A win over Kansas City would put Seattle's playoff odds near two in three.

A win over Kansas City would put Seattle's playoff odds near two in three.

Seattle is 3-3, second in the NFC West behind an unbeaten San Francisco team. Kansas City comes in Sunday as a 3-point underdog, but the game is still the biggest single swing on the board this weekend. A win puts Seattle's playoff odds at 67.1%, up from 59.9% now. A loss drops them to 49.7%. The division is still a long shot either way, but it's more than double with a win than with a loss, 6.2% against 2.7%. These are from 10,000 simulated seasons, with the NFL's full tiebreakers.

HB playoff odds engine. 10,000 simulated seasons on the finals before 2026-10-23. Win chances: moneylines with the margin taken out, else the spread, else team strength from our power rankings blended with the Super Bowl betting market. Super Bowl odds are Seattle's chance to win the NFC: each season plays the NFC playoffs with that same team strength. Full NFL tiebreakers; a simulated season has no scores, so a tie past strength of schedule is a coin toss.

Each pick below is the result that helps Seattle's playoff odds most. Los Angeles and Arizona both play AFC teams, and a loss by either one helps Seattle's playoff odds without costing anything in the West. San Francisco is the one game where you have to choose.

HB playoff odds engine. 10,000 simulated seasons on the finals before 2026-10-23. Win chances: moneylines with the margin taken out, else the spread, else team strength from our power rankings blended with the Super Bowl betting market. Super Bowl odds are Seattle's chance to win the NFC: each season plays the NFC playoffs with that same team strength. Full NFL tiebreakers; a simulated season has no scores, so a tie past strength of schedule is a coin toss.

Los Angeles is the first division game. Las Vegas has moved from a 7.5-point underdog to 3.5, and a Raiders win is worth a 2.9-point swing in Seattle's playoff odds. Los Angeles' Nate Landman (92% of defensive snaps) and Trent McDuffie (81%) both sat out Wednesday's practice, a concussion and a groin injury. Las Vegas has bumps of its own: Brock Bowers (55% of offensive snaps) was limited with a hamstring and calf injury, and both Kolton Miller (100% of offensive snaps, tackle) and Quay Walker (99.7% of defensive snaps, linebacker) were limited Wednesday too.

San Francisco is 6-0, and the 49ers are favored by 2.5 in Atlanta, down from 4.5 at the open. If you care more about making the playoffs, root for the 49ers. Atlanta is 2-4, one game behind Seattle, and a 49ers win is worth 1.8 points of playoff odds. If you care more about the division, root for the Falcons. A 49ers loss nearly doubles Seattle's shot at the NFC West, from 3.4% to 6.5%. Both sides are banged up. San Francisco's Deebo Samuel Sr. (48% of offensive snaps, hamstring), Nick Bosa (18%, knee and calf) and Mike Evans (56%, ribs and Achilles) all sat out Wednesday and Thursday. Atlanta's Billy Bowman Jr. (31% of defensive snaps) did too, with a hamstring injury, and A.J. Terrell (16%) was limited both days with a groin injury.

Minnesota is the NFC's only other unbeaten team, 5-0, and a Colts win would hand the Vikings their first loss, worth a 0.9-point bump to Seattle's playoff odds. Indianapolis is a big underdog, Minnesota -6.5 after opening at -3. Justin Jefferson (56% of Minnesota's offensive snaps) was limited Wednesday with an ankle injury and went full Thursday. Indianapolis has more banged up: Sauce Gardner (91% of defensive snaps) and Tyler Warren (73% of offensive snaps) both sat out practice both days, and Jonathan Taylor (82%) was limited Wednesday before going full Thursday.

New Orleans is 2-4, a game behind Seattle, and a fifth loss to Pittsburgh still helps Seattle's playoff odds by six tenths of a point. Pittsburgh is a 3.5-point favorite, up from 2.5 at the open. T.J. Watt (69% of Pittsburgh's defensive snaps) sat out Wednesday and was limited Thursday with a calf injury, and Jalen Ramsey, who plays almost every defensive snap, followed the same path with a wrist injury. New Orleans' Alvin Kamara (25% of offensive snaps) was limited both days with a back injury.

Arizona is the third West rival on the board, 2-4. Root for Denver: a Broncos win is worth 0.6 points of playoff odds. The Broncos are favored by 4.5, down from 7.5 at the open. Arizona's Budda Baker, who plays nearly every defensive snap, sat out Wednesday with a groin injury and illness. Denver's Jaylen Waddle (66% of offensive snaps) was limited with a chest injury, and Pat Surtain II (56% of defensive snaps) was limited with an ankle injury.

New York is 3-2-1, one spot ahead of Seattle, and a Texans win would pull the Giants back to .500. Houston is already a big favorite, -10.5 after opening at -5.5. New York's Tremaine Edmunds, who plays every defensive snap, sat out both practice days with a shoulder injury, and Andrew Thomas (95% of offensive snaps) sat out Wednesday before working limited Thursday with a groin injury. Houston's David Montgomery (40% of offensive snaps) sat out both days with a groin injury of his own.

Three more barely move the needle: Green Bay at Detroit (root for the Packers, a 0.2-point swing), Dallas at Philadelphia Monday night (root for the Eagles, 0.1 points) and Tampa Bay at Carolina (root for the Buccaneers, essentially nothing).

Kansas City is 5-0. The margins say something closer.

Kansas City is 5-0. Seattle is 3-3. On paper, Sunday night looks lopsided.

The efficiency numbers say otherwise. Seattle's point differential ranks 7th in the NFL, +4.3 a game, not far off Kansas City's 1st at +11.4. Total DVOA, which adjusts for the quality of opponents each team has faced, has Kansas City 2nd and Seattle 10th.

Both records have tight games behind them. Two of Kansas City's five wins came by three points, 33-30 over Indianapolis and 30-27 at Las Vegas, and it held the Chargers to six points in Week 6. Seattle's three losses have all come by three points or fewer: 33-31 at Washington, 32-29 against San Francisco and 17-14 at Denver.

Special teams is one place the matchup clearly tilts toward Seattle. Seattle ranks 14th in special teams DVOA, Kansas City 26th.

nflverse, FTN, Sumer Sports

Seattle's punting unit ranks 1st in the league against Kansas City's punt return, and its punt return ranks 5th against Kansas City's punting. The weak spots are in the kicking game: Seattle's kickoffs rank 25th against Kansas City's kick return, and Seattle's own kick return ranks 32nd against Kansas City's kickoffs.

Where Kansas City's defense gives: play action against Cover 3

Kansas City's defense plays man coverage often, and plays it well. Its most-used coverage is zone, and there, play action is a problem.

Cover 3 is Kansas City's most-used coverage this season, 60 dropbacks, 29.9% of the total. Kansas City allows +0.11 EPA per dropback there, 24th of 32 defenses, below average for a defense this good.

Sumer charting, 2026 regular season, garbage time out

The difference is play action. With it, Kansas City has allowed +0.58 EPA per dropback in Cover 3, a 61.9% success rate and 11.7 yards per dropback, with four gains of 20 yards or more on 21 dropbacks. Without it: -0.15 EPA, a 35.9% success rate, 5.6 yards. Same coverage, opposite results. That +0.58 ranks 30th of 32 defenses against play action out of Cover 3.

Sumer charting, 2026 regular season, garbage time out

Sumer charting, 2026 regular season, garbage time out

Play action is also taking away Kansas City's pass rush. The Chiefs pressure 66.7% of Cover 3 dropbacks without a fake handoff. With one, that falls to 38.1%. The fake buys time, and the seams open behind the linebackers: Kansas City has given up a 42-yard completion and a 44-yard completion in the same game at Miami, and a 27-yard gain at Las Vegas, all off play action out of Cover 3.

Seattle already calls play action in exactly that spot. Against Cover 3, it has used play action on 48.9% of its 47 dropbacks, with an EPA of +0.09 when it does, 13th in the league, against -0.04 when it doesn't, 19th.

Twenty-one dropbacks is a small sample for one defense in one matchup, but the shape of the mismatch is there.

Seattle's favorite run meets one of the league's best defenses against it

Seattle leans on one run more than almost any team in the league. Outside zone is 70 of its 158 designed runs this season, 44.3%, the third-highest share in the NFL. It's also been Seattle's least effective concept: -0.34 EPA per run, 29th of 32, at 3.5 yards a carry.

Kansas City is one of the best defenses in the league against it. On 39 outside zone runs this season, the Chiefs have allowed -0.26 EPA per run, 7th of 32, at 2.5 yards a carry. Only 25.6% of those runs have gained positive EPA. The NFL average on outside zone is -0.12 EPA per run.

Sumer charting, 2026 regular season, garbage time out

It isn't one good game. Miami ran it 10 times for 1.9 yards a carry, the Chargers 5 times for 1.8. Indianapolis did best, 13 runs at roughly zero EPA. The longest outside zone run allowed by Kansas City all season is 10 yards.

Sumer charting, 2026 regular season, garbage time out

Sumer charting, 2026 regular season, garbage time out

It's also the concept Kansas City has seen most by a wide margin, 39 outside zone runs against 20 pull-lead runs, the next-most, and the Chiefs have handled that volume well: -0.26 EPA per run.

This is the wrong week for Seattle to lean on outside zone. The numbers don't offer a fix, just a question: how much of it Seattle still calls.

Are defenses blitzing Seattle under center more this year?

Defenses have blitzed 31 of Seattle's 62 under-center dropbacks this year, 50.0%. That's well above where it sat last year: 36.5% for the full season, 34.5% over these same six weeks. On play action out of that formation, the rate climbed too, 49.1% of 53 dropbacks against 33.9% a year ago.

Look past Seattle, though, and the whole league moved the same way. The rest of the NFL blitzed under-center dropbacks 34.4% of the time last year and 49.0% this year. Seattle has sat just a hair above the league both seasons, never the target. Shotgun barely moved league-wide, 28.3% to 27.1%, so the rise is strictly an under-center thing, not a Seattle thing.

FTN charting and nflverse play-by-play, regular season

What did change is Seattle's own under-center snaps. It drops back from under center less than it used to, 28.4% of dropbacks against 32.8% last year, and almost every one of those plays starts with a play-action fake now, 85.5%, up from 64.1%. Kansas City will see a heavy dose of it in Week 7.

FTN charting and nflverse play-by-play, regular season

The game-by-game numbers bounce around, as four-to-sixteen-play samples do. Washington blitzed 10 of Seattle's 16 under-center dropbacks in Week 3, the most of any game this season; last year it was Pittsburgh, 11 of 13 in Week 2. Neither is a trend on its own.

FTN charting and nflverse play-by-play, regular season. 2026 is Weeks 1-6. A blitz means at least one extra rusher.

So defenses aren't singling out Seattle under center. They blitz it about as often as they blitz anyone's. What's different is what Seattle does there now: fake a handoff almost every time.

Kirk Cousins is on pace for the best touchdown start by a Las Vegas quarterback since 1999

Seattle doesn't see Las Vegas until Week 10, but the quarterback it will face there is in the middle of one of the better stretches of his career.

Kirk Cousins has thrown 14 touchdown passes through six games for the 3-3 Raiders. Two more Sunday against the Rams would give him the most through seven games of a season by a Las Vegas player since 1999. The current mark belongs to Rich Gannon, who threw 15 in the first seven games of 2002.

Alim McNeill's second downs are a problem for quarterbacks

Detroit is 3-2 and squarely in the NFC race, and its defensive front has one player putting up an outlier of a second-down split.

Alim McNeill has 6 quarterback hits on second-down pass rushes this season. The average qualifying interior lineman has 0.5. McNeill's rate in that split is 6.6 standard deviations above the league average.

The number isn't an isolated split. McNeill has 3.5 sacks, 8 quarterback hits overall and 4 tackles for loss through five games.

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