Six other NFC teams are 2-1 or better than Seattle, and Sunday is loaded with chances to thin that out.

The NFC playoff race, not just the division

Seven teams make the NFC playoffs, four division winners and three wild cards. Seattle is 2-1, and six other teams in the conference are 2-1 or better: San Francisco and Minnesota at 3-0, Chicago, Detroit, the Giants and Philadelphia at 2-1. That group is the race, and Sunday is a chance to thin it out.

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Point differential separates the group. Seattle's plus-25 ranks fourth, behind only San Francisco, Chicago and Minnesota, with Detroit, the Giants and Philadelphia well behind it even though all three match Seattle's 2-1 record.

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Seattle's own schedule decides which of these results help most. The Seahawks play Chicago in Week 8, Dallas in Week 13, the Giants in Week 14, Philadelphia in Week 15 and Carolina in Week 17, and they already lost to Washington in Week 3. They don't play Minnesota or Detroit this year, so someone else has to slow those two down.

nflverse schedules

Here are the Week 4 games with real stakes for that race.

nflverse schedules

The Broncos at the 49ers, 1:25 PM Pacific, the same window as Seattle's own game. San Francisco leads the division by a game. A Seattle win Sunday and a 49ers loss would tie it at 3-1. Root for the Broncos.

The Dolphins at the Vikings, 1:05 PM Pacific. Minnesota is 3-0, and Seattle doesn't play the Vikings this season. Only someone else can slow them down. Root for the Dolphins.

The Jets at the Bears, 10:00 AM Pacific. Chicago is 2-1 and visits Lumen Field in Week 8. Root for the Jets.

The Lions at the Panthers, 5:20 PM Pacific. Seattle doesn't play Detroit either, and Carolina is just 1-2. Root for the Panthers.

The Cardinals at the Giants, 10:00 AM Pacific, is the pick that will surprise readers: root for Arizona, not New York. Arizona is favored by 1.5, and it's still the pick. The Cardinals aren't a good team, but Seattle already beat them in Week 2, so another Arizona loss only pushes a team Seattle has already handled further back. The Giants are 2-1, level with Seattle, and one of the two has to lose Sunday. A Giants loss knocks out a team that's even with Seattle in the standings right now. Beat the Chargers while Arizona wins, and Seattle is 3-1 with the Giants fallen to 2-2.

The Rams at the Eagles, 10:00 AM Pacific, doesn't get the same exception. The Rams are 1-2 and Seattle plays them twice this season. Root for the Eagles.

The Colts at the Commanders, 6:30 AM Pacific. Washington beat Seattle in Week 3 and holds that tiebreaker. Root for the Colts to keep the Commanders at 1-2 or worse.

The Cowboys at the Texans, 10:00 AM Pacific. Dallas is 1-2 and visits Lumen Field in Week 13. Root for the Texans.

Nobody in the NFC South is above 1-2, so the Packers at the Buccaneers and Monday's Falcons at the Saints decide a division, not a wild card.

Who has the bigger injury problem, Seattle or the Chargers

The Chargers have the bigger injury problem heading into Sunday, but by volume more than by stakes. Seattle's one real worry is also the best player on either injury list.

Value over replacement, VOR, from the Hawk Blogger Player Evaluator, measures how much a player is worth compared to a readily available replacement at his position. 100 is replacement level. 130 is one standard deviation above it. Higher is better, and rank is among qualifying players at his position this season.

Hawk Blogger Player Evaluator

Khalil Mack for the Chargers sat out Wednesday's practice entirely, and Leonard Williams for Seattle was held out of parts of it, both for a rest day, not an injury. Neither counts toward either team's problem below.

Team injury report, Hawk Blogger Player Evaluator, Sumer Sports

Only Ty Okada missed practice Wednesday, and he hasn't played a snap this season. The one real worry is the best player on either list: Julian Love, who ranks 1st of 69 qualifying safeties at 193.6 VOR, was limited with a calf injury. Zabel, who has played every Seattle snap this season, was limited too at 130.9 VOR.

Team injury report, Hawk Blogger Player Evaluator, Sumer Sports

The Chargers' list is longer and busier. Six players missed practice Wednesday with an injury, and three of them play real snaps: Justin Eboigbe (62.1% of defensive snaps), Donte Jackson (51.3%, a concussion) and Kayode Awosika (46.3%). Their most-used injured player, Derwin James at 94.4% of defensive snaps, and Ladd McConkey, their highest-VOR injured regular at 128.6, were both limited rather than held out entirely. One number cuts the other way: Eboigbe's VOR is 88.2, below replacement level, so missing him costs less than his snap share alone suggests.

This is one day of practice. Game status comes Friday, and Thursday's and Friday's reports can still change the picture.