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AJ Barner is 11 of 12 on short-yardage carries, and he didn't get one at Washington.
Every one of his 12 career carries has come on 3rd or 4th and 1, and he's converted 11 of them with two touchdowns. The Chargers, 0-3, visit Lumen Field Sunday.
- Why isn't AJ Barner getting the short-yardage carries?
- Special teams, still a strength, for different reasons
- Shaheed isn't slower. Seattle just isn't using his speed.
- Seattle's play action is still the league's best
- Seattle's motion finally worked
- Did 11 personnel get better at Washington?
- Seattle's pass rush gets home fast
- The Chargers, 0-3, visit Lumen Field
- The Chargers lean on 21 personnel more than almost anyone
- The Chargers arrive near the bottom of the league on offense
Why isn't AJ Barner getting the short-yardage carries?
Barner has 12 career carries for 17 yards, a number that looks empty by itself. Every one of them came on a direct snap on 3rd or 4th and 1. He's converted 11 of 12, with two touchdowns. Seattle's running backs haven't had the same luck there: Emanuel Wilson is 0 for 3 on 3rd- and 4th-and-1 runs this season.
| Runner | Carries | Yards | Converted | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barner, career | 12 | 17 | 11 | 2 |
| Wilson, 2026 | 3 | −1 | 0 | 0 |
nflverse
Around the league in 2025, non-QB runs on 3rd- or 4th-and-1 converted 69.1% of the time. QB runs converted 81.1%. Barner's rate, even in this small sample, is ahead of both.
| Runner | Runs | Converted | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non-QB runs | 676 | 467 | 69.1% |
| QB runs | 265 | 215 | 81.1% |
nflverse
Seattle's running backs have 12 carries from the goal line this season for 7 yards and no touchdowns. On the play right after Wilson's second stuff at the 1 in Week 2, Barner scored on a direct snap.
| Split | Carries | Yards | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle RBs, goal to go | 12 | 7 | 0 |
nflverse
At Washington, Barner had no carries. On the drive that died at the Washington 2, Seattle threw three straight incompletions, two of them to Barner, on 2nd and 4th down.
| Down | Yardline | Target | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | WAS 2 | Barner | incomplete |
| 3 | WAS 2 | Smith-Njigba | incomplete |
| 4 | WAS 2 | Barner | incomplete |
nflverse
He still caught 5 of 9 targets for 69 yards Sunday.
| Targets | Catches | Yards |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | 5 | 69 |
nflverse
Special teams, still a strength, for different reasons
Seattle's special teams were worth +58.1 EPA above league average last season, 1st by a wide margin. Three games into this season it's +8.5, 4th. Still a top-five unit, just not the same one.
| Season | EPA above average | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 58.1 | 1 |
| 2026 | 8.5 | 4 |
nflverse
nflverse
The kickoff coverage unit flipped hardest. It was the best in the league last season. This season it's below average, 23rd. Punt coverage flipped the other way: a weak spot last season, and it hasn't allowed a single return yard this season.
| Phase | 2025 EPA | rk | 2026 EPA | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kickoff coverage | 27.1 | 1 | −1.6 | 23 |
| Kick return | 12.4 | 4 | 2.1 | 6 |
| Punting | −0.0 | 19 | 1.0 | 11 |
| Punt return | 13.2 | 4 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Field goals, PATs | 5.4 | 13 | 2.0 | 9 |
nflverse
Opponents are averaging 30.1 yards a kickoff return against Seattle this season, 30th in the league, after ranking 4th at 24.0 last season. On punts it's the opposite: opponents returned 19 of Seattle's punts for 15.5 yards a return last season, 31st in the league. This season, on 11 punts, they haven't returned one.
| Season | Avg allowed | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24.0 | 4 |
| 2026 | 30.1 | 30 |
nflverse
| Season | Punts | Returns allowed | Avg allowed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 52 | 19 | 15.5 |
| 2026 | 11 | 0 |
nflverse
The kicking game has been steady. Jason Myers is 4 for 4 this season, including a 57-yarder, after going 41 of 48 last season with 9 of 12 from 50 yards or more.
| Season | Attempts | Made | Pct | 50+ made |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 48 | 41 | 85.4% | 9 of 12 |
| 2026 | 4 | 4 | 100.0% | incl. a 57-yarder |
nflverse
nflverse
Shaheed isn't slower. Seattle just isn't using his speed.
Is Shaheed as fast as he was last year? On his own plays, no. He's topped 20 miles per hour just once this season, against nine times in 18 games last season, and his average game-top speed is down from 20.01 to 19.67.
| Season | Games | Avg game top | Season high | Games 20+ mph |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18 | 20.01 | 21.44 | 9 |
| 2026 | 3 | 19.67 | 20.42 | 1 |
Sumer Sports
That one time came when it mattered. Medrano ran Darnold's interception back for a touchdown with 4:09 left in the fourth quarter, and Shaheed's fastest play of the season, 20.42 miles per hour, came chasing him down. That's a speed he reached in 7 of his 18 games last season. On every other play this season, his fastest is 19.31, from Week 1.
| Quarter | Clock | Down | To go | Top speed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4:09 | 2 | 15 | 20.4 |
Sumer Sports
So the speed hasn't gone anywhere. Seattle just isn't asking for it. His go routes have fallen every year: 28.3% of his routes in 2023, 25.2% in 2024, 20.0% in 2025, 14.5% this season.
| Season | Routes | Go routes | Go rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2,023 | 414 | 117 | 28.3% |
| 2,024 | 163 | 41 | 25.2% |
| 2,025 | 455 | 91 | 20.0% |
| 2,026 | 62 | 9 | 14.5% |
Sumer Sports
The deep shots have followed it down. He caught seven passes of 40-plus yards in 2023, three in 2024, one in 2025, and none this season. His deep targets caught: 12 of 24 in 2023, 3 of 16 in 2024, 5 of 19 in 2025, 0 of 1 this season.
| Season | 40+ yard catches | Deep catches | Deep targets |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2,023 | 7 | 12 | 24 |
| 2,024 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 2,025 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 2,026 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
nflverse
Through three games he has 6 catches for 53 yards on 12 targets.
| Targets | Catches | Yards |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 6 | 53 |
nflverse
Washington was one of the hardest WR2 matchups he could have drawn. Entering the game, Washington ranked 6th in DVOA allowed to the WR2 slot, at -48.8%. The tough matchup didn't turn into production.
| Stat | Washington |
|---|---|
| DVOA allowed to WR2 | 6th, -48.8% |
FTN, through Week 2
Shaheed is paid like a $17 million receiver. Of the 32 receivers paid at least that much who have played this season, he ranks 29th in receiving yards through three weeks. Last season, over a full year, he ranked 25th of the same group.
Over The Cap, nflverse
Seattle's play action is still the league's best
Through three weeks, Seattle's play-action passing still leads the NFL: +0.545 EPA per dropback on 35 play-action dropbacks. The league average is +0.142.
| Team | Plays | EPA per dropback |
|---|---|---|
| SEA | 35 | +0.545 |
| PIT | 29 | +0.431 |
| SF | 25 | +0.431 |
| NYJ | 25 | +0.422 |
| BAL | 30 | +0.386 |
FTN, nflverse
It came back to earth at Washington. Seattle threw play action on 16 pass attempts, completed 12, for +0.125 EPA per dropback. That's still positive, and nowhere near the pace of the first two weeks.
| Weeks | Attempts | Complete | EPA per dropback |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-2 | 17 | 17 | +0.899 |
| Week 3 | 16 | 12 | +0.125 |
FTN, nflverse
Drew Lock was perfect off play action in his two starts, 17 of 17 for +0.899 EPA per dropback. Sam Darnold is 12 of 16 for +0.119 EPA per dropback across his two games back. Play action still works with Darnold at quarterback. It just isn't the same weapon yet.
| Passer | Attempts | Complete | EPA per dropback |
|---|---|---|---|
| D. Lock | 17 | 17 | +0.899 |
| S. Darnold | 16 | 12 | +0.119 |
FTN, nflverse
FTN, nflverse
Seattle's motion finally worked
Motion has mostly hurt Seattle's offense this year. At Washington, for the first time, it helped. Seattle motioned on 62.7% of its snaps, more than its 58.0% rate from the first two games and its 56.9% rate all of last season.
| Plays | Motion, all | EPA with motion | EPA without | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This game | 67 | 62.7% | +0.11 | −0.25 |
| Earlier this season | 119 | 58.0% | −0.07 | +0.32 |
| Last season | 1,042 | 56.9% | +0.03 | +0.05 |
FTN charting
Plays with motion were worth +0.109 EPA at Washington. Plays without it were worth -0.251. In the first two games it ran the other way: -0.065 EPA with motion, +0.322 without. Last season the two were close to even.
FTN charting
Did 11 personnel get better at Washington?
Seattle's 11 personnel, one back, one tight end, three receivers, has been below average all season. EPA per play was -0.352 in Week 1, +0.107 in Week 2, and -0.235 at Washington. Success rate was 15.0%, 35.3%, and 38.1% across those same three weeks. At Washington the two numbers moved in opposite directions: EPA per play went negative while success rate reached 38.1%, its high point for the season. The last drive of the game accounts for most of that success rate.
| Week | Plays | EPA per play | Success |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20 | −0.352 | 15.0% |
| 2 | 17 | +0.107 | 35.3% |
| 3 | 21 | −0.235 | 38.1% |
Sumer Sports, nflverse
Across the three games it's -0.175 EPA per play and 29.3% success on 58 plays. Seattle ran 11 personnel at about even EPA and 47.5% success all of last season. The league is at +0.007 EPA and 43.1% success through three weeks this year.
| Split | Plays | EPA per play | Success |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-3 | 58 | −0.175 | 29.3% |
Sumer Sports, nflverse
| Plays | EPA per play | Success |
|---|---|---|
| 417 | −0.000 | 47.5% |
Sumer Sports, nflverse
| Plays | EPA per play | Success |
|---|---|---|
| 3,260 | +0.007 | 43.1% |
Sumer Sports, nflverse
Most of Week 3's success rate came from one drive. Seattle threw a pick-six out of 11 personnel with 4:09 left in the fourth quarter, then ran its final drive of the game entirely in 11: five plays, all successful, ending on a touchdown to Cooper Kupp. Take those two stretches out and 11 personnel was still bad at Washington: -0.120 EPA per play, 20.0% success, on the other 15 plays.
| Split | Plays | EPA per play | Success |
|---|---|---|---|
| The final drive | 5 | +1.111 | 100.0% |
| The interception | 1 | −8.701 | 0.0% |
| The rest of the game | 15 | −0.120 | 20.0% |
Sumer Sports, nflverse
Other groupings worked better that day. 12 personnel gained +0.062 EPA per play at 55.2% success on 29 plays. 21 personnel gained +0.438 at 63.6% success on 11 plays.
| Grouping | Plays | EPA per play | Success |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 29 | +0.062 | 55.2% |
| 11 | 21 | −0.235 | 38.1% |
| 21 | 11 | +0.438 | 63.6% |
| 13 | 3 | −1.544 | 33.3% |
Sumer Sports, nflverse
Washington's defense made it easier. Entering the game, Washington had allowed +0.136 EPA per play and 47.3% success to 11 personnel in the first two weeks, softer than most.
| Plays | EPA per play | Success |
|---|---|---|
| 74 | +0.136 | 47.3% |
Sumer Sports, nflverse
Seattle's pass rush gets home fast
Seattle's overall pressure rate ranks 13th in the league, 40.7% of dropbacks against a league average of 39.5%. Nothing special there. But when the rush gets there, it usually gets there fast. Seattle's quick pressure rate, a pressure in under 2.5 seconds, ranks 4th at 23.1%. The league average is 18.3%.
| Team | Quick rate |
|---|---|
| DET | 26.2% |
| JAX | 25.5% |
| CLE | 24.1% |
| SEA | 23.1% |
| MIN | 23.1% |
Sumer Sports
56.8% of Seattle's pressures arrive quick, 3rd in the league behind Miami's 64.0% and Detroit's 57.6%. The league average is 46.4%. Only Miami's front gets to the quarterback faster on average than Seattle's 2.45 seconds.
Sumer Sports
Sumer Sports
The Chargers, 0-3, visit Lumen Field
Seattle hosts the Los Angeles Chargers Sunday at 1:25 PM Pacific. Seattle opened a 3 point favorite. The line is now Seattle -7, and the total has dropped from 45.5 to 42.5.
| Game | Opened | Now | Total opened | Total now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks | SEA -3 | SEA -7 | 45.5 | 42.5 |
ESPN scoreboard. Pulled 2026-09-29 10:23 UTC. Wednesday is our own snapshot, taken on the Wednesday run.
The Chargers are 0-3. Entering the game they rank 30th in the NFL in point differential, at -10.7 a game, and 30th in net EPA per play.
| Team | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| LAC | 0 | 3 |
nflverse play-by-play. On defense, lower is better, so rank 1 is the stingiest.
| Stat | Seattle | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| POINT DIFFERENTIAL | 6th, +8.3 | 30th, -10.7 |
| NET EPA / PLAY | 4th, +0.207 | 30th, -0.204 |
nflverse, FTN, Sumer Sports
The Chargers lean on 21 personnel more than almost anyone
21 personnel, two backs and a tight end, is fading league-wide. The Chargers are going the other way. They've more than doubled their share of it, from 14.4% of plays last season to 30.5% this season, second only to San Francisco's 42.9%. Miami (28.9%) and Minnesota (18.5%) are next.
Sumer Sports, nflverse
It hasn't been efficient anywhere. Across the league, 21 personnel averages -0.098 EPA per play against +0.007 for every other grouping. The Chargers are worse than that in 21, at -0.107, but everything else they run averages -0.223. It's the least bad part of a struggling offense.
| Split | 21 personnel | Everything else |
|---|---|---|
| League | −0.098 | +0.007 |
| Chargers | −0.107 | −0.223 |
Sumer Sports, nflverse
The Chargers arrive near the bottom of the league on offense
Entering the Seattle game, the Chargers ranked 30th in the NFL in net EPA per play and 26th in net success rate.
| Stat | Seattle | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| NET EPA / PLAY | 4th, +0.207 | 30th, -0.204 |
| NET SUCCESS RATE | 2nd, +10.5% | 26th, -4.5% |
nflverse, FTN, Sumer Sports
Play action hasn't been an answer. Entering the game, Los Angeles ranked 27th in the league in play-action EPA per dropback, at +0.440.
| Stat | Chargers |
|---|---|
| PLAY ACTION | 27th, +0.440 |
nflverse, FTN, Sumer Sports
