HawkBlogger

All Seahawks. All The Time.
Join on Patreon
Latest updates
1 / 6
Next · Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25 Seahawks3-3#4 vs Chiefs5-0#2 HB modelSEA by 0.9
Biggest moves this week
  1. 5Patriots from #9▲ 4+2.7
  2. 24Saints from #28▲ 4−2.6
  3. 8Ravens from #5▼ 3+2.2
  4. 9Rams from #6▼ 3+2.1
Also today
Points per game Seattle has beaten the Vegas line by, by days to prepare, Macdonald era
−5051015204 days6-8 days10+ days−2.7+2.1+15.2

nflverse schedules and play-by-play

Seahawks Give Macdonald extra rest, and Seattle crushes the Vegas line
Smith-Njigba's receiving yards by week, 2026
05010015020012345612215512876102134

nflverse play-by-play

Seahawks Jaxon Smith-Njigba needs 103 yards Sunday to set his own franchise mark
Kansas City's defense ranks in the top five in the league in EPA per play. Here's where that shows up against Seattle, where it doesn't, and what Kansas City hasn't seen from this offense all year.Free readers pick 2 a day. Patrons read every section. ChiefsLocked Kansas City's defense has the edges. Seattle's offense has a few of its own. Kansas City brings four pass rushers who line up in different spots than you'd expect against Seattle's line. Here's who faces whom, and where the matchup actually favors Seattle.Free readers pick 2 a day. Patrons read every section. ChiefsLocked Kansas City's best pass rusher lines up across from Seattle's best tackle A future Hall of Famer is one slant route from passing another Hall of Famer on the all-time list.Free readers pick 2 a day. Patrons read every section. This week's opponentLocked Travis Kelce is 3 yards from cracking the all-time top 12 Kansas City spent a first-round pick on a defensive tackle. Six games in, the tape and the numbers agree on something the Chiefs would rather not hear.Free readers pick 2 a day. Patrons read every section. This week's opponentLocked Peter Woods was a first-round pick. He grades in the 7th percentile.
Today's insight · Read today's issue

The Show

Presented by
All episodes →
1:26:37
Latest episode · Tue, Oct 20 · 13.4K views

Fix It: Hasselbeck Weighs In

NOTE: part of the interview with Matt was cut off at around 24 mins in. You can find the missing clip of the interview on the channel here: https://youtu.be/GA63gKVaMdY I have…

Listen to this episodeDaily Seahawks Podcast
Ad-free on Patreon Earlier this week
  • NFC Chaos: What Happens Next?1:23
  • Solving Abe & Zabel: A Plan To Cut Pressure1:02
  • SEAHAWKS SATURDAY: Time for Cope or Hope?0:59
Brought to you by Local team. Local coverage.go.pemco.com/hawkblogger

This Week in the Numbers

HB Analytics →

Top 20 cornerbacks

Coverage · 2026 through Week 6
  1. 1D.J. Turner CIN · CB+0.65
  2. 2Denzel Ward CLE · CB+0.52
  3. 3Charvarius Ward IND · CB+0.39
  4. 4Renardo Green SF · CB+0.36
  5. 5Zyon McCollum TB · CB+0.36
  6. 6Eric Stokes LV · CB+0.35
  7. 7Greg Newsome NYG · CB+0.34
  8. 8Deommodore Lenoir SF · CB+0.34
  9. 9Cooper DeJean PHI · CB+0.33
  10. 10Azareye'h Thomas NYJ · CB+0.31
  11. 11Quinyon Mitchell PHI · CB+0.28
  12. 12Dax Hill CIN · CB+0.27
  13. 13Tariq Woolen PHI · CB+0.23
  14. 14Nate Wiggins BAL · CB+0.23
  15. 15Nohl Williams KC · CB+0.22
  16. 16Christian Benford BUF · CB+0.18
  17. 17Josh Jobe SEA · CB+0.15
  18. 18Derek Stingley HOU · CB+0.15
  19. 19Ja'Quan McMillian DEN · CB+0.09
  20. 20Ahmad Gardner IND · CB+0.07

Grade is yards per route he takes away on a typical rep, against the receivers he covered. Every grade is adjusted for the opponent, and small samples are pulled toward average. Data: Sumer Sports player-by-player charting.

The Playoff Race

Explore every team →

Seahawks' playoff odds

61%to make the playoffs
Win the West
4%
1 seed
2%
Super Bowl
8%
1 seed 2%Seeds 2-4 3%Seeds 5-7 57%Out 39%

Projected NFC field

Each division's favorite, then the three best wild card bets. Bars are playoff odds. A 4 is a team's seed if the season ended today.

Division favorites

  1. 49ers6-0299%
  2. Vikings5-0194%
  3. Panthers3-2376%
  4. Giants3-2-1448%

Wild cards

  1. Packers4-2565%
  2. Lions3-2763%
  3. Seahawks3-361%

In the hunt

  1. Bears4-2657%
  2. Rams2-432%
  3. Cowboys2-430%

Rooting interests

The other teams' games that matter most to the Seahawks' playoff odds the rest of the way.

Week 14 · Sun, Dec 13 Root for the 49ers vs Rams +4.3−0.1 SB
Week 7 · Thu, Oct 22 Root for the Patriots at Bears +3.6+0.4 SB
Week 14 · Sun, Dec 13 Root for the Dolphins vs Bears +3.5+0.4 SB
Week 8 · Thu, Oct 29 Root for the Panthers at Packers +3.2+0.4 SB
Every game, every team →

Points of playoff odds, from 60,000 simulated seasons with the NFL's full tiebreakers. SB is the same game's worth to Seattle's Super Bowl odds. Updated 5h ago.

Insight of the Day

HB Daily →
TodayTue, Oct 20 · Seahawks

Give Macdonald extra rest, and Seattle crushes the Vegas line

That is not just rest. Every NFL team with 10 or more days to prepare from 2015 to 2025 beat the line by about 0.3 points a game, barely anything. Seattle's +15.2 points a game is something else: the coach, a small sample, or both.

Every NFL team vs the Vegas line with 10 or more days to prepare, 2015-2025
RestTeam-gamesAvg marginMargin vs lineCover rate
10+ days722+0.9+0.351.4%
Read today's issue
YesterdayMon, Oct 19 · Seahawks

Both men are behind the league this year

Abraham Lucas and Grey Zabel are both allowing more pressure than the league average at their spots this year. Lucas allowed pressure at 0.68 times the league tackle rate in 2025. This year it's 1.26 times, and his Value Over Replacement, where 100 is replacement level, fell from 127.2, 30th of 96 regular tackles, to 97.2, 50th of 69, below replacement level. Zabel went from 0.90 times the league guard rate to 1.17. His VOR fell from 137.7, 18th of 96 guards, to 104.4, 45th of 75.

Abraham Lucas and Grey Zabel in pass protection
PlayerSeasonPressure rateVORVOR rank
Abraham Lucas20252.8%127.230 of 96
Abraham Lucas20267.2%97.250 of 69
Grey Zabel20253.4%137.718 of 96
Grey Zabel20265.9%104.445 of 75
Read yesterday's issue
Get HB Daily freeThe last game, the next one, and the numbers that explain both. In your inbox every morning.

Seahawks Gear

Shop all gear →
Julian LoveFan favorite

HawkBlogger earns a commission when you buy through these links. It helps keep the show going.

HB Analytics

All tools →
Team Grid of the Day · TodayBuild your own grid →

How each offense moves the ball

DROPBACK EPA · BETTER →RUSH EPA PER PLAY · BETTER →NFL medianArizona Cardinals: +0.016 (20th), −0.057 (19th)Atlanta Falcons: −0.165 (29th), +0.023 (7th)Baltimore Ravens: +0.219 (5th), +0.013 (8th)Buffalo Bills: +0.340 (2nd), +0.156 (1st)Carolina Panthers: +0.209 (6th), +0.003 (11th)Chicago Bears: +0.090 (15th), −0.014 (13th)Cincinnati Bengals: +0.147 (11th), −0.048 (18th)Cleveland Browns: +0.007 (21st), −0.153 (28th)Dallas Cowboys: +0.123 (12th), −0.020 (14th)Denver Broncos: −0.113 (25th), −0.093 (22nd)Detroit Lions: +0.283 (3rd), −0.005 (12th)Green Bay Packers: +0.112 (13th), −0.265 (32nd)Houston Texans: +0.149 (10th), −0.099 (23rd)Indianapolis Colts: −0.144 (28th), +0.056 (4th)Jacksonville Jaguars: +0.275 (4th), +0.011 (9th)Kansas City Chiefs: +0.187 (7th), +0.134 (2nd)Los Angeles Rams: +0.090 (14th), −0.020 (15th)Los Angeles Chargers: −0.241 (32nd), −0.174 (29th)Las Vegas Raiders: +0.171 (9th), −0.233 (31st)Miami Dolphins: −0.128 (26th), +0.005 (10th)Minnesota Vikings: −0.040 (23rd), −0.114 (25th)New England Patriots: +0.178 (8th), −0.045 (17th)New Orleans Saints: −0.012 (22nd), −0.081 (21st)New York Giants: +0.065 (16th), −0.113 (24th)New York Jets: +0.060 (18th), −0.140 (26th)Philadelphia Eagles: −0.103 (24th), −0.147 (27th)Pittsburgh Steelers: −0.132 (27th), +0.039 (5th)San Francisco 49ers: +0.359 (1st), +0.092 (3rd)Tampa Bay Buccaneers: −0.181 (30th), +0.028 (6th)Tennessee Titans: −0.182 (31st), −0.078 (20th)Washington Commanders: +0.060 (17th), −0.033 (16th)Seattle Seahawks: +0.038 (19th), −0.185 (30th)Both workRun firstAir it outStuck
DROPBACK EPA · BETTER →RUSH EPA PER PLAY · BETTER →NFL medianArizona Cardinals: +0.016 (20th), −0.057 (19th)Atlanta Falcons: −0.165 (29th), +0.023 (7th)Baltimore Ravens: +0.219 (5th), +0.013 (8th)Buffalo Bills: +0.340 (2nd), +0.156 (1st)Carolina Panthers: +0.209 (6th), +0.003 (11th)Chicago Bears: +0.090 (15th), −0.014 (13th)Cincinnati Bengals: +0.147 (11th), −0.048 (18th)Cleveland Browns: +0.007 (21st), −0.153 (28th)Dallas Cowboys: +0.123 (12th), −0.020 (14th)Denver Broncos: −0.113 (25th), −0.093 (22nd)Detroit Lions: +0.283 (3rd), −0.005 (12th)Green Bay Packers: +0.112 (13th), −0.265 (32nd)Houston Texans: +0.149 (10th), −0.099 (23rd)Indianapolis Colts: −0.144 (28th), +0.056 (4th)Jacksonville Jaguars: +0.275 (4th), +0.011 (9th)Kansas City Chiefs: +0.187 (7th), +0.134 (2nd)Los Angeles Rams: +0.090 (14th), −0.020 (15th)Los Angeles Chargers: −0.241 (32nd), −0.174 (29th)Las Vegas Raiders: +0.171 (9th), −0.233 (31st)Miami Dolphins: −0.128 (26th), +0.005 (10th)Minnesota Vikings: −0.040 (23rd), −0.114 (25th)New England Patriots: +0.178 (8th), −0.045 (17th)New Orleans Saints: −0.012 (22nd), −0.081 (21st)New York Giants: +0.065 (16th), −0.113 (24th)New York Jets: +0.060 (18th), −0.140 (26th)Philadelphia Eagles: −0.103 (24th), −0.147 (27th)Pittsburgh Steelers: −0.132 (27th), +0.039 (5th)San Francisco 49ers: +0.359 (1st), +0.092 (3rd)Tampa Bay Buccaneers: −0.181 (30th), +0.028 (6th)Tennessee Titans: −0.182 (31st), −0.078 (20th)Washington Commanders: +0.060 (17th), −0.033 (16th)Seattle Seahawks: +0.038 (19th), −0.185 (30th)Both workRun firstAir it outStuck

Seattle: 19th in dropback EPA (+0.038), 30th in rush EPA per play (−0.185).

Both work · 10Bills49ersChiefsJaguarsRavensLionsPanthersCowboys+2 more

Data: nflverse play-by-play. Open this grid →

This week
Team Evaluator · last 4 games

Seattle's trends

Offense · 24ththis season
−0.60−0.40−0.20−0.00+0.20−0.05Week 3: at Washington CommandersWk 3−0.09Week 4: vs. Los Angeles ChargersWk 4−0.43Week 5: vs. San Francisco 49ersWk 5−0.10Week 6: at Denver BroncosWk 6
Defense · 2ndlower is better
−0.20−0.100.00+0.10−0.08Week 3: at Washington CommandersWk 3−0.09Week 4: vs. Los Angeles ChargersWk 4−0.14Week 5: vs. San Francisco 49ersWk 5−0.14Week 6: at Denver BroncosWk 6

The dashed line is the NFL average that week. Green beat it, orange didn't.

Open the Team Evaluator →
Updated 1h ago

Power Rankings

See all 32 →
Player Evaluator

Seahawks by VOR

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR170 VOR · 28th in NFL
Julian LoveS167 VOR · 33rd in NFL
Leonard WilliamsIDL163 VOR · 44th in NFL
Byron MurphyIDL158 VOR · 61st in NFL
All 849 regulars →
Seahawks Cap Outlook · 2026

Where the money goes

Drew LockQB$2.8M · 139 VOR
Uchenna NwosuEDGE$20.0M · 119 VOR
Rodney ThomasS$1.0M · 115 VOR
George HolaniRB$1.1M · 100 VOR
Ty OkadaS$1.1M · 97 VOR

21 Seahawks are in the last year of their deals, $59.8M of this year's cap. Best by VOR first.

Open →
XLatest from BrianFollow on X
Brian Nemhauser@hawkblogger · 1h

Ted is going to join us tomorrow to discuss this matchup with the Chiefs, and what he found in his study of Sam Darnold and the Seahawks offense.

Brian Nemhauser@hawkblogger · 6h

Macdonald and Flores get to the same result in different ways.

Brian Nemhauser@hawkblogger · 7h

I have pulled together all the research I have done about what ails the Seahawks offense, and then prioritized steps that can help based on how many points they would add back. @Hasselbeck joins for his weekly visit to help call BS or hell yes! 8AM PT

Brian Nemhauser@hawkblogger · 9h

Seahawks fans owe a debt of gratitude to Chris Ballard for letting Byron Murphy II fall to them in the draft.

Brian Nemhauser@hawkblogger · 21h

Malik Mustapha gets away with his third uncalled personal foul for helmet-to-helmet. Was fined for one of the missed calls vs Seattle.

Brian Nemhauser@hawkblogger · 22h

I have never liked the playoff and Super Bowl odds pages, so I built my own. Pick any team. See their odds to make the playoffs or reach the Super Bowl. Use straight odds, or incorporate my power rankings and SB odd data. See the most consequential games for your team.

Brian Nemhauser@hawkblogger · 22h

Mike Macdonald did not see the signing of the new fullback to the practice squad as a desire to add a more physical fullback to the roster.

Brian Nemhauser@hawkblogger · 22h

"I think he's been kind of a source of strength for the guys, rather than a guy who has to deal with an injury. I'm just really impressed." Mike Macdonald on how Anthony Bradford handled his time on IR

Brian Nemhauser@hawkblogger · 22h

Will Zach Charbonnet play this week? "Zach is gonna have a feel week's worth of reps, so that's exciting. And there's a possibility that you could see him on Sunday in some capacity."

More on X →
New York Times bestseller

We Did Not Care

How the Seattle Seahawks silenced all doubts and became Super Bowl LX champions.

#5 NYT bestseller#1 Amazon hot new release
Get the book
Now live

HB Daily

The best daily dose of Seahawks and NFL insights, delivered to your inbox.

One email address, nothing else. Unsubscribe any time.

Live & Tickets

All events →