Seattle rules out Jadarian Price. The Chargers rule out four players.

Fleury's offense is about average, adjusted for schedule, and worse than last year's

New offensive coordinator Brian Fleury's first three games came against New England, at Arizona and at Washington. Two of those three opponents ranked among the league's 10 worst defenses last year. The starting quarterback also missed time: Sam Darnold played three snaps in Week 1 before Drew Lock took over, then returned in Week 3.

Three raw numbers crept up from last season: EPA per play, EPA per dropback and success rate. EPA per rush fell. Adjusted for the schedule, the offense grades out close to league average, below where it stood a year ago.

nflverse play-by-play

The quarterback change cuts the other way. Lock averaged +0.45 EPA per dropback over his 50 dropbacks. Darnold has averaged +0.04 over 48, including two interceptions in the Washington game, one returned for a touchdown. Washington's pass defense has allowed 0.244 EPA per play this season, the 4th-most in the league.

nflverse play-by-play

By league rank, the offense has moved in both directions. It is up 15 spots in EPA per screen, from 16th to 1st, and up 12 in turnovers per drive, from 32nd to 20th. It is down 16 in third down conversion, from 10th to 26th, and down 21 in pressure rate allowed, from 7th to 28th.

Hawk Blogger graphics

The scheme carried over almost completely. What changed is the personnel mix. Heavy sets work: the 21 personnel share nearly doubled, from 14% to 25%, and its EPA per play went from -0.052 to +0.164. The 11 personnel share fell from 42% to 32%, and its EPA per play fell from +0.029 to -0.183, now a tell defenses are rushing against.

Hawk Blogger graphics

Hawk Blogger graphics

The offense started slow and finished fast. First-half EPA per play fell from +0.059 to -0.143, 28th in the league. Second-half and overtime EPA per play rose from +0.022 to +0.246. All three 2026 games follow the same shape: 0 and 13 against New England, 7 and 24 at Arizona, 10 and 21 at Washington.

Hawk Blogger graphics

The run game is the clearest step back. EPA per designed run fell from -0.076 to -0.263, a drop from 21st to 28th in the league. Walker is gone from the backfield and Charbonnet has been on the PUP list all season. Emanuel Wilson (32 carries), Jadarian Price (28) and George Holani (15) have taken over the carries this season.

Heavy personnel, the screen game and a better second half are all real gains. Three games against a soft schedule, with a new backfield and a quarterback change in the middle of it, reads as closer to incomplete than a verdict.

The Chargers are 0-3 against what the lines expected

The Chargers are 0-3. By the moneylines, they should not be. They were an 82% favorite at home against Arizona and a 76% favorite at home against Las Vegas, and lost both. They were a 28% underdog at Buffalo in Week 3, and lost that too. Add up the three games and the lines expected 1.8 wins. The Chargers have zero.

nflverse schedules

The offense is the reason. Los Angeles ranks 31st in the league in offensive EPA per play. Justin Herbert has played all three games and is averaging -0.13 EPA per dropback, with a 7.7% sack rate and a 3.8% interception rate on four picks. Seattle's offense, by contrast, ranks 10th, with Drew Lock and Sam Darnold combining for a 3.0% sack rate and a 2.0% interception rate.

nflverse play-by-play

The Chargers' defense is not the problem. It ranks 15th in the league in defensive EPA per play, just off average. Seattle's defense ranks 3rd, the stronger side of the ball on either roster.

Seattle is favored by a touchdown. The Chargers have been nearly two wins worse than the lines expected through three games, and the offense, not the defense, explains most of the gap.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the NFL in yards after contact against Cover 2

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has forced 34 yards after contact on catches against Cover 2 this season, more than double the next receiver in the league. The league average is 2.9 yards, across 57 qualified receivers.

Sumer charting

Most of the catches are intermediate digs, four of his seven against the look, but they combine for zero yards after contact. All 34 of the yards after contact come from one play: a 4-yard hitch in Week 1 against New England that turned into a 45-yard gain, with 34 of those yards coming after the catch.

Sumer charting

It's a small sample, seven catches against the look this season. But it's also a reminder that Smith-Njigba's growth this season isn't just about targets. He is winning after the catch too, against a coverage that's supposed to limit exactly that.

San Francisco's defensive line takes a hit before Denver

San Francisco's final injury report is in for Sunday's game against Denver. Nick Bosa (knee, calf), James Thompson Jr. (ankle) and Mykel Williams (knee) are all out. Dre Greenlaw (quadricep), Keion White (hamstring), Mike Evans (ribs) and Jaden Dugger (shoulder) are questionable after a limited practice Friday. Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams were full practice participants Friday. KhaDarel Hodge isn't on Friday's report.

Team injury reports

All three players ruled out are on the defensive line, but the snap counts say it isn't three starters lost. Bosa has played 35% of San Francisco's defensive snaps this season, missing time with the same knee issue already. Thompson is a rotational lineman at 20%. Williams hasn't played a defensive snap yet this season.

Sumer snap counts

Seattle hosts San Francisco next, in Week 5 on October 11, then plays them again in Week 12. Worth watching for next Friday's report: whether Bosa's workload grows, and whether Williams gets on the field at all.