Hawk Blogger Daily
Friday, October 16, 2026 · Self-scout

Denver gained 168 yards and still beat Seattle

Teams that gained that little had won 40 of 335 games since 1999. Seattle hadn't lost to an offense held that low since 1999.

01Seahawks

Denver gained 168 yards and still beat Seattle

168
total yards for Denver
28.6%
Denver's success rate
30
Denver's yards in the second half

Seattle's defense held Denver to 168 yards Thursday night and lost anyway. Denver averaged -0.14 EPA per play and had a 28.6% success rate. It converted 4 of 14 third downs. After halftime it gained 30 yards in the third and fourth quarters.

Most of Denver's offense came early. Its first three possessions went for 125 yards and both of its touchdowns. Its last ten went for 43 yards and 3 points, and those 3 points came on a 53-yard field goal after an overtime interception gave Denver the ball at the Seattle 43.

Yards on each Denver possession
−25025507510012345678910111213279444194323−102−18

nflverse play-by-play

Denver's first three possessions, then the rest
PossessionsCountYardsPoints
First three312514
Last ten10433

nflverse play-by-play

Teams rarely win with numbers like these. From 1999 through last week, teams that gained 168 yards or fewer won 40 of 335 games. Teams with a success rate of 28.6% or lower won 113 of 574. Teams with 30 or fewer yards in the second half won 14 of 70. Before Thursday, 27 teams had done all three, and 3 of them won. Denver became the fourth winner.

Every other regular-season game since 1999
Offense hadGamesWonLost
168 or fewer total yards33540295
Success rate of 28.6% or lower574113460
30 or fewer second-half yards701456
All three27324

nflverse play-by-play. Team-games, regular season 1999 to Week 5 of 2026, Thursday's game left out. Yards from scrimmage plays, sacks included. Success rate on pass and run plays. Second half is the third and fourth quarters.

Seattle hadn't lost a game like this in a long time. The only Seattle loss since 1999 with fewer yards allowed came on Nov. 28, 1999, when Tampa Bay gained 156 yards and won 16-3. The next lowest is the 2015 Rams, who gained 205 yards and won 23-17. Before Thursday, every Seattle loss since that 1999 game came against an offense that gained at least 205 yards.

Seattle's losses with the fewest yards allowed, before Thursday
SeasonOpponentYards allowedFinal
1999TB156TB 16, SEA 3
2015LA205STL 23, SEA 17
2011SF209SEA 17, SF 33
2023CIN214SEA 13, CIN 17
2017WAS244WAS 17, SEA 14

nflverse play-by-play. Regular season and playoffs, 1999 through Week 5 of 2026. Yards from scrimmage plays, sacks included.

nflverse play-by-play

02Seahawks

Darnold has thrown 7 interceptions in four starts. The last Seahawk to do it was Darnold

Sam Darnold threw two more interceptions Thursday. That's 7 in his four starts this season: 2 against Washington, 1 against the Chargers, 2 against San Francisco and 2 in Denver.

Darnold's starts this season
WeekOpponentAttemptsInterceptionsEPA per dropback
3WAS452+0.12
4LAC251−0.16
5SF342−0.30
6DEN562−0.10

nflverse play-by-play

Both of Thursday's picks came with the game on the line. The first came on third and 1 with 1:31 left in regulation, with Seattle down three, and was picked off at the Denver 31. Seattle got the ball back and tied it on a 34-yard field goal with 7 seconds left. The second came on third and 7 in overtime, and it gave Denver the ball at the Seattle 43. Denver kicked the 53-yard field goal that won it.

The last Seattle quarterback with 7 interceptions in four straight starts was Darnold himself. He threw 7 from Oct. 20 to Nov. 16, 2025. Before him it was Russell Wilson, with 7 from Oct. 25 to Nov. 15, 2020. Wilson also had a run of 9 in 2016. The most in four straight starts since 1999 is 10. Jon Kitna got there once, across 1999 and 2000, and Matt Hasselbeck three times, in 2009 and 2010.

nflverse play-by-play

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03Seahawks

Denver stopped loading the box against Seattle

Denver came into Thursday as one of the league's most aggressive defenses. Through five games it put 8 or more defenders in the box on 53.9% of designed runs, third most in the NFL. It blitzed on 38.2% of dropbacks, fifth most. It played two-high safeties on 47.1% of dropbacks. It had faced 13 bootlegs and allowed -0.090 EPA per bootleg, 11th in the league.

That's not what Seattle saw. Denver put 8 or more in the box on 20.8% of Seattle's designed runs. It had six or fewer on 37.5% of them, against 8.5% of runs before. Its average box was 6.79 defenders, against 7.94 before. Both were Denver's lightest fronts of the season. It played two-high on 51.8% of dropbacks, blitzed on 31.0% and played Cover 6 on 23.2%, against 8.6% before. It also lived in nickel. Base defense was on the field for 24.4% of snaps, against 41.3% before. It saw one bootleg.

Denver's defense: its first five games, then Seattle
GameOpponentTwo-highBlitz8+ box on runs
Before SEAWks 1-547.1%38.2%53.9%
Wk 6SEA51.8%31.0%20.8%

Sumer charting (Sumer EPA). Coverage and shell shares are on dropbacks. Personnel counts all charted plays. EPA allowed is Sumer's, lower is better for Denver.

Seattle's run game saw those lighter fronts and stayed below zero. It averaged -0.093 EPA on 24 designed runs: -0.145 against 8 or more in the box and -0.079 against seven or fewer. Across Darnold's first three starts it averaged -0.351, with -0.613 against 8 or more and -0.221 against seven or fewer. Against the Chargers it was -0.023. In the first ten weeks of 2025 it was -0.124, with -0.149 and -0.097.

The passing game looked like the last three weeks. Darnold took every Seattle dropback. He averaged +0.006 EPA per dropback against two-high shells and -0.224 against one-high. In Weeks 3 through 5 he was at -0.003 and -0.276. In the first ten weeks of 2025 he was at +0.340 and +0.341, the same against both. Seattle also all but dropped the bootleg. It ran one Thursday, for -0.761 EPA. In Darnold's first three starts it ran 12 at -0.449. In 2025 he ran 28 at +0.830.

Seattle's offense: 2025, the Chargers game, Thursday and Darnold's first three starts
GameEPA vs two-highEPA vs one-highEPA per run
2025 Wks 1-10+0.281+0.335−0.124
Wk 4−0.181−0.137−0.023
Wk 6+0.006−0.224−0.093
Wks 3-5+0.009−0.276−0.351

Sumer charting, nflverse EPA. All Seattle dropbacks, any passer. Drew Lock played most of Weeks 1-2. Designed runs leave out scrambles and kneels.

A small sample comes with all of this: one game and 24 runs. Denver had put 8 or more in the box on 33.3% to 64.7% of runs in its first five games. Against Seattle it was 20.8%.

Sumer Sports charting, nflverse play-by-play

04Seahawks

Seattle's offense moved the ball. Four plays cost it the game

353
yards for Seattle, more than twice Denver's 168
-0.10
EPA per play
38.8%
success rate

Seattle outgained Denver 353 yards to 168 and still averaged -0.10 EPA per play. Four plays did the most damage. Rashid Shaheed lost a fumble after a 5-yard run to the Denver 30 late in the second quarter, a swing of -4.13 EPA. Jason Myers hit the right upright on a 47-yard field goal in the third quarter, -3.93. Then came Darnold's two interceptions, -3.84 in the fourth quarter and -2.95 in overtime.

There were good moments too. Darnold hit Shaheed for 42 yards on second and 9 in the third quarter, +3.46 EPA. On fourth and 4 with 7:50 left, he found Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 7 yards and a first down, +3.18. Seattle scored on a 55-yard field goal, a George Holani touchdown and two-point conversion at the end of a drive from the Seattle 33, and a 34-yard field goal with 7 seconds left.

Seattle threw it more and spread it out. It used 11 personnel, three receivers, on 72.0% of plays, against 38.0% earlier this season, and lined up in shotgun on 69.5%, against 44.1%. The 25 plays under center averaged -0.45 EPA. Third down was the worst of it, at -0.52 EPA per play on 17 plays, though Seattle converted 7 of 17.

Seattle faced pressure on 44.8% of its dropbacks, close to the 46.9% from earlier this season and above the NFL's 39.5%. The sack rate was 8.6%, against 6.8% earlier. Play action was down to 13.8% of dropbacks from 35.2%, and EPA per dropback was -0.17, against +0.04 earlier.

Seattle's dropbacks, Thursday and earlier this season
This gameEarlier this season
Pressure rate allowed44.8%46.9%
Blitz faced31.0%35.2%
Play action13.8%35.2%
EPA per dropback−0.17+0.04

Sumer charting

The runs were steady but small. Emanuel Wilson carried 14 times for 52 yards and George Holani 5 times for 20. Holani played 56.1% of the offensive snaps. Earlier this season he played 36.0%. With Anthony Bradford on injured reserve, Christian Haynes played 57 snaps at guard. Tory Horton played 45.1% of the snaps, against 22.5% earlier this season.

Seattle's ball carriers in Denver
RunnerCarriesYardsEPA per carrySuccess
E.Wilson1452+0.0442.9%
G.Holani520+0.2340.0%
V.Jones420+0.0650.0%
S.Darnold219+0.9150.0%
R.Shaheed12−4.130.0%

nflverse play-by-play

nflverse play-by-play, Sumer Sports charting

05Seahawks

Denver's passing game stayed short against Seattle

-0.27
EPA per dropback allowed
3.0
yards, the average depth of Denver's targets
20.0%
blitz rate

Denver's throws stayed short. Its average target was 3.0 yards downfield, against 6.7 for Seattle's earlier opponents. Denver averaged -0.27 EPA per dropback. Seattle's earlier opponents averaged -0.14.

Seattle blitzed on 20.0% of dropbacks, a little under its 21.3% earlier this season and below the NFL's 30.1%. It got pressure on 30.0%, against 42.6% earlier. It played man on 16.7% of dropbacks and Cover 6 on 23.3%.

Denver's dropbacks against Seattle
This gameEarlier this season
Pressure rate30.0%42.6%
Blitz rate20.0%21.3%
EPA allowed per dropback−0.27−0.14
Depth of target allowed3.06.7

Sumer charting

Seattle stayed in nickel on 75.4% of snaps and allowed -0.30 EPA per play there. Its 11 snaps in dime went worse, at +0.15, with Denver throwing on 90.9% of them. Nick Emmanwori played 96.5% of the defensive snaps, against 63.1% earlier this season. With Drake Thomas ruled out with an ankle injury, Tyrice Knight played 86.0%.

Seattle's defensive packages in Denver
PackagePlaysThis gameEarlier this seasonEPA allowed, game
Nickel4375.4%67.3%−0.30
Dime1119.3%16.2%+0.15

Sumer charting

Denver's two touchdown drives were the exceptions, and both had help. The first went 79 yards on 16 plays and included a fourth-and-3 conversion. The second went 44 yards on 9 plays, and a face mask penalty on Seattle wiped out a third-and-10 stop.

Sumer Sports charting, nflverse play-by-play

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06Seahawks

Jaxon Smith-Njigba broke his own mark for the best six-game start by a Seahawk

Jaxon Smith-Njigba needed 114 yards Thursday to pass his own mark. He caught 12 of 16 targets for 134 yards. That gives him 49 catches and 717 yards through six games, the most by a Seattle player in the first six games of a season since 1999. The old mark was his 696 from 2025.

Smith-Njigba's receiving yards by week, 2026
05010015020012345612215512876102134

nflverse play-by-play

He has topped 100 yards in five of six games. The one miss was 76 yards against the Chargers. Before him, the best six-game start by a Seahawk since 1999 was Tyler Lockett's 542 yards in 2020.

Seattle's best six-game starts before this season
SeasonPlayerYardsGames
2025Jaxon Smith-Njigba6966
2020Tyler Lockett5426
2006Darrell Jackson5236
2020DK Metcalf5196

nflverse play-by-play. Regular season, Seattle's first six games each year. 2026 holds five games: Thursday's 134 yards are in jsn_2026_by_game.

nflverse play-by-play

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Saturday: final charting from the Denver game, with motion and play action.

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