Tight windows nudge interceptions up. Contested throws barely move the needle.

Sam Darnold has been throwing into tight windows. Does that lead to more interceptions?

Quarterbacks who throw into tight windows take a few more interceptions. Quarterbacks who throw a lot of contested balls barely take any extra.

Across 346 QB seasons with 200 or more attempts from 2016 to 2025, tight-window throws and interception rate move together with a correlation of 0.19. Ranked, it's 0.18. Weighted by attempts, it's 0.20. Call that weak, a small tilt, not a strong signal.

Next Gen Stats via nflverse

Contested balls tell a different story. Across 143 QB seasons from 2022 to 2025, the correlation between contested-ball rate and interception rate is 0.12. Ranked, it drops to 0.05, about zero.

FTN charting, nflverse play-by-play (computed 2026-10-16 by 2026-10-16-tight-windows-and-interceptions.py)

Contested balls don't line up with interception-worthy throws either. That correlation is -0.09, essentially no link.

Next Gen Stats via nflverse, FTN charting, nflverse play-by-play (computed 2026-10-16 by 2026-10-16-tight-windows-and-interceptions.py). 1.00 is a perfect match, 0 is no link at all. Regular season only.

The answer holds at every cutoff. Tight windows run from 0.17 to 0.20 at 100, 200 and 300 attempts. Contested balls bounce between 0.04 and 0.12, below tight windows the whole way.

Next Gen Stats via nflverse, FTN charting, nflverse play-by-play (computed 2026-10-16 by 2026-10-16-tight-windows-and-interceptions.py). Regular season only.

Saturday's issue already looked at Darnold's own tight-window rate this season.

Denver hit Darnold fast, and often

Denver got to Darnold seven times within 2.5 seconds of the snap, the most of any Seattle start. The speed wasn't unusual. The frequency was.

Grey Zabel allowed four pressures in the first quarter at Denver. He allowed none after it.

Grey Zabel allowed four pressures in the first quarter at Denver, then zero on his other 50 pass-block snaps. The help on his side didn't change, and Denver never stopped coming at him.

Brock Bowers beats man coverage. Seattle rarely plays it.

Las Vegas visits Lumen Field in Week 10. Its tight end has turned almost every catch against man coverage into a chunk play this season.

Ernest Jones has sacked the quarterback in three straight games. That ties his career best.

Ernest Jones sacked Bo Nix on Thursday at Denver. It was his third straight game with a sack, after Justin Herbert in Week 4 and Brock Purdy in Week 5.

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That ties his career best. He also had three straight games with a sack in 2023, Weeks 14 through 16. He's never had four in a row.

Jones is tied for Seattle's team sack lead this season with 3, alongside Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy II. He's the only linebacker of the three; the other two are on the line.

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Kenneth Walker III needs 73 yards Sunday to set a Kansas City rushing record.

Before he ever sees his old team, he's on pace for the best 5-game rushing start by a Kansas City player since 1999.

Kansas City is 4-0. The lines expected 2.7 wins, not 4.

Kansas City is 4-0. Based on the moneyline each week, the lines expected it to win 2.7 games, not 4, a gap of 1.3 wins.

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Kansas City ranks 4th in the league in offensive EPA per play, with the 2nd-best rushing offense, and 6th on defense. Its net EPA, offense minus defense, ranks 2nd in the NFL.

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Two of its four wins have come by three points, and in both, Kansas City's defense forced a turnover while giving up none: an interception against Indianapolis in Week 2, then an interception and a lost fumble against Las Vegas in Week 4.

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For the season, Kansas City has forced 7 takeaways against 2 giveaways, a plus-5 margin tied for 2nd in the NFL.

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