get to check in with Seahawks Legend @qdiggs6 ahead of this @TNFPrimeVision matchup between the Seahawks and Broncos.
Come on over!
4hNEWThe real difference between when Darnold was lighting the league up last year and where he is this year is time to throw.
Quick pressures are up slightly. Late pressures are up significantly.
Teams are also taking the boot game away, especially rolling to the left.
4hNEWJust to make this point as clearly as possible...
Sam Darnold was leading the NFL in basically every passing metric through 10 weeks last season without a run game.
Saying the difference between last season and this season is the run game is a misdiagnosis.
5hNEWPeople say the difference between the 2025 and 2026 Seahawks offense is they had a run game.
False.
They had one of the least efficient run games in the NFL for 15 weeks.
Sam Darnold had the best numbers of ANY QB through 10 weeks without a run game.
16hNEWVideoI think Leah does some of the best work out there for balancing data with worthy questions. Not sure if she’s on here, but worth a follow on TikTok
17hNEWThere are some Seahawks fans who think Brian Fleury should already be on the hot seat. @EvanHillHB @NathanE11 and I shared our thoughts on the OC, and our predictions for TNF vs Denver on @RealHawkTalk
20hNEWLanded in Denver! Let's do a rapid fire @RealHawkTalk with @EvanHillHB and @NathanE11
Come on over!
Injury report
Reserve lists
Injury report
Reserve lists
At 3:45 PM PT, 90 minutes before kickoff, each team's inactive list replaces its injury report.
Chance of rain by hour, Pacific time.
Seattle's other moves
It's 50 degrees and mostly clear at kickoff in Denver, dropping into the low 40s by the fourth quarter. Rain chance stays in the single digits and the wind holds light all night.
National Weather Service
Weather No weather factor in Denver tonight Who's out for both teams tonight, plus the roster move Seattle reversed a day after making it. Roster moves Seattle rules out two linebackers in its final injury report, and reverses a roster move Seattle is favored despite its own offense's rough last two weeks. Here's what has to go right to win it.Free readers pick 2 a day. Patrons read every section. Five Keys To The GameLocked Five keys to a Seahawks win in Denver Sam Darnold isn't the lone key to this game. Here are the eight players who matter most.Free readers pick 2 a day. Patrons read every section. Key PlayersLocked Protecting Darnold matters, but Seattle's defensive line decides this one too Football Zebras has Brad Rogers on the whistle tonight. One penalty happens in his games far more than it does anywhere else in the league.Free readers pick 2 a day. Patrons read every section. OfficialsLocked Tonight's referee calls offensive pass interference more than anyone in the league Denver has started the same five linemen all season. What they're giving up has changed a lot.Free readers pick 2 a day. Patrons read every section. OpponentLocked Denver's offensive line: the pocket got worse, the run blocking heldnflverse schedules
Series History Seattle's last trip to Denver came down to one final throw Smith-Njigba already shares one Seahawks record. By the time tonight's game ends, he could own two of them outright.Free readers pick 2 a day. Patrons read every section. MilestonesLocked Jaxon Smith-Njigba is one touchdown catch from a Seahawks recordPick a tape and it goes in the VCR.
Grade is yards per route he takes away on a typical rep, against the receivers he covered. Every grade is adjusted for the opponent, and small samples are pulled toward average. Data: Sumer Sports player-by-player charting.
Grade is yards per route he adds on a typical route, against the defenders who covered him. Every grade is adjusted for the opponent, and small samples are pulled toward average. Data: Sumer Sports player-by-player charting.
Grade is how much he raises the pressure rate on a typical rep, in percentage points, against the blockers he faced. Every grade is adjusted for the opponent, and small samples are pulled toward average. Data: Sumer Sports player-by-player charting.
Grade is how much he cuts the pressure rate on a typical rep, in percentage points, against the rushers he faced. Every grade is adjusted for the opponent, and small samples are pulled toward average. Data: Sumer Sports player-by-player charting.
Grade is how much he raises the disruption rate on a typical run, in percentage points, against the blockers he faced. Every grade is adjusted for the opponent, and small samples are pulled toward average. Data: Sumer Sports player-by-player charting.
Grade is how much he cuts the disruption rate on a typical run, in percentage points, against the defenders he faced. Every grade is adjusted for the opponent, and small samples are pulled toward average. Data: Sumer Sports player-by-player charting.
VOR is value over replacement, from the Player Evaluator. 100 is replacement level, and every 30 points is a full step up. See every player →
Franchise cornerstone. Seattle's No. 1 player by VOR this season.
Best at pass breakups + ints per 100 coverage snaps (96th percentile) and run defense net positive plays % (95th percentile). Weakest at missed tackle % (24th percentile).
Full profile in the Player Evaluator →Franchise cornerstone. The Broncos' best player by VOR.
Best at quick pressures per 100 rushes (ftn) (97th percentile) and pressure rate vs blockers faced (pts) (97th percentile). Weakest at run stuff rate (ftn) % (29th percentile).
Full profile in the Player Evaluator →Below replacement. The lowest-rated regular in the Broncos' lineup.
Best at sack rate % (84th percentile) and missed tackle % (70th percentile). Weakest at run stuff rate (ftn) % (2nd percentile).
Full profile in the Player Evaluator →Each spoke is one input to his VOR, scored against his position. The number in each dot is his percentile. The dashed ring is replacement level.
The HB matchup model: each player's opponent-adjusted grade over the reps he's projected to see against the other. Data: HB matchup model on Sumer Sports charting.
Denver filed its final report too. Cornerback Pat Surtain II and safety Talanoa Hufanga are both out with ankle injuries. Riley Moss is also questionable, with a rib injury.
| Team | Player | Pos | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Pat Surtain II | CB | Ankle | Out |
| DEN | Talanoa Hufanga | S | Ankle | Out |
| DEN | Riley Moss | CB | Ribs | Questionable |
| SEA | Chazz Surratt | LB | Calf | Out |
| SEA | Drake Thomas | LB | Ankle | Out |
Zach Allen is the matchup to watch on the offensive line. The model's board has him beating Grey Zabel for a projected 0.4 pressures on the 12 reps they're likely to share.
| Phase | Seahawk | Opponent | Favors | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass rush | Charles Cross (T) | Nik Bonitto (EDGE) | DEN | 0.04 pressures |
| Run game | Demarcus Lawrence (EDGE) | Mike McGlinchey (T) | SEA | 0.03 disruptions |
| Run game | Byron Murphy (IDL) | Ben Powers (G) | SEA | 0.4 disruptions |
| Pass rush | Grey Zabel (G) | Zach Allen (IDL) | DEN | 0.4 pressures |
| Run game | A.J. Barner (TE) | Alex Singleton (LB) | DEN | 0.2 disruptions |
| Run game | Jarran Reed (IDL) | Quinn Meinerz (G) | DEN | 0.3 disruptions |
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Seattle: 6th in rush success rate allowed (35.6%), 3rd in dropback success allowed (40.4%).
Stops both · 9VikingsSeahawksFalconsTexansRavensChiefsBroncosPatriots+1 more
Data: nflverse play-by-play. Open this grid →
Seattle: 22nd in success rate (41.5%), 14th in explosive play rate (9.5%).
Both · 1249ersBillsRavensChiefsLionsJaguarsPatriotsRams+4 more
Data: nflverse play-by-play. Open this grid →
Seattle: 13th in 1st down success rate (45.0%), 30th in 2nd & 8+ escape rate (21.6%).
Ahead of the chains · 949ersChiefsRavensPanthersBillsLionsCowboysPatriots+1 more
Data: Sumer Sports charting. Open this grid →
Seattle: 24th in EPA per play (−0.073), 2nd in EPA per play allowed (−0.137).
Good at both · 749ersJaguarsChiefsRamsRavensBengalsTexans
Data: nflverse play-by-play. Open this grid →
Seattle: 14th in explosive play rate (9.5%), 2nd in explosive play rate allowed (6.7%).
Hit big, allow little · 1049ersJaguarsPatriotsFalconsSeahawksChiefsPanthersTexans+2 more
Data: nflverse play-by-play. Open this grid →
Seattle: 16th in dropback EPA (+0.087), 30th in rush EPA per play (−0.218).
Both work · 9BillsRavensChiefs49ersJaguarsLionsCowboysRams+1 more
Data: nflverse play-by-play. Open this grid →
Seattle: 4th in pressure rate (37.5%), 2nd in 20+ yard pass rate allowed (4.8%).
Get home, allow nothing deep · 9SeahawksVikingsChiefsRamsRaidersBroncosPanthersFalcons+1 more
Data: nflverse play-by-play · FTN charting. Open this grid →
Seattle: 6th in rush success rate allowed (35.6%), 3rd in dropback success allowed (40.4%).
Stops both · 9VikingsSeahawksFalconsTexansRavensChiefsBroncosPatriots+1 more
Data: nflverse play-by-play. Open this grid →
The dashed line is the NFL average that week. Green beat it, orange didn't.
Open the Team Evaluator →Biggest climb: Packers ▲10 to 10th
Seattle trails the 49ers by 1.5 points of HB rating, 2nd in the NFL. Ranks are in the NFL.
The biggest 2026 cap hits, of $294.6M on 63 players.
Most value over replacement per $1M of 2026 cap.
23 Seahawks are in the last year of their deals, $61.9M of this year's cap. Best by VOR first.
How the Seattle Seahawks silenced all doubts and became Super Bowl LX champions.
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Follow @hawkblogger →Excited to see WR Irv Charles get his first snaps this season on special teams for the Seahawks. He was elevated from the practice squad. Seattle also elevated LB Jimmy Ciarlo, who will likely sub for injured Chazz Surratt on special teams.
Celebrating throwbacks on today
There is a lot of bad analysis out there about what is going on with the Seahawks offense. @qdiggs6 and I attacked it from both angles: data and strategy. Great insights into the boot game from Q.
We get to check in with Seahawks Legend @qdiggs6 ahead of this @TNFPrimeVision matchup between the Seahawks and Broncos. Come on over!
The real difference between when Darnold was lighting the league up last year and where he is this year is time to throw. Quick pressures are up slightly. Late pressures are up significantly. Teams are also taking the boot game away, especially rolling to the left.
Just to make this point as clearly as possible... Sam Darnold was leading the NFL in basically every passing metric through 10 weeks last season without a run game. Saying the difference between last season and this season is the run game is a misdiagnosis.
People say the difference between the 2025 and 2026 Seahawks offense is they had a run game. False. They had one of the least efficient run games in the NFL for 15 weeks. Sam Darnold had the best numbers of ANY QB through 10 weeks without a run game.
I think Leah does some of the best work out there for balancing data with worthy questions. Not sure if she’s on here, but worth a follow on TikTok
There are some Seahawks fans who think Brian Fleury should already be on the hot seat. @EvanHillHB @NathanE11 and I shared our thoughts on the OC, and our predictions for TNF vs Denver on @RealHawkTalk