Seattle opened as a 3-point favorite over the Chargers. It's a touchdown now.

Seattle opened as a 3-point favorite over the Chargers. It's a touchdown now.

Seattle is 2-1 and hosts the 0-3 Chargers Sunday at 1:25 PM Pacific at Lumen Field. Seattle's plus-8.3 point differential ranks 7th in the league. The Chargers, at minus-10.7, rank 30th.

The number has moved toward Seattle all week, from an opening line of SEA -3 to SEA -7, with the total down from 45.5 to 42.5.

Today's issue goes deeper on five things in this matchup, a second look at the NFC West's biggest playoff-race games this week, a league-wide coverage shift with Seattle at the top of it, and a Player Spotlight that runs a Seahawk and two Chargers through the evaluator.

Five things to watch Sunday

1Seattle's run defense ranks 2nd in the league in EPA per rush allowed, at -0.241. The Chargers' own run game ranks 31st, at -0.255 EPA per rush.

2The Chargers' kicking game is a weak link. Their field goal and extra point unit ranks 30th in the league, at -3.9. Seattle's ranks 10th, at +1.5.

3The Chargers' offense has struggled against the look Seattle plays most. Seattle's defense lines up in nickel on 69% of snaps, 9th-most in the league. Across 88 dropbacks against it this season, the Chargers' offense ranks 28th in EPA per play.

4Jaxon Smith-Njigba ranks 3rd in the league in DVOA among WR1s, at +39.7%. The Chargers' defense ranks 10th against the position.

5Seattle's defense ranks 3rd in DVOA this season, at -20.9%. The Chargers' offense ranks 26th, at -16.8%.

Philadelphia's injury list is the longest of the NFC West's three playoff-race games this week

Thursday's practice reports are in for the three games with the most NFC playoff-race stakes this week, and Philadelphia's is still the longest: DeVonta Smith and Zack Baun, who have each played more than 94% of the Eagles' snaps this season, missed practice Wednesday and Thursday.

ESPN scoreboard, nflverse schedules

Denver's Thursday list is short. Linebacker Dondrea Tillman missed practice Wednesday and Thursday. Defensive end Zach Allen, limited Wednesday on a rest day, was back to full Thursday, and defensive tackle D.J. Jones joined the report Thursday, also limited on a rest day. San Francisco's injury list is still the longer of the two heading into Sunday, even with some good news of its own: tackle Trent Williams, who sat out Wednesday on a rest day, was limited Thursday with a neck injury, and running back Christian McCaffrey, who also rested Wednesday, was back to full. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw, defensive lineman Keion White and receiver Mike Evans all missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, each on more than half of the 49ers' snaps this season. Defensive linemen Nick Bosa and James Thompson Jr., and receiver KhaDarel Hodge, missed both days too, but none of them is on the field even half the time. The line has moved toward San Francisco since it opened, from -2.5 to -3, with the total up from 46.5 to 47.5. Root for Denver.

Team injury reports

Philadelphia's practice report is still the longest of the week, even with one piece of good news: linebacker Jihaad Campbell was back to full Thursday after being limited Wednesday. Linebacker Zack Baun and receiver DeVonta Smith, who have each played more than 94% of the Eagles' snaps this season, missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, along with tight end Dallas Goedert and receiver Marquise Brown, though neither of those two has played even half of Philadelphia's snaps this season. Defensive tackles Moro Ojomo and Jordan Davis stayed limited both days, and safety Marcus Epps joined the report Thursday, limited with a groin injury, on more than 60% of the Eagles' snaps this season himself. Running back Will Shipley went from a full miss Wednesday to limited Thursday. The Rams have their own list. Cornerback Jaylen Watson and tight end Colby Parkinson, each on more than half of the Rams' snaps this season, missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, along with defensive end Aaron Donald and tight end Terrance Ferguson. Linebacker Nate Landman, on more than 90% of the Rams' snaps, cornerback Josh Wallace, safety Kamren Kinchens and receiver Puka Nacua all stayed limited both days. Defensive tackle Poona Ford joined the report Thursday, a rest-day DNP, and receiver Davante Adams, who sat out Wednesday on a rest day of his own, was back to full Thursday. The Rams' line has moved toward Los Angeles since it opened, from -1.5 to -3.5, with the total down from 47.5 to 42.5. Root for the Eagles.

Team injury reports

Arizona's injury list is lighter than it looked Wednesday. Guard Isaac Seumalo, safety Budda Baker and linebacker Josh Sweat all sat out Wednesday on rest days and were back to full Thursday, and linebacker Mack Wilson, limited Wednesday with a thumb injury, was full too. Center Hjalte Froholdt and defensive tackles Walter Nolen and Roy Lopez stayed limited both days, each on more than 60% of the Cardinals' snaps, and safety Dadrion Taylor-Demerson missed both days himself. New York's list is shorter and has no quarterback on it: tackle Andrew Thomas missed practice both days, safety Tyler Nubin stayed limited, and running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. went from a full miss Wednesday to limited Thursday. The line flipped from New York -7 at open to Arizona -2.5 now, the biggest move of the three NFC West games this week, with the total down from 45.5 to 44.5. Seattle has already beaten the Cardinals this season, and the Giants are 2-1, level with Seattle, so root for Arizona, this week's one exception to rooting against the division.

Team injury reports

The league is playing a lot more Cover 6 than it used to. Nobody plays more than Seattle.

Cover 6, quarter-quarter-half, is up sharply around the league. It was 8.8% of dropbacks in the first three weeks of last season, 8.8% the rest of the way, and 12.5% through three weeks this year. Quarters coverage overall, Cover 4 and Cover 6 together, has climbed from 22.7% and 25.4% last season to 29.2% this year.

Sumer charting

Cover 2 is going the other way, from 17.9% of dropbacks to 15.9% to 13.8% this year, and what's left of it is getting hit: offenses average +0.162 EPA per dropback against Cover 2 this season, worst of any coverage, up from -0.056 last year. Cover 0 and Cover 3 have been the stingiest shells this season, at -0.050 and -0.042. Cover 6 itself isn't a fix by itself. Offenses average +0.034 EPA per dropback against it this year and +0.023 last year, close to league average both times. The trend is the shift, not proof that it works.

Sumer charting

Seattle's defense plays Cover 6 on 29.3% of dropbacks, the most in the league. Last season it was 15.9%. Quarters coverage overall: Seattle 41.4%, 3rd behind Arizona at 50.0% and Tennessee at 47.2%. Three NFC West teams sit near the top of that list: Arizona, Seattle and the Rams at 39.8%. Four teams moved the most into quarters coverage: Pittsburgh (16.5% to 40.4%), Dallas (20.6% to 39.5%), Arizona (33.2% to 50.0%) and the Rams (24.1% to 39.8%). Dallas and the Rams nearly eliminated Cover 2 entirely, to 2.3% and 2.9%.

Seattle's own offense has done well against quarters coverage this season, 4th in the league at +0.367 EPA per dropback. The Chargers' offense ranks 27th against it, at -0.272. Both samples are small.

Sumer charting. Small samples for both teams.

Derwin James and Ladd McConkey missed practice Thursday

Team injury reports

Derwin James and Ladd McConkey are the two players the Chargers can least afford to lose, and Thursday both went the wrong way. James was limited Wednesday with a hamstring injury and didn't practice at all Thursday. McConkey was limited Wednesday with a foot injury and sat out Thursday too. Both got worse, not better. The report doesn't say any more than that, and Sunday's game status comes Friday afternoon.

Elsewhere on Seattle's Thursday report, running back Zach Charbonnet joined it for the first time, limited with a knee injury, and running back Jadarian Price went from limited to a full miss. Defensive tackle Jarran Reed, defensive tackle Leonard Williams and guard Zabel all returned to full, and safety Julian Love stayed limited both days. For the Chargers, cornerback Donte Jackson and defensive tackle Justin Eboigbe both improved from a full miss Wednesday to limited Thursday, and outside linebacker Khalil Mack was full after resting Wednesday.

Start with James. In two seasons, the Chargers' defense has barely played a snap without him: 53 plays total, and most of those come from one game, against Minnesota in 2025, when he played only a handful of snaps. That's nowhere near enough of a sample to say anything about how the defense holds up without him. The real finding is how rarely the Chargers have had to find out.

Sumer charting. Garbage time out. Excludes 2025 Week 18 at Denver, when James did not play.

Ladd McConkey's absence has cost the Chargers' passing game more. Across the last two seasons, the offense averages -0.021 EPA per dropback with him on the field and -0.115 without him, on 585 and 78 dropbacks. This year the gap is much wider, but on a tiny sample: -0.010 with him against -0.503 without him, on 66 and 30 dropbacks. Last season the offense was fine without him, +0.128 on 48 dropbacks. The honest read: the Chargers' passing game has been worse without McConkey across both seasons, sharply so this year on a small sample. He was limited Wednesday and didn't practice at all Thursday.

Sumer charting. Passes only. Excludes 2025 Week 18 at Denver.

Byron Murphy's rise meets the Chargers' weakest lineman

Value over replacement, VOR, from the Hawk Blogger Player Evaluator scores every player against his position, from 0 to 100 on each measure, with 100 set at replacement level. After this, just VOR. This week's spotlight is Seahawks defensive lineman Byron Murphy, plus a Chargers player worth watching and one worth picking on.

Hawk Blogger Player Evaluator

Murphy's value over replacement is up 36.7 points since the Commanders game, to 135.8. He plays the interior of Seattle's line, the same spot where the Chargers are weakest: Cole Strange, their starting guard, rates 53.2, below replacement level. The two won't matchup one-on-one all game, but Seattle's best-rising lineman lines up where the Chargers are thinnest.

Hawk Blogger Player Evaluator

Murphy's best number is stopping the run, a 95th-percentile run stuff rate. His weak spot is finishing: an 80th-percentile pressure rate that turns into just an 18th-percentile sack rate.

Hawk Blogger Player Evaluator

Strange's worst number is run blocking, in the 1st percentile. Pass protection isn't a strength either, 7th percentile in pressure allowed and 6th in pressure rate allowed.

Hawk Blogger Player Evaluator

Jefferson is the Chargers' best player by VOR, at 158.4, and the one to watch for Seattle's passing game: a 92nd percentile in coverage, 91st against the run. His one soft number is yards allowed per coverage snap, 40th percentile.

Full profiles for Murphy, Jefferson and Strange are in the Player Evaluator on hawkblogger.com. These are evaluator marks, not grades.

Seattle's offensive and defensive lines both have the better matchup

Seattle's offensive line has allowed pressure on 22.0% of dropbacks this season, 4th-fewest in the league, and a sack rate of 3.0%, also 4th. The Chargers' pass rush generates pressure at a middling rate, 25.7%, 19th in the league, with a sack rate of 6.9%, 11th.

nflverse, FTN, Sumer Sports

Flip it, and the gap is bigger. The Chargers' offensive line has allowed pressure on 35.3% of dropbacks, 29th in the league, and a 7.7% sack rate, 25th. Seattle's pass rush generates pressure at a 30.2% rate, 12th in the league, with a 6.5% sack rate, 15th.

nflverse, FTN, Sumer Sports

nflverse, FTN, Sumer Sports

The Chargers' offense has struggled against the look Seattle plays most

Seattle's defense lines up in nickel on 69% of its snaps, 9th-most in the league. The Chargers have seen it 88 times this season, a real sample, and their offense ranks 28th in EPA per play against it, at -0.206. Seattle's base defense, which shows up on just 19% of snaps, has only faced the Chargers' offense 4 times, too small a sample to read anything into.

nflverse, FTN, Sumer Sports

Seattle's own offense shows the same split in reverse. Against the Chargers' base defense, which shows up on just 28% of their snaps, Seattle ranks 2nd in the league at +0.617 EPA per play, though that's only 17 dropbacks. Against the nickel look the Chargers play on 52% of snaps, a 51-dropback sample, Seattle is closer to the middle of the league, 14th, at +0.106.

nflverse, FTN, Sumer Sports