Seattle is half a game out of the NFC's final playoff spot, and five other teams play this weekend
Here's how to root in every game with stakes for the Seahawks' playoff math.
- 01Who to root for this weekend Free
- 02Darnold took 15 hits in Denver, and it isn't a one-game problem Free
- 03Seattle's quarterbacks are throwing into tighter windows Free
- 04Darnold's sacks have moved to 3rd and long Pick it
- 05Tory Horton's snaps came from the tight ends, not the receivers Pick it
- 06Seattle's is getting into too many obvious passing situations Pick it
- 07Who's giving up the pressure: Lucas has slipped the most Pick it
Who to root for this weekend
Four division leaders hold a playoff spot in the NFC right now: San Francisco, Minnesota, the Giants and Carolina. Three more teams are tied for the three wild card spots at 3-2: Chicago, Detroit and Green Bay. Seattle, at 3-3, sits half a game behind that tie.
| Team | Division | W | L |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF | West | 5 | 0 |
| MIN | North | 5 | 0 |
| NYG | East | 4 | 2 |
| SEA | West | 3 | 3 |
| CHI | North | 3 | 2 |
| DET | North | 3 | 2 |
| GB | North | 3 | 2 |
| CAR | South | 2 | 2 |
nflverse
Root for Atlanta. The Bears are part of that three-way tie for the final wild card spot. Chicago opened as a 3-point favorite and is down to -1.5. Caleb Williams practiced fully all week but is still listed questionable with a hamstring issue.
Root for New Orleans. New York leads the NFC East at 4-2, ahead of Seattle, and the Saints, at 1-4, have nothing left to protect. The line swung from Giants -2.5 at the open to Saints -1.5 now.
Root for Philadelphia. The Panthers lead the NFC South outright at 2-2, half a game ahead of the Eagles at 2-3. A division leader holds a playoff spot regardless of record, so Carolina counts as ahead of Seattle in the race even though the Eagles do not. Philadelphia is the long shot here: Jalen Hurts (calf) and Saquon Barkley (hamstring) are both ruled out, Will Shipley (foot) is out, and A.J. Epenesa (back) is doubtful. The line has swung from Philadelphia -6.5 at the open to Carolina -3 now, a 9.5-point move, but the Eagles are still the ones to root for.
Root for Pittsburgh. It's an NFC team against an AFC team, so the pick is automatic. Tampa Bay is already missing Baker Mayfield (thumb) and Antoine Winfield Jr. (rib). Pittsburgh is favored by 2.5, up from Tampa Bay -1.5 at the open.
Root for Arizona. Both are Seattle's NFC West rivals, so this one cuts against itself. The Rams, at 2-3, are the one still chasing Seattle for second place in the West. The Cardinals, at 1-4, are further out of it. Seattle already beat Arizona 31-7 in Week 2 and still plays the Rams twice, in Weeks 16 and 18. The Rams are favored by 12.5, down from 13.5 at the open.
Root for Dallas. The Packers are the third team in that three-way tie with Chicago and Detroit for the final wild card spot. The Cowboys, at 2-3, aren't in it. Green Bay's line has tightened from -3 to -1.5.
Root for Washington. The 49ers are 5-0, one of two unbeaten teams left in the NFC (Minnesota is the other), and the division leader Seattle has to catch. Washington, at 2-4, isn't chasing anything. San Francisco sat Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Nick Bosa and Mike Evans on Thursday; the final report comes Saturday. San Francisco is favored by 7.5, up from 5.5 at the open.
| Game | Opened | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons | CHI -3 | CHI -1.5 |
| New Orleans Saints at New York Giants | NYG -2.5 | NO -1.5 |
| Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles | PHI -6.5 | CAR -3 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | TB -1.5 | PIT -2.5 |
| Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams | LA -13.5 | LA -12.5 |
| Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers | GB -3 | GB -1.5 |
| Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers | SF -5.5 | SF -7.5 |
ESPN scoreboard. Pulled 2026-10-17 05:49 UTC. Wednesday is our own snapshot, taken on the Wednesday run.
The other six games this week, Texans-Jaguars, Ravens-Browns, Titans-Colts, Jets-Patriots, Chargers-Chiefs and Bills-Raiders, are all AFC matchups. Nothing in them moves Seattle's picture.
nflverse, DraftKings, club injury reports
Darnold took 15 hits in Denver, and it isn't a one-game problem
Denver was one of Sam Darnold's roughest games for hits. He took 15 hits on 56 dropbacks, a 26.8% hit rate, the 2nd worst of his 24 starts with Seattle. Only the Chargers game in Week 4, at 30.8%, was higher. The 15 hits are the most he's taken in any start.
Sacks were closer to the middle of the pack: 5 sacks, an 8.9% sack rate, 8th worst of his 24 starts. His worst sack rate came against the 49ers in Week 5, at 14.3%.
nflverse play-by-play
The trend is the bigger story. His hit rate has climbed every stretch: 12.3% in the 2025 regular season, 16.2% in the 2025 playoffs, 22.1% so far in 2026. His sack rate has climbed too, from 5.3% to 6.1% to 8.0%. Three of his four 2026 starts now sit in his top four for hit rate: the Chargers game is 1st, Denver is 2nd, and the 49ers game is tied for 3rd.
nflverse play-by-play
| Game | Dropbacks | Hits | Hit rate | Sack rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Wk 4 vs LAC | 26 | 8 | 30.8% | 11.5% |
| 2026 Wk 6 at DEN | 56 | 15 | 26.8% | 8.9% |
| 2025 Wk 2 at PIT | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 5.7% |
| 2026 Wk 5 vs SF | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 14.3% |
| 2025 NFC title vs LA | 40 | 7 | 17.5% | 7.5% |
nflverse play-by-play. Rates are per dropback. Hits include sacks. Ranks are worst first among his 24 starts.
The pressure at Denver tells part of why. He was pressured on 26 of 58 dropbacks there and hurried 11 times. His time to throw was 2.72 seconds, the quickest of his four 2026 starts, and his time to pressure was 2.59 seconds. He got the ball out faster than in his other starts this year and still took the most hits of his career in Seattle. The dropback count here, 58, runs a little ahead of the 56 used for his hit and sack rates above; both agree on 15 hits and 5 sacks at Denver.
| Week | Opp | Time to throw | Hits | Sacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | WAS | 3.14 | 5 | 0 |
| Wk 4 | LAC | 3.19 | 8 | 3 |
| Wk 5 | SF | 2.96 | 8 | 5 |
| Wk 6 | DEN | 2.72 | 15 | 5 |
Sumer Sports charting. Hits include sacks. Pressure counts hurries, hits and sacks.
nflverse, Sumer Sports
Seattle's quarterbacks are throwing into tighter windows
Sam Darnold is throwing into tighter coverage in 2026 than he did a year ago, on three separate measures. His tight-window rate, throws with less than a yard of separation when the ball arrives, is up from 13.2% in 2025 to 18.4% in 2026. His contested-ball rate is up from 8.6% to 19.4%. His contested-target rate, a third measure, is up from 11.8% to 15.8%. His 2025 playoffs sat close to his regular-season rate on the first and third measures, 13.2% and 12.8%, and a little higher on the second, 9.9%.
Next Gen Stats via nflverse, FTN charting, Sumer Sports charting
One game carries a lot of the 2026 increase. On the tight-window measure, the Chargers game in Week 4 reached 31.8%, well clear of his other two measured games this year: 17.8% in Week 3 and 10.3% in Week 5.
Denver is the one game only the contested-target measure has covered so far: 7 of 46 targets contested, 15.2%. That sits between his Weeks 3 and 4 numbers, around 20%, and his cleanest game, Week 5 at 7.4%.
| Span | Tight-window throws | Contested ball rate | Contested target rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock, 2026 | 16.7% | 10.4% | 22.9% |
| Sam Darnold, 2026 | 18.4% | 19.4% | 15.8% |
| Sam Darnold, 2025 regular season | 13.2% | 8.6% | 11.8% |
| Sam Darnold, 2025 playoffs | 13.2% | 9.9% | 12.8% |
Next Gen Stats via nflverse, FTN charting, Sumer Sports charting. Tight window: less than a yard of separation when the ball arrives. Contested balls and targets are charted by eye.
Drew Lock's two starts split the three measures. His tight-window rate is close to Darnold's, 16.7% against 18.4%. His contested-ball rate is 10.4%, against Darnold's 19.4%. His contested-target rate is 22.9%, against Darnold's 15.8%. His 48 attempts are too few to call it either way.
The likely read: both quarterbacks' tight-window and contested-target rates sit clearly above Darnold's 2025 baseline, which points to less separation for Seattle's receivers this year, whoever is throwing. The contested-ball measure moved the least for Lock, just 1.8 points above Darnold's 2025 baseline of 8.6%, while Darnold's own 2026 rate on that measure reached 19.4%, more than 10 points above it.
| QB | Week | Targets | Contested | Contested rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 1 | 22 | 4 | 18.2% |
| Drew Lock | 2 | 26 | 7 | 26.9% |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | 44 | 9 | 20.5% |
| Sam Darnold | 4 | 20 | 4 | 20.0% |
| Sam Darnold | 5 | 27 | 2 | 7.4% |
| Sam Darnold | 6 | 46 | 7 | 15.2% |
Sumer Sports charting. Sumer numbers playoff weeks from 1 again, so read Week with Type.
nflverse, FTN, Sumer Sports
Darnold's sacks have moved to 3rd and long
Tory Horton's snaps came from the tight ends, not the receivers
Seattle's is getting into too many obvious passing situations
Who's giving up the pressure: Lucas has slipped the most
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