Why Seattle can't beat man coverage, and what would fix it

Why Seattle can't beat man coverage, and what would fix it

Kansas City plays man coverage often, and plays it well. Here's why Seattle has fallen apart against it, and eight fixes with the number behind each one.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba projects to beat the only Chiefs corner in the model's Top 20

The model's top projected edge for Seattle this week: Jaxon Smith-Njigba against Nohl Williams, projected for 23 yards on the 18 reps they are likely to share. That's a projected win over a ranked corner, not a weak one. Williams is the only Kansas City cornerback in the model's Top 20, at 15th. Smith-Njigba ranks 1st among its Top 20 receivers.

HB matchup model on Sumer Sports charting. Edges: the model's biggest projected advantages, 'Projected' over the reps shown. Battles: the best even fights between two good players. Same as hawkblogger.com's Matchups to watch.

Up front, George Karlaftis shows up twice. He projects to beat Charles Cross for 0.4 pressures on their 23 shared reps, and to beat Grey Zabel for 0.3 pressures on 7 reps. Karlaftis ranks 4th among the model's Top 13 edge rushers.

The tightest fight on the board is on the interior, and it still favors Kansas City. Creed Humphrey's projected edge over Byron Murphy is just 0.02 pressures on their 14 shared reps, next to nothing. Humphrey ranks 9th of 20 pass-blocking interior linemen, roughly the middle of an already elite group.

Seattle has two projected edges of its own elsewhere. DeMarcus Lawrence projects to beat Jaylon Moore for 0.4 pressures on 16 reps, and Leonard Williams projects for 0.4 extra disruptions against Noah Gray in the run game on 8 reps.

HB matchup model on Sumer Sports charting. Top 20 cornerbacks: Grade is yards per route he takes away on a typical rep, against the receivers he covered. Top 20 pass-blocking interior linemen: Grade is how much he cuts the pressure rate on a typical rep, in percentage points, against the rushers he faced. Top 20 pass-blocking tackles: Grade is how much he cuts the pressure rate on a typical rep, in percentage points, against the rushers he faced. Top 20 receivers: Grade is yards per route he adds on a typical route, against the defenders who covered him. Top 20 run-blocking interior linemen: Grade is how much he cuts the disruption rate on a typical run, in percentage points, against the defenders he faced. Top 20 run-blocking tackles: Grade is how much he cuts the disruption rate on a typical run, in percentage points, against the defenders he faced. Top 13 edge rushers: Grade is how much he raises the pressure rate on a typical rep, in percentage points, against the blockers he faced. Top 15 interior pass rushers: Grade is how much he raises the pressure rate on a typical rep, in percentage points, against the blockers he faced.

Kenneth Walker III grades as Kansas City's best player by value score

One Seahawk's value just jumped. One Chief grades as the best in his own lineup. One cornerback is this week's target.

Seattle's two interior linemen split the work: Murphy rushes, Williams stops the run

On the pass-rush numbers, Leonard Williams is average. The run-defense numbers tell a different story, and so does the Seahawks lineman who's his mirror image.

D'Andre Swift has already matched the Bears' best seven-game touchdown start since 1999

D'Andre Swift has a rushing touchdown in three of Chicago's six games this season: three in the opener, one in Week 5 and two in Week 6. His six already match Thomas Jones's total through seven games in 2005, the most by a Bears player since 1999. One more Thursday night against New England makes it his alone.

nflverse play-by-play

Chicago is a 3 point favorite at home Thursday, with the total set at 50.5. Swift has carried 94 times for 398 yards this season, a 4.2 yard average, and added 140 more yards on 21 targets as a receiver.

nflverse play-by-play

nflverse play-by-play

CeeDee Lamb needs 65 yards Monday for the best Dallas start since 1999

CeeDee Lamb has 577 receiving yards through six games this season, 48 catches. 65 more Monday night at Philadelphia gives him the most receiving yards through seven games by a Dallas player since 1999, passing Miles Austin's 641 from 2010. Six more catches would also pass Amari Cooper's 53, the most receptions through seven games in that span.

nflverse play-by-play

His biggest game was Week 4: 17 catches for 189 yards. Dallas is favored by 4.5 points on the road Monday night, with the total set at 44.5.

nflverse play-by-play

Aidan Hutchinson is making offenses pay for the extra tight end

One personnel grouping is giving him more trouble than any other. It's going the wrong way for the offense.