Seattle is favored at home over unbeaten San Francisco

Seattle is favored at home over unbeaten San Francisco

Seattle (3-1) hosts San Francisco (4-0) Sunday at 1:25 PM Pacific at Lumen Field. The line opened Seattle -3.5 and sits at Seattle -2.5. The total is 46.5.

San Francisco is one of three unbeaten teams, with Kansas City and Minnesota, and it has beaten its closing lines by 1.4 wins over four games. Seattle, by contrast, is almost exactly where the lines expected it, up 0.2 wins at 3-1.

nflverse. Expected wins sum each game's closing-moneyline win probability, vig removed.

The gap between the records and the lines comes from the offense, not the defense. San Francisco's defense ranks 12th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed and 17th in success rate allowed, both closer to the middle of the league than a 4-0 record suggests.

Seattle's own offense sits in the same range, 13th in EPA per play and 13th in success rate. Its running game is the issue, 28th in EPA per rush, which is the Haynes and Stephens story below.

Seattle's passing game does its best work against extra rushers. Seattle has posted +0.328 EPA per play when blitzed this season, against +0.035 when it isn't, both four-game samples. San Francisco blitzes on 26.3% of its defensive snaps, below the NFL rate of 29.6%.

Sumer charting. EPA from the offense's side, so for a defense lower is better.

nflverse, Sumer Sports

San Francisco has the NFL's best offense. Two games built most of the lead.

San Francisco leads the NFL at +0.291 EPA per play. Buffalo is second at +0.191. The 49ers' 54.5% success rate is the best in the league too.

nflverse

The game log shows where that lead came from. Against Miami and Arizona, San Francisco put up +1.058 and +0.901 EPA per dropback. Those are blowout numbers. Against the Rams and Broncos it was +0.208 and +0.300.

nflverse play-by-play

Take out those two games and San Francisco sits at +0.15 EPA per play. That would still rank 6th. This is a very good offense that had two huge days. It hasn't been historic every week.

nflverse play-by-play. The rank without Miami and Arizona places that number among the other 31 offenses.

Don't sleep on the opener. The Rams allow -0.232 EPA per play to everyone else, and San Francisco put up +0.179 on them. Week 4 was the quietest game. The 49ers managed +0.12 against Denver, a defense that allows +0.045 to everyone else.

The passing game does the work. Designed runs finished below zero EPA in three of the four games. Miami was the worst of them at -0.218.

The style moved further toward Kyle Shanahan's roots. San Francisco lines up under center on 55.4% of snaps. Last year it was 45.4%. 34.4% of its dropbacks come from under center, the play-action and boot world the offense was built on. It's in 21 personnel on 41.9% of snaps and 11 personnel on 32.0%, and defenses have answered with base on 48.6%.

nflverse play-by-play, Sumer Sports, FTN (computed 2026-10-05 by the Shanahan vs. Macdonald scouting study (Oct. 5))

Monday we showed San Francisco hasn't allowed a sack. The other half is what Purdy does when pressure gets there anyway. San Francisco's pressured dropbacks average +0.31 EPA. In 2025 the 49ers averaged -0.41 under pressure, and the NFL sits at -0.29 this season. Expect that one to come down.

nflverse play-by-play, Sumer Sports, FTN (computed 2026-10-05 by the Shanahan vs. Macdonald scouting study (Oct. 5)). The NFL averages -0.29 EPA per pressured dropback this season.

George Kittle leads every tight end in the league at +46.4% DVOA. Mike Evans ranks 5th among teams' top receivers at +26.9%. Evans was questionable for Denver with a rib injury and played 39 snaps.

nflverse, FTN, Sumer Sports

Defenses are sliding across the league, and some faster than others

Defenses change fast in a four-game season. The New York Jets have allowed the league's biggest jump in success rate, up 18.4 points from Weeks 1-2 to Weeks 3-4. Green Bay is next, up 17.8 points, and Las Vegas third, up 14.4.

nflverse

nflverse. Success rate allowed on every run and pass play, defteam. A rising number means the defense is getting worse at stopping offenses play to play.

San Francisco's defense is part of the same trend, up 6.3 points, 9th-biggest in the league. Seattle's defense has gone the other way, down 1.8 points, one of the steadier units in the league.

nflverse

Purdy and Shanahan haven't solved Macdonald, and now Juszczyk is out

Brock Purdy has started six games against a Mike Macdonald defense. What has Macdonald taken away that no one else does, and what happens to the run game without the fullback?

San Francisco rebuilt its defense into something Seattle hasn't seen

The 49ers flipped their defense from 2025 to 2026. Where does the new look favor Seattle's offense, and where does it hit Seattle's soft spots?

Fleury learned under Shanahan. Here's what came with him and what didn't.

Brian Fleury spent seven seasons on Kyle Shanahan's staff before he took over Seattle's offense. Four games in, where do the two look alike, and where has Fleury gone his own way?

Seattle's defense isn't worse than last year. Two things are.

A lot of fans think the defense took a step back. Does any number outside the red zone and the penalty flags say so?