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Seattle's offense draws the league's shakiest pass defense this week.

The 0-3 Chargers rank 30th in the league in net EPA per play. Their pass defense ranks 30th in DVOA allowed, across from a Seattle passing game that ranks 3rd. Their offense ranks 31st, across from a Seattle defense that ranks 3rd.

In today's issue
  1. 01Seattle's offense draws the league's shakiest pass defense
  2. 02Seattle's defense meets one of the league's worst offenses
  3. 03The Chargers have made the league's biggest jump in motion. It hasn't worked.
  4. 04Where Seattle's passing game should find room
  5. 05The Chargers blitz less than the league average. Seattle wants them to.
  6. 06The one place Seattle isn't favored: on the ground
01Next up

Seattle's offense draws the league's shakiest pass defense

Seattle is 2-1 and hosts the 0-3 Chargers Sunday at 1:25 PM Pacific at Lumen Field. The line has moved from Seattle -3 to Seattle -7, and the total is down from 45.5 to 42.5.

The matchup, entering the game
StatSeattleChargers
POINT DIFFERENTIAL6th, +8.330th, -10.7
NET EPA / PLAY4th, +0.20730th, -0.204
TOTAL DVOA5th, +31.8%30th, -44.0%

nflverse, FTN, Sumer Sports

Three games is an early sample, but the gap here is wide, and it's widest through the air. Seattle's passing offense ranks 3rd in the league in DVOA, at +58.4%. The Chargers' pass defense ranks 30th in DVOA allowed, at +49.1%, and 24th in EPA per dropback allowed.

Seattle's pass game, entering the game
StatSeattleChargers
EPA / DROPBACK5th, +0.28524th, +0.135
PASS DVOA vs PASS DEFENSE DVOA3rd, +58.4%30th, +49.1%

nflverse, FTN, Sumer Sports

Offense and defense EPA per play, all 32 teams, entering Week 4
−0.4−0.20.00.20.4−0.4−0.20.00.20.4Off EPA (better →)↑ Def EPA (better)BETTER AT BOTHWORSE AT BOTHSEALAC

nflverse

nflverse, FTN, Sumer Sports

02Other side of the ball

Seattle's defense meets one of the league's worst offenses

Los Angeles ranks 31st in the NFL in EPA per play on offense, at -0.188, and 29th in points per game, at 14.7. Seattle's defense ranks 3rd in EPA per play allowed, at -0.156, and has allowed 16.7 points a game.

Chargers offense vs. Seattle defense, entering the game
StatChargersSeattle
POINTS PER GAME29th, 14.73rd, 16.7
EPA / PLAY31st, -0.1883rd, -0.156

nflverse, FTN, Sumer Sports

It's the same story through the air. The Chargers' passing offense ranks 24th in the league in DVOA, at +3.9%, against a Seattle pass defense that ranks 5th, at -24.9%.

Chargers passing vs. Seattle pass defense, entering the game
StatChargersSeattle
EPA / DROPBACK28th, -0.1339th, -0.032
PASS DVOA vs PASS DEFENSE DVOA24th, +3.9%5th, -24.9%

nflverse, FTN, Sumer Sports

nflverse, FTN, Sumer Sports

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03Around the NFL

The Chargers have made the league's biggest jump in motion. It hasn't worked.

The Chargers have gone from motioning on 52.3% of offensive plays in 2025 to 78.0% in 2026, the biggest jump of any team in the league. Only Miami, at 80.9%, and San Francisco, at 80.0%, motion more often.

Motion rate on offense, 2025 vs. 2026
0%25%50%75%100%2025 rate2026 rateMIASFLAC52.3% to 78.0%TBNOATLBUFBALLAARILVINDKCSEA57.0% to 59.0%DENCARJAXDALWASDETMINGBNYGCLEPHINYJCINHOUTENCHINEPIT

nflverse, FTN charting

It hasn't worked. The Chargers average -0.275 EPA per play when they motion, the worst mark of any offense in the league. Seattle motions less often: 59.0% of plays in 2026, up from 57.0% in 2025. It averages -0.023 EPA per play doing it.

nflverse, FTN charting

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04Receivers

Where Seattle's passing game should find room

Jaxon Smith-Njigba ranks 2nd in the league in DVOA out of the WR1 slot, at +51.4%. The Chargers rank 21st defending it. Cooper Kupp's WR3 numbers are similar, 11th in DVOA, against a Chargers defense that ranks 27th defending the slot, its worst matchup on the field. AJ Barner's tight end production ranks 11th, against a Chargers defense that ranks 18th covering tight ends.

Seattle receivers vs. Chargers coverage, entering the game
StatSeattleChargersDetail
WR12nd, +51.4%21st, +25.6%Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR311th, +21.2%27th, +58.4%Cooper Kupp
TE11th, +16.8%18th, +7.2%AJ Barner

nflverse, FTN, Sumer Sports

Rashid Shaheed is the exception. Seattle's WR2 slot ranks 31st in the league in DVOA, at -65.7%, and the Chargers' defense is about average there, 17th. Jadarian Price faces the toughest draw of the group: the Chargers rank 6th defending running backs out of the backfield, at -52.4% DVOA allowed.

Seattle receivers vs. Chargers coverage, entering the game
StatSeattleChargersDetail
WR231st, -65.7%17th, +4.0%Rashid Shaheed
RB14th, +0.1%6th, -52.4%Jadarian Price

nflverse, FTN, Sumer Sports

nflverse, FTN, Sumer Sports

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05Blitz

The Chargers blitz less than the league average. Seattle wants them to.

Seattle has faced a blitz on 41.6% of its dropbacks this season, well above the NFL average of 29.8%, and made teams pay for it: +0.48 EPA per dropback against the blitz, against +0.09 EPA when the defense rushes four or fewer.

Dropbacks with and without a blitz
Blitz rateEPA, no blitzEPA, blitz
SEA offense41.6%+0.09+0.48
NFL29.8%+0.04−0.02

Sumer charting. EPA from the offense's side, so for a defense lower is better.

The Chargers have gone the other way. Los Angeles has blitzed on 25.5% of dropbacks, below the league rate. Its pressure rate is close to average without blitzing, 38.2% against the NFL's 36.5%, and below average when it does blitz, 42.3% against the league's 46.5%.

Dropbacks with and without a blitz
Blitz ratePressure, no blitzPressure, blitz
LAC defense25.5%38.2%42.3%
NFL29.8%36.5%46.5%

Sumer charting. EPA from the offense's side, so for a defense lower is better.

Sumer Sports, nflverse

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06Run game

The one place Seattle isn't favored: on the ground

Seattle's running game is the one part of the offense that isn't a mismatch. The Seahawks rank 30th in the league in EPA per rush, at -0.208, and 29th in rush DVOA. The Chargers' run defense, by contrast, is the better half of their unit: 12th in EPA per rush allowed and 11th in DVOA allowed.

Seattle run game vs. Chargers run defense, entering the game
StatSeattleChargers
EPA / RUSH30th, -0.20812th, -0.073
RUSH DVOA vs RUSH DEFENSE DVOA29th, -26.0%11th, -20.6%

nflverse, FTN, Sumer Sports

The Chargers' own running game isn't much better than Seattle's run defense lets it be. Los Angeles ranks 31st in EPA per rush on offense. Seattle's run defense ranks 2nd in EPA per rush allowed and 1st in rush success rate allowed, at a league-low 28.2%.

Chargers run game vs. Seattle run defense, entering the game
StatChargersSeattle
EPA / RUSH31st, -0.2552nd, -0.241
RUSH SUCCESS RATE16th, 42.0%1st, 28.2%

nflverse, FTN, Sumer Sports

nflverse, FTN, Sumer Sports

The latest show
FIRST LOOK: Seahawks Face Struggling Chargers Watch
Thursday: the Rooting Guide, every game this weekend and who Seattle should root for.

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